Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Reader Question: D-Line/O-Line Upgrades

Today, I'd like to answer a couple of questions I received from a reader:

What positions on the Dolphins O line and D line are in need of an upgrade? Do you think Samson Satele is able to play a position other than center?

As far as the D-line goes, the biggest upgrades this team needs have to do with youth that we can get into the system and develop into starters and significant rotation players. Jason Ferguson can get the job done in 2009 and maybe 2010, but it's not a good idea to go the Keith Traylor route that we went down a few years back, where we signed an old nose tackle and then just rode him till the wheels came off essentially, without ever grooming his replacement.

The nose tackle is the linchpin position in our defense, and it would be unwise to ignore it this offseason. Ferguson is going to need to take more plays off every year going forward, and neither myself nor the team is sold on Paul Soliai as his replacement. It's critical to get another young NT onto the team and start grooming him.

As for the defensive ends, I'm okay with Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford as our future starters, but again, we need more quality depth behind them. We can't count on Vonnie Holliday being back next season, and if he leaves, the rotation certainly takes a hit. Randy Starks can certainly fill a lot of Holliday's snaps, but there is a need for someone else. It's not a huge priority considering the other needs on this team, but it is a need.

On the opposite side of the ball, we are really only set at left tackle with Jake Long. If we re-sign Vernon Carey, then we will also be set at right tackle. I think continuity along the line is one of the most underrated aspects of its success, and unless there is a tremendously better option available to replace Carey, I think we should re-sign him. If we don't, it just creates a massive hole that can only be filled through a big contract, a high draft pick, or both.

Justin Smiley and Donald Thomas should go into training camp as the starters at left and right guard respectively, but their health is a major question. We can't just assume they will be at 100%. Smiley's shoulder injuries are especially problematic because they continue to happen. We don't know how good Donald Thomas really is, and the promise he showed last year may be reality or a fluke. We can't assume he'll be able to step right back into the starting lineup this season and provide a much better option than Ikechuku Ndukwe.

And then we get to center. It recently came out that Samson Satele played much of 2008 with a shoulder injury. That could go a long way in explaining why his play dropped off so noticeably from his rookie season. If he can get back to full health in time for training camp, I think he should be given another opportunity to claim the starting center spot, but if he can't, he does provide great flexibility as a backup since he can play both guard spots and center.

Nevertheless, that's a lot of questions surrounding the middle of the offensive line, and the team should not put all of its eggs in one basket by simply hoping all the players will return fully healthy and without diminished abilities. More quality depth is needed at every position along the line.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

New column up

Just a quick heads up.

My newest "Numbers Can't Lie" column at The Phinsider is up. It looks at some community projections that were done before the season and compares them to what the players actually produced.

Check it out.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Franchise sale to become official today

Stephen Ross will officially become the Dolphins' majority owner today, when Wayne Huizenga completes the sale of the franchise.

The sale will give Ross 95% ownership of the team, while Huizenga will maintain a 5% share.

The sale had been on hold for some time as Ross struggled to line up his investors' financing, but Huizenga agreed to defer less than one-third of the payments in order to facilitate the transaction.

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald,

Ross has been considering candidates for a CEO-type role on the business side. He earlier had discussions with former U.S. Tennis Association President Arlen Kantarian. Once the sale is completed, Dolphins executive vice president Bill Parcells would have a 30-day window in which he could collect the remaining $12 million on his four-year, $16 million contract and leave the franchise.

Parcells has declined to comment, but Huizenga has said that Parcells has indicated he will remain with the franchise.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Cameron Wake chooses Miami; Ethan Kilmer also signed

Miami has started its free agent shopping a bit early this year, as they became the eventual winners in a reported 8-team competition for the services of DE/OLB Cameron Wake.

Wake (6'3", 240 lbs.) is a two-time CFL defensive player of the year. He was originally signed as a rookie free agent by the New York Giants in 2005. He has spent the past two years playing for the British Columbia Lions where he has racked up 39 sacks and 8 forced fumbles. He is 25 years old.

He signed a four-year contract worth nearly $3.6 million with nearly $1 million in guarantees.

Although the contract seems a bit lengthy for such a prospect-type player who may not pan out at the NFL-level, I think it's a relatively cheap investment for a player who could reap big rewards, especially as a pass rusher. I suspect the team will move him to outside linebacker, and it'll be interesting to monitor his progress there during the offseason.

