- I think it's safe to say that win-or-lose, Miami is one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the NFL, and in recent memory.
- New minority-owner Marc Anthony did a tremendous job singing the pre-game national anthem. Really good stuff.
- Lousaka Polite had a great game throwing huge blocks for Ronnie and Ricky.
- That PI call on Will Allen was a disgraceful call.
- What's with all of the people getting so outraged over the fact that the referee made the first penalty announcement in Spanish? Talk about xenophobia.
- Anyone who continues to call Miami's use of the Wildcat a gimmick, or a joke, is just flat-out ignorant. You can call the Jets' pathetic attempt at it a gimmick, but Miami is clearly on another level with this stuff, and it's simply a huge, regular, and effective part of their offensive game plan. Deal with it.
- Chad Henne made a declaration in this game. I have had my doubts about him, and one game doesn't change everything, but it certainly changes some things about how I look at him. His poise is unbelievable. He essentially led this offense on three separate comebacks in the fourth quarter.
- Ted Ginn and Anthony Fasano, welcome to the season. Nice of you to finally show up.
- Not enough praise can be given to this offensive line and tight ends for the spectacular job they did in protecting Henne and giving him plenty of time to make throws. That being said, Jake Grove got used and abused on more than one occasion by Kris Jenkins - the kind of big NT in the AFC East that he was specifically brought in here to beat.
- Of special note - Justin Smiley was a freaking snow plow on that game-winning Wildcat run, pulling from his left guard spot and absolutely exploding open a running lane for Ronnie to follow straight to paydirt.
- I know I'm not the only fan who was sweating bullets when out of nowhere, Sparano decides that the game-deciding drive with less than four minutes in the fourth quarter against a divisional rival was the perfect time to put Pat White in the game for his first snaps of the day. I think my heart skipped a beat when he almost tripped over his own feet before that first down run. Very lucky that those plays didn't backfire, but I like the idea of getting him more involved over the next few games.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Week 5 vs. Jets Recap
Quick hits on the fantastic Monday night game:
Cobbs' season over; Sheets signed
When Patrick Cobbs ran a reverse out of the Wildcat formation late in Monday night's game against the Jets, he finished the play on the ground out of bounds and in obvious pain.
It's now been revealed that he tore his ACL and has been placed on Injured Reserve, ending his season.
Even though Cobbs was the third string running back, his loss is still significant. Cobbs made an impact in almost every phase of the game - particularly as a key contributor to the Wildcat and an all-around special teams ace. Those roles will not be easily filled.
Miami's decision to keep four RBs to start the season will now pay off, as Lex Hilliard moves up the depth chart. In Cobbs' absence, Ted Ginn should begin to see all of the kickoff return duties, which actually should be an upgrade.
I thought that Miami would use Cobbs' open roster spot to active Matt Roth from the NFI list once he's eligible after this week, but the team went ahead and signed RB Kory Sheets off of the 49ers' practice squad. I believe the rule about signing another team's practice squad players is that Miami must now keep Sheets on the 53-man roster for a minimum of three weeks.
Sheets (5'11, 208) was an undrafted free agent out of Purdue this past year. And if you remember, I actually pointed out that he would have been a better option to bring on board for training camp than Anthony Kimble due to his pretty good Speed Score of 104.2, 6th best in this past year's running back draft class.
Sheets is not a bruiser; he's a finesse back who excels as a receiving option. Here is one pre-draft analysis of him:
Sheets was a pretty good kick returner in college, so perhaps the coaches are looking for him to contribute in that area.
It's now been revealed that he tore his ACL and has been placed on Injured Reserve, ending his season.
Even though Cobbs was the third string running back, his loss is still significant. Cobbs made an impact in almost every phase of the game - particularly as a key contributor to the Wildcat and an all-around special teams ace. Those roles will not be easily filled.
Miami's decision to keep four RBs to start the season will now pay off, as Lex Hilliard moves up the depth chart. In Cobbs' absence, Ted Ginn should begin to see all of the kickoff return duties, which actually should be an upgrade.
I thought that Miami would use Cobbs' open roster spot to active Matt Roth from the NFI list once he's eligible after this week, but the team went ahead and signed RB Kory Sheets off of the 49ers' practice squad. I believe the rule about signing another team's practice squad players is that Miami must now keep Sheets on the 53-man roster for a minimum of three weeks.
