Friday, February 29, 2008

Ernest Wilford signed

According to the Miami Herald, WR Ernest Wilford has been signed.

Wilford (6'4", 223 lbs.) was a fourth-round draft pick of the Jaguars in 2004. He is 29 years old.

Wilford provides a big, tough target to start opposite Ted Ginn, and his skill set compliments Ginn nicely. Wilford has demonstrated an ability to go over the middle and consistently catch the ball, and he is also a solid run blocker.

Here are Wilford's career stats:

==========
YEARTEAM G REC YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST
2004JAC15 19 271 14.3 46 2 11 0 0
2005JAC16 41 681 16.6 39 7 35 0 0
2006JAC16 36 524 14.6 41 2 27 1 1
2007JAC16 45 518 11.5 35 3 35 0 0
Career 63 141 1994 14.1 46 14 108 1 1
==========

Here's a chart I've organized, using the Football Outsiders metrics, to analyze Wilford's performance over his career. To put it simply, "
DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value. DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.":


DPAR
DPAR Rank
DVOA
DVOA Rank
Targets
Catch %
2004
2.5
--
-5.4%
--
35
54%
2005
18.8
21
22.8%
8
74
55%
2006
2.3
63
-10.7%
63
74
49%
2007
11.9
48
9.1%
31
74
61%

Wilford wasn't targeted enough in his rookie season to qualify for a ranking, but he was incredibly good in his sophomore season. His 2005 metrics certainly surprised me. He slipped a bit in 2006, but last year may be the best representation of Wilford's abilities, as it falls in the middle of his two extremes. If that's the case, then Miami got itself a top-35 receiver to start opposite Ted Ginn. Those metrics reinforce that this was a good move by the team.

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