The Dolphins also signed S Ethan Kilmer. Kilmer (6'0", 204 lbs.) was a college teammate of Wake's at Penn State and is also 25 years old. He was a seventh-round draft pick of the Bengals in 2006. During his rookie season, he played in all 16 games, recording 18 special teams tackles. He will likely compete for a spot on the roster as a special teams contributor.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

DeGuglielmo is new OL coach

Miami wasted no time filling their vacancy at offensive line coach by hiring New York Giants assistant offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo today.

He has worked for the Giants since 2005. During that time, the Giants have finished in the top ten in Adjusted Line Yards each season.

He also has experience working with Tony Sparano, as they worked at Boston University together in 1993.

This would appear to be an immediate upgrade over Mike Maser.

*****

In other news, my second "Numbers Can't Lie" column is now posted over at The Phinsider.

It deals mainly with fan expectations for Ted Ginn and what his ultimate ceiling may be. Check it out.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

OL Coach Mike Maser fired

Chris Mortensen of ESPN is reporting that Miami's offensive line coach Mike Maser has been fired.

A lot of people have been expressing some surprise over this move, which I don't really understand.

First off, just because this team overachieved its expectations by a huge margin does not mean that it should now just sit pat and refrain from any and all changes.

Second, did this offensive line perform all that well this year?

Sure, Jake Long and Justin Smiley played great, but they are already great players. What did the other guys achieve? To me, it was pretty clear that Maser failed in his duties as a coach to improve the progress of the young players and the guys forced in starting roles due to injuries.

For instance:
  • Samson Satele regressed significantly after coming off a promising rookie season.
  • Ikechuku Ndukwe's play at right guard was so uninspiring that the team had to alternate series between he and Andy Alleman.
  • Vernon Carey, coming off an above-average season at LT, was moved back to his natural right tackle position, and he seemed to lose his dominance in the run game, and took a step back overall. And this happened in a contract year.
  • Rookie G Shawn Murphy was taught only the left guard position - a failure of Maser's to get him some position flexibility while he is still young. Also, the team traded up in the fourth-round to get Murphy and he was inactive for every single game this year. That's unacceptable and a large portion of that blame must rest with Maser.
So, don't be so surprised that this move happened. Change is good, and in this case, I think it's obvious that change was necessary. There were reasons beyond simple personnel issues that prevented the Dolphins from successfully running out of their base formations all year long. The Wildcat did its job, but the team shouldn't have had to rely so heavily on it. A lot of that is Maser's fault.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Possible Free Agent Targets

Omar Kelly, of the Sun-Sentinel, recently posted a list of six players he believes the Dolphins would be interested in once free agency begins.

Kelly also notes that Miami currently has about $24 million in cap space. That is a great deal of available cash, easily within the top third of the league I would guess.

Having that kind of money immediately puts Miami in play for the big-time blue-chip players. But should Miami deal out that kind of money for one or two players or spend it over multiple middle of the road role players as they were wont to do last offseason?