Sheets (5'11, 208) was an undrafted free agent out of Purdue this past year. And if you remember, I actually pointed out that he would have been a better option to bring on board for training camp than Anthony Kimble due to his pretty good Speed Score of 104.2, 6th best in this past year's running back draft class.
Sheets is not a bruiser; he's a finesse back who excels as a receiving option. Here is one pre-draft analysis of him:
Sheets is an effective north/south ball handler who can create his own yardage. He has been productive as a running back and pass catcher, and Sheets offers a lot of potential at the next level as a third-down back/situational runner.
Sheets was a pretty good kick returner in college, so perhaps the coaches are looking for him to contribute in that area.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Week 5 vs. Jets Prediction
Let me start off this prediction post by addressing a question I received from a reader about tonight's matchup:
It would be a miracle if Wake could produce the same huge game two weeks in a row. For starters, Joey Porter will most likely be back in the starting lineup, which will bump Wake back down the depth chart and limit Wake's opportunities to rush the QB. Secondly, Wake won't have the pleasure of facing an injury-ravaged offensive line (which wasn't spectacular to begin with) like he did versus the Bills. And finally, a lot of Miami's pass rush last week came much easier than normal because they got out to such a big lead so early. Essentially, that allowed the outside linebackers to just tee up and rush the QB for most of the game without fear of having to defend against a draw play or other run play since they knew Buffalo would be forced to pass on most plays from there on out.
I just don't see Miami getting out to such a big lead this week, and so the OLBs won't be placed in as many obvious passing downs.
As far as how the Jets fare against the run, Football Outsiders has their rush defense at -6.5% DVOA (remember, negative is good when it comes to defense), which is 15th best in the league. So the Jets have a truly average rush defense so far this year, falling right in the middle of the pack. They can be run on. It's their pass defense, at -30.3% DVOA (4th in NFL) which scares me.
Miami is going to try to win this game on the ground, as per usual, I would expect. But if they fall behind, they are going to have no choice but to pass the ball, and with Henne under center against this defense, that may be extremely difficult.
As for my prediction, I think Miami improved their outlook tremendously last week, but that performance must be taken with a grain of salt when you see that the Bills are so bad (losing to Cleveland 6-3!). On the other hand, I don't think the Jets are as good as they have appeared so far this year. However, I look back to Miami's two games against the Ravens last year and see how completely Rex Ryan's defense shut down Miami's offense, and that forces me to pick the Jets to win this week, (although I like Miami's chances a little better if Cotchery can't play). For the record, I'm 2-2 at picking the Dolphins games this year.
After last week's win, Miami's playoff chances now stand at 4.5%.
Do you think Wake will have the same success with the Jets that he had with the Bills? Although the Jets look like they have improved overall from last year, how strong is the Jets defense against the run?
It would be a miracle if Wake could produce the same huge game two weeks in a row. For starters, Joey Porter will most likely be back in the starting lineup, which will bump Wake back down the depth chart and limit Wake's opportunities to rush the QB. Secondly, Wake won't have the pleasure of facing an injury-ravaged offensive line (which wasn't spectacular to begin with) like he did versus the Bills. And finally, a lot of Miami's pass rush last week came much easier than normal because they got out to such a big lead so early. Essentially, that allowed the outside linebackers to just tee up and rush the QB for most of the game without fear of having to defend against a draw play or other run play since they knew Buffalo would be forced to pass on most plays from there on out.
I just don't see Miami getting out to such a big lead this week, and so the OLBs won't be placed in as many obvious passing downs.
As far as how the Jets fare against the run, Football Outsiders has their rush defense at -6.5% DVOA (remember, negative is good when it comes to defense), which is 15th best in the league. So the Jets have a truly average rush defense so far this year, falling right in the middle of the pack. They can be run on. It's their pass defense, at -30.3% DVOA (4th in NFL) which scares me.
Miami is going to try to win this game on the ground, as per usual, I would expect. But if they fall behind, they are going to have no choice but to pass the ball, and with Henne under center against this defense, that may be extremely difficult.
As for my prediction, I think Miami improved their outlook tremendously last week, but that performance must be taken with a grain of salt when you see that the Bills are so bad (losing to Cleveland 6-3!). On the other hand, I don't think the Jets are as good as they have appeared so far this year. However, I look back to Miami's two games against the Ravens last year and see how completely Rex Ryan's defense shut down Miami's offense, and that forces me to pick the Jets to win this week, (although I like Miami's chances a little better if Cotchery can't play). For the record, I'm 2-2 at picking the Dolphins games this year.
