Sunday, October 25, 2009

Week 7 vs. Saints Prediction

I am very happy to have been wrong in my prediction for Miami's last game. Miami's awesome Monday night victory pushed my season record to 2-3.

And now that the bye week is over, Miami faces its toughest challenge far.

If we thought Indy's offense was potent - well, New Orleans' is better. So even if the Dolphins execute the same offensive game plan as they did against the Colts to perfection, holding the ball for over 40 minutes and making good on scoring opportunities, 20 minutes is more than enough for Drew Brees and company to overcome any deficit no matter the size.

And make no mistake, the Saints will score their points. And Miami will likely score its share as well (though the Saints defense is surprisingly elite so far this year). If Miami is going to have any chance in this game it will come down to their defense finally stepping up and shutting an opposing passing attack down, even if for only a drive or two. I'm not confident they can accomplish that right now. The safeties and linebackers are just begging other teams to throw right at them.

Miami played a nearly perfect offensive game against the Colts and still lost. The margin for error is that small. And now they play an even better team. It's hard to expect perfection again coupled with a better defensive effort. Big special teams plays could seriously help Miami's chances, but they haven't proven themselves capable of those yet either.

I have to pick the Saints to win this week.

After the win over the Jets and last week's bye, Miami's playoff chances have grown to 15.5%

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