Let's take a look at his list and see who would be a good fit:
  • CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland. Like anyone who follows the Football Outsiders, I have a big thing for Asomugha. He is easily the best cornerback in the league, and is likely one of the best CBs that has come into the league in quite some time. Asomugha so completely and utterly locks down the opposing receiver he is matched up with that QBs rarely even bother to look in his direction, never mind actually throw the ball that way. FO actually had to alter their minimum standards for their CB metrics last season because Asomugha was not targeted enough to be ranked among the other 60+ starting CBs. Now, Oakland lacked a good-enough CB opposite Asomugha that QBs could just force-feed the ball away from him. That wouldn't happen in Miami. Will Allen is a top-15 CB, despite little recognition as such, and combining the two would make passing against Miami's CBs absolute hell for the other team. That extra half-second or second of coverage time also would go a long way towards helping out the deficient pass-rush. It's unlikely at this point that Nnamdi will even make it to free agency, despite his obvious desires to leave that team, since Oakland can franchise tag him. Still, Oakland has done more idiotic things than let someone of his caliber get away. If he does somehow make it onto the market, Miami has to be big players in the running for him. He is going to come with a prohibitively large contract, but as I see it, he's worth every penny of it. He's still only 27 years old, he doesn't have an injury concerns, and he's a stand-up player off the field. Miami had better get ready to open their wallets for this guy.
  • S O.J. Atogwe, St. Louis. Kelly really likes Atogwe and wants him to come to Miami; it's something he's been clamoring for all year. He does have a propensity to come up with big interceptions, but besides that he isn't all that exciting to me. Kelly cites his 11 career fumble recoveries as more proof of his play-making ability. Let me repeat: Fumble recoveries are random occurrences and do not have any bearing on a player's prospects of future success. He is also very poor in pass coverage - something that our free safety cannot afford, since Yeremiah Bell plays down in the box so much. I would rather re-sign Renaldo Hill to a cheaper contract (Atogwe likely won't come cheap) or sign some other mid-level player to take Hill's spot.
  • C Jason Brown, Baltimore. Samson Satele took a lot of flack this year for his regression, and justifiably so. The promise he showed in his rookie year faded fast. So the question remains, which one is the real Satele? It's clearly too early to give up on him entirely (as in cutting him), but the team needs to bring in better competition for the starting center spot. I don't think Al Johnson is going to cut it. Then again, the coaches were using Andy Alleman at center when they acquired him, but injuries to the guard position forced a switch. Perhaps once Justin Smiley is fully recovered, the team will move Alleman back to center and have him compete with Satele. Another option would be to bring in Brown. I don't think Satele has too many problems with pass blocking; my main concern with him is his run-blocking. And in that regard Brown certainly trumps him. But if you go back and look at Baltimore's run-blocking success behind Brown in Brown's first years with the team, he was awful. It's simply the case that immediately inserting highly-drafted rookie offensive linemen into the starting lineup tends to bring with it a decline in performance as those players adjust to the NFL. That could be the case with Satele, or it might not be. Does that uncertainty warrant paying out a big contract to Brown? I say no.
  • MLB Karlos Dansby, Arizona. Dansby is likely headed for another franchise tag, so it's unlikely that he'll hit the market. If he does, however, and Miami decides that they aren't bringing back Channing Crowder (I think they should re-sign him), Miami should certainly be interested. He can play in a 3-4 and he is still young. However, this year's draft seems to have a lot of talented high-end LBs, and with the 25th selection, Miami will be in prime position to take one of them. I think I'd prefer that option over signing Dansby.
  • DE Julius Peppers, Carolina. There's little doubt that Peppers is an elite player. Even so, he's already being over-payed for what he provides ($14+ million cap hit this year). If he hits the market, I don't think he'll be looking to take a pay decrease. That means the disparity between his performance and pay will only grow. Besides, Miami already has its two DEs of the future lined up in Kendall Langford and Phillip Merling.
  • ILB Bart Scott, Baltimore. Out of Baltimore's tremendous linebacking corps (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Scott) Scott is probably the least heralded. He's an even better run-stopper than Crowder, but I'm not sold on his coverage skills. He'd probably represent a slight upgrade in pass rushing as well. But Channing is 3 years younger. It's a tough call between the two, and would largely hinge on how much money Scott is asking for. He's definitely a target though.

Phins sign 8; move up in the Draft

Miami got some good news over the weekend as the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles won their respective playoff games, thereby moving the Dolphins' draft position up one spot from the 26th selection to the 25th selection.

Miami also signed an OLB along with 7 of its practice squad players from this season to reserve/future contracts.

The OLB, Tearrius George, is a former CFL defensive end, who spent most of 2008 on the Cowboys' practice squad before being added to the Saints' 53-man roster in December. He was not active for any games while with New Orleans. George (6'4", 258 lbs.) is 26 years old.

The practice squad players that were signed are:
  • WR Anthony Armstrong
  • WR Todd Lowber
  • CB Scorpio Babers
  • CB Will Billingsley
  • DT Joe Cohen
  • FB Chris Brown
  • RB Lex Hilliard
Signing these players now allows them to participate in Miami's offseason conditioning program.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Final 2008 Wildcat numbers and a new gig

I recently was asked if I would like to write a weekly column for the great Dolphins site The Phinsider, so I will now be posting fresh content over there, generally on Thursdays.

My first column, titled "Numbers Can't Lie," went up today.

It features my final Wildcat tables of the season, including the playoff game, and some general observations about its effectiveness.

So go check it out.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Hooray! The King (Carl story) is dead! (for now)

According to the Associated Press, via the Sun-Sentinel, Carl Peterson has said that he will not be taking any kind of job with the Miami Dolphins.

As I talked about on Monday, there is nothing good that could come from having Peterson involved with this franchise.

Of course, this doesn't rule out the possibility of Peterson's name popping up again later on down the road. ProFootballTalk.com raised an interesting point having to do with future majority owner Stephen Ross and his troubles lining up the $500 million that he needs to finalize the transaction. If the sale is ultimately put on hold, which it appears it may be, then Wayne Huizenga will retain control over the franchise, and thus Bill Parcells would be unable to exercise his opt-out clause.

