Sunday, January 20, 2008

Maser OL Analysis

I wanted to take a look at how our new OL coach Mike Maser has fared in the recent past during his stint with the Carolina Panthers.

I've organized this chart using the excellent statistics provided by Football Outsiders.

Full explanations of these stats can be found here.

Here are the brief explanations (taken from Football Outsiders):

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
  • Losses: 120% value
  • 0-4 Yards: 100% value
  • 5-10 Yards: 50% value
  • 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, and opponent, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry (current baseline: 4.08).

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:
  • RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
  • 10+ Yards: Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.
  • Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
  • Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).


Adj. Line Yards
RB Yards
Power Success
Power Rank
10+ Yards
10+ Rank
Stuffed
Stuffed Rank
Sack Rank
Sacks
Adj. Sack Rate
2003 Panthers
4.23
4.31
64%
19
16%
14
23%
14
10
26
5.4%
2004 Panthers
3.92
3.80
61%
16
15%
26
25%
19
9
33
5.8%
2005 Panthers
4.17
3.62
60%
22
12%
26
22%
6
11
27
5.6%
2006 Panthers
4.02
3.98
50%
31
17%
12
25%
22
8
32
5.2%
2007 Panthers (w/o Maser)
4.11
4.07
63%
16
14%
20
25%
22
15
33
6.4%
2007 Dolphins
4.09
4.22
70%
8
17%
16
23%
12
20
42
7.4%

Here's what I take out of that information.

First off, it seems like Maser's lines are much more successful when in pass protection than in run blocking. During his four year stint with the Panthers, the OL's sack rank was never lower than 11th in the league. That's a good sign.

On the other hand, the running statistics are less favorable, particularly the power rank. His Carolina lines never finished in the top half of the league in this stat. This was an area that excelled this year under Hudson Houck, and it is a vital category for a run-heavy and/or struggling offensive unit. The Power Success category is the key for achieving first downs and keeping drives alive. It seems that Maser's lines have had a problem in this area.

Also, after Maser was fired by Carolina, it seems that the OL improved slightly, although certainly not by any dramatic amount (especially compared to his pre-2006 seasons).

Still, Houck's resume is much more impressive, and it's a shame that Miami chose to go in another direction.

Of course, our new head coach is an offensive line guru himself, so I am sure that he will have his say in terms of that unit's philosophy and development. In any case, it will be very interesting and crucial to monitor whether the OL takes another step forward next season or whether it experiences a regression.

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