Statistically Speaking: Actual Draft Value and Speed Scores

This will be my first post looking at this year's draft from a statistical viewpoint.

I wanted to start by judging the trade that Miami made with Indianapolis in the second round. Miami traded the 56th pick to the Colts for the 61st and 165th picks.

I was curious to see what the draft trade chart had to say about the trade, but rather than using the relatively useless old version of the chart, I'm instead using the updated "Actual Draft Value Chart" published by Pro Football Prospectus.

According to the ADV Chart, Miami gave up 1240 points of value in return for 1318 points (1145+173).

So not only did Miami get an additional player out of the deal (S Chris Clemons), they also came out on top in terms of value. The trade looked like a good deal at the time, and the numbers bear that out.

*****

Miami may not have drafted any running backs this year, but they did sign Anthony Kimble as an undrafted free agent out of Stanford.

Football Outsiders discovered a metric which bears a strong correlation with the future performance of running backs known as the Speed Score.

Here is the formula for this metric: (WEIGHT * 200)/(40 TIME^4)

What the Speed Score does is more accurately reflect a player's true speed, by taking into account the body frame being propelled forward. It's essentially a 40 time adjusted for weight and placed on a 100-point scale.

A 267 lb. RB who can traverse 40 yards in 4.56 seconds (Brandon Jacobs) is better equipped to succeed than a 198 lb. RB who does it in the same amount of time (Ahmad Bradshaw) because of the power behind that speed. In general, any speed score below 100 is poor, while the greater one's score is over 100, the better.

So let's take a look at the Speed Scores for this year's running backs:

Player	School	40 Time	Weight	Speed Score
Andre Brown	North Carolina State	4.49	224	110.2
Cedric Peerman	Virginia	4.45	216	110.2
Ian Johnson	Boise State	4.46	212	107.2
Javarris Williams	Tennessee State	4.52	223	106.9
Beanie Wells	Ohio State	4.59	235	105.9
Kory Sheets	Purdue	4.47	208	104.2
Donald Brown	Connecticut	4.51	210	101.5
Rashad Jennings	Liberty	4.64	231	99.7
Shonn Greene	Iowa	4.63	227	98.8
Mike Goodson	Texas A&M	4.54	208	97.9
Chris Ogbannaya	Texas	4.61	220	97.4
Marlon Lucky	Nebraska	4.59	216	97.3
Knowshon Moreno	Georgia	4.60	217	96.9
James Davis	Clemson	4.61	218	96.5
Glen Coffee	Alabama	4.58	209	95.0
Jeremiah Johnson	Oregon	4.61	209	92.5
Bernard Scott	Abilene Christian	4.56	200	92.5
Anthony Kimble	Stanford	4.66	216	91.6
Javon Ringer	Michigan State	4.60	205	91.6
Brandon Ore	West Liberty State	4.67	214	90.0
Tyrell Sutton	Northwestern	4.66	211	89.5
Gartrell Johnson	Colorado State	4.71	219	89.0
Kahlil Bell	UCLA	4.68	212	88.4

Obviously, I wasn't expecting much, given the fact that Kimble went undrafted, but 91.6 is a really poor Speed Score and it doesn't portend well for his future success.

While the Speed Score is not a foolproof metric, it is far more hit than miss. Of course, he does have kick return experience so perhaps he could prove to be of some use in that area.

So did Miami have any better options (according to Speed Score)? Well, Kory Sheets (104.2) went undrafted and attended the 49ers minicamp on a tryout basis. Ian Johnson (107.2) also went undrafted and signed with the Vikings. I think either of those two players would have been a better option than Kimble.

Of course, I really just wish Miami had found a way to hold onto Jalen Parmele, who they drafted last year in the sixth round. He had a Speed Score of 112.2.