However, once the sale finally does go through, don't be surprised if Ross once again pokes around his old pal Peterson to see if he's interested in a job. I hope Ross will wisen up by then, but you never know.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Reader Mailbag: Early Draft talk

Here's an email I received from a reader:

What position do you think they need to fill with their first pick in the draft? I think you have to take whatever top lineman is available for either the offense or defense that fills a need. I'm thinking C, OG or NT.

I am of the opinion that all early round picks (rounds 1-4) should almost exclusively be used on the best player available. There are some exceptions, particularly with quarterbacks, but Miami doesn't need to use a high draft pick on a QB this year so that's not a concern.

I'm also generally against drafting running backs really high, since apart from the true greats, that position is incredibly fungible.

So QB and RB are really the only two positions I'd ignore in the first round this year.

Your idea to take the best lineman available is a sound one, since Miami needs help on both lines. The problem, however, is that Miami shouldn't reach for one of these positions if the player isn't worth the draft slot. Remember, Miami has Washington's second-round pick this year (around pick 44 I believe), so they won't have to wait too long between picks.

I think Miami should also strongly consider taking a pass rushing linebacker, physical shut-down cornerback, or big-bodied possession receiver with their first pick, if the right value is there.

I've yet to really start studying the draft class, but some guys to possibly keep an eye on for Miami's first pick include CB Vontae Davis, LB James Laurinaitis, LB Brian Cushing, NT B.J. Raji, and C Max Unger.

After free agency gets under way, we'll be able to talk about the draft and Miami's needs with some more clarity.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Good news/bad news: Who to believe?

Before Sunday's playoff game, I felt a little nervous after reading a report that said former Chiefs GM Carl Peterson was heading to Miami as Bill Parcell's replacement.

I felt this way for two reasons:
  1. It would mean that Parcells was leaving his latest project after a single year on the job. While I think the team could continue its rebuilding without him, I think it'll go smoother if he stays on for at least one more season.
  2. It would mean that presumptive new owner Stephen Ross was already dabbling in the football side of the operation - a place that he should have absolutely no say. Yes, he may be the new owner very shortly, but to be successful as an owner, you absolutely have to know when to delegate responsibility. If true that Ross is itching to get back with a longtime partner, regardless of his competency, a very bad precedent is being set as far as how much sway the owner will have.
And let's make no mistake here. Carl Peterson was an abject failure in Kansas City. Dolphins fans should want no part of him with their franchise.

That's why I was relieved (somewhat) to hear after the game, that Wayne Huizenga declared that Parcells would be staying in Miami. I say somewhat because you can never truly trust what these people say to the media.

I figured if Parcells wasn't going anywhere, then that probably closed to door to Peterson's arrival.

Well, that could be wrong if Armando Salguero is right (hey, it's possible I guess). He's reporting that Peterson was not only at Sunday's playoff game, but he was on the field with Ross...wearing a Dolphins lapel pin...and speaking about the Dolphins using terms like "we" and"we're."

Uh-oh.

So does this mean that Parcells staying is no sure thing? Or that Peterson may be brought in to some other front office role? Either way, it's bad news for the Dolphins, in my opinion. Peterson is a complete failure in the NFL and I don't want him to have any say over any aspect of this team.

Stay tuned.

...And then it was over


I've been trying to put my finger on exactly how I felt after this loss, and the end to this season.

In all honesty, I wasn't overly saddened.

Dissapointed? Sure, in some respects. I didn't agree with some of the coaching philosophy in the game and several players played poorly. But I wasn't angry, surprised, or upset.

I went into this season thinking that a really good year would net about six wins. I purposefully measured my expectations so as to avoid the monumental disappointment that comes from manufactured and overly bright perceptions.

And then magic happened.

Chad Pennington fell into our laps from all the way up in New York, and the team just took off, providing us with one of the most remarkable seasons in memory.

But the success of this one season did not change any of my expectations. This was still a team with a long-term plan, and any short-term successes are just icing on the cake - proof that the rebuilding effort is on the right track.

Did this team deserve to be in the playoffs this year? Absolutely they did. That doesn't mean they were true Super Bowl contenders though. That status is still a year or two down the road.

So I guess I didn't feel any of those negative feelings I talked about to begin with, because I simply felt hopeful...and proud.

Hopeful, because I didn't get the feeling that this achievement was fleeting. In no way are the playoffs now a guaranteed event in Miami, but there won't be anymore postseason droughts there either.

And proud, because this team is simply easy to cheer for. They have heart, they have grit, and for the most part they routinely display the kind of attitude that makes you appreciate the fact that the aqua and orange is your team - our team.

Thanks for the great season, guys.

Friday, January 2, 2009

Wildcat By The Numbers Week 17

I'll still track the success of the Wildcat for however long Miami stays in the playoffs, but here are the final, complete tables for the regular season.



Plays
Run
Pass
Yards
Yds/Play
FDs
TDs
Week 3, @NE
6
5
1
119
19.8
1
4
Week 5, SD
10
9
1
48
4.8
3
1
Week 6, @HOU
7
6
1
77
11
0
1
Week 7, BAL
5
5
0
4
0.8
0
0
Week 8, BUF
7
7
0
34
4.9
3
0
Week 9, @ DEN
4
3
1
-5
-1.3
0
0
Week 10, SEA
6
6
0
80
13.3
0
2
Week 11, OAK
10
10
0
52
5.2
1
0
Week 12, NE
8
8
0
25
3.1
1
0
Week 13, @ STL
2
2
0
2
1
0
0
Week 14, @ BUF
6
6
0
5
0.8
1
0
Week 15, SF
1
1
0
16
16
1
0
Week 16, @ KC
4
4
0
57
14.3
1
0
Week 17, @ NYJ
10
8
2
55
5.5
3
0
Total
86
80
6
585
6.8
15
8
Avg./Game
6.1
5.7
.4
42
-
1.1
.6



Plays
FDs (non-penalty)
FD%
TDs
TD%
Run Avg
Non-WC Plays
863
280
32%
30
3%
4.0 yds
WC Plays
86
15
17%
8
9%
6.3 yds



Runs
Yards
Avg
FDs
TDs
Ronnie Brown
52
305
5.9
9
5
Ricky Williams
26
153
5.9
5
1
Patrick Cobbs
2
47
23.5
1
0


It had become clear that Miami was purposefully holding back on their Wildcat plays in the weeks leading up to the showdown against the Jets. That conservative strategy proved to be a very smart idea, as Miami unleashed 10 Wildcat plays (tied for the most times it's been used in a game), with several new wrinkles added in.

For the first time since Week 9, the Dolphins attempted a pass out of the formation (two actually). The plays were designed beautifully, and if not for some terrible execution (Ricky's wide open drop, Ronnie's off-target pass) the numbers for this game would have been even better.

Still, the formation did its job, picking up 3 first downs, and leading to another big play for Ronnie Brown. It has been three weeks in a row now that the formation has yielded a running play of over 15 yards.

The touchdowns have dried up over the second half of the season, but the big plays are still there to be had.

One thing that is very interesting to me about the season-long performances of both Ronnie and Ricky in the Wildcat is how similar their outputs were. Yes, Ronnie had twice as many carries as Ricky, but their per carry averages are exactly the same, and they picked up first downs at the same clip as well. Ronnie saw the endzone more often out the Wildcat, but that is because he saw most of the redzone touches from the formation.

Baltimore completely shut down the Wildcat the last time they played. I don't have high hopes for its success this time, unless they can sneak off an unexpected pass play.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Special Teams Coverage Review (End of Season)

Continuing on with my series of periodic looks at the most active members of Miami's special teams coverage units, I have assembled this table compiling special teams tackles and forced fumbles:


Tkl
Ast
Comb
FF
Jason Allen
14
2
16

Charlie Anderson
12
1
13

Akin Ayodele

1
1

Davone Bess
1

1

Courtney Bryan
3

3

Dan Carpenter
3

3

Patrick Cobbs
13
3
16

Brannon Condren
2
1
3

Casey Cramer
4
2
6

Chris Crocker
1

1

Tyrone Culver
3
6
9

John Denney
3
1
4

Boomer Grigsby
1

1

Renaldo Hill
3

3

Nathan Jones
7
2
9

William Kershaw
2

2
1
Michael Lehan
2
1
3

Brandon London
5
1
6

David Martin
3
1
4
1
Quentin Moses
1

1

Lousaka Polite
1

1

Joey Thomas
1

1

Reggie Torbor
8
3
11

Erik Walden
4
1
5



Much like it has been all season long, Jason Allen and Patrick Cobbs finished as the most active members of the special teams coverage units. Both finished the season with 16 special teams tackles after posting 8 and 4 tackles respectively last season.

If I had added in Erik Walden's 10 tackles that he recorded on Kansas City's special teams, he would have finished in second place on the team. There is little doubt in my mind that his addition to these units has made a tremendous difference.