After last week's win, Miami's playoff chances now stand at 4.5%.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
2009 Pass Defense Review (First Quarter)
Yesterday, I posted a review of Miami's special teams coverage tackles through the first quarter of the season.
Today, I'd like to share with you a review of some individual pass defense statistics. Below, I've created a table of every player who has recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense.
In today's NFL, games are won and lost primarily by passing and stopping the pass. At 1-3, it's obvious that Miami's defense has not done an adequate job in this respect.
Here are the numbers:
Those numbers are pretty middling to say the least, and they look even worse when you consider that 6 of the sacks and 6 of the quarterback hits came in last week's game against Buffalo. That's half of this team's pass rush generated in a single game. Not to mention that all three INTs came in that one game as well.
And when Tryone Culver has more PDs than Yeremiah Bell or Gibril Wilson, you know the starting safeties are making zero plays in coverage.
These numbers absolutely have to improve if Miami is to have any chance at staying alive in this division.
I'll continue to keep track of these numbers and update them again at the midseason point.
Today, I'd like to share with you a review of some individual pass defense statistics. Below, I've created a table of every player who has recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense.
In today's NFL, games are won and lost primarily by passing and stopping the pass. At 1-3, it's obvious that Miami's defense has not done an adequate job in this respect.
Here are the numbers:
| Scks | QH | INT | PD | |
| Will Allen | 2 | 4 | ||
| Yeremiah Bell | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tyrone Culver | 2 | |||
| Vontae Davis | 1 | 2 | ||
| Nathan Jones | 1 | |||
| Kendall Langford | 1 | 1 | ||
| Phillip Merling | 1 | 2 | ||
| Joey Porter | 2 | 2 | ||
| Sean Smith | 5 | |||
| Randy Starks | 1 | 1 | ||
| Jason Taylor | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reggie Torbor | 1 | |||
| Cameron Wake | 3 | 2 | ||
| Gibril Wilson | 1 | |||
| TOTAL | 11 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
Those numbers are pretty middling to say the least, and they look even worse when you consider that 6 of the sacks and 6 of the quarterback hits came in last week's game against Buffalo. That's half of this team's pass rush generated in a single game. Not to mention that all three INTs came in that one game as well.
And when Tryone Culver has more PDs than Yeremiah Bell or Gibril Wilson, you know the starting safeties are making zero plays in coverage.
These numbers absolutely have to improve if Miami is to have any chance at staying alive in this division.
I'll continue to keep track of these numbers and update them again at the midseason point.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 First Quarter)
For the past two years I've been keeping tabs throughout the season on which players are making the most tackles on special teams.
I do this because special teams tackles are rarely reported, and they are a good sign of which players are the most active on special teams.
Jason Allen and Patrick Cobbs were the unit's leaders last season, with late-season addition Erik Walden adding another weapon.
Walden had a big game against the Bills, but it's Lex Hilliard who has taken the early lead in special teams tackles. And that's great to see, since keeping a fourth running back on the roster is a luxury. Knowing that Hilliard can make a big impact on game day as a core special teams player is his ticket to sticking around for a while.
Here's how the players stack up according to special teams tackles:
I do this because special teams tackles are rarely reported, and they are a good sign of which players are the most active on special teams.
Jason Allen and Patrick Cobbs were the unit's leaders last season, with late-season addition Erik Walden adding another weapon.
Walden had a big game against the Bills, but it's Lex Hilliard who has taken the early lead in special teams tackles. And that's great to see, since keeping a fourth running back on the roster is a luxury. Knowing that Hilliard can make a big impact on game day as a core special teams player is his ticket to sticking around for a while.
Here's how the players stack up according to special teams tackles:
| Tkl | Ast | Comb | FF | |
| Jason Allen | 2 | 2 | ||
| Charlie Anderson | 1 | 1 | ||
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | ||
| Tyrone Culver | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vontae Davis | 1 | 1 | ||
| John Denney | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Brandon Fields | 1 | 1 | ||
| Lex Hilliard | 6 | 6 | ||
| Nathan Jones | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reggie Torbor | 3 | 3 | ||
| Cameron Wake | 1 | 1 | ||
| Erik Walden | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Gibril Wilson | 2 | 2 |
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Week 4 vs. Bills Recap
I think that's what everyone was looking for - a complete team effort, with no one unit sabotaging the efforts of everyone else.
It might be a little easier to have confidence in this team going forward now.
Let's get to the bulletpoints:
It might be a little easier to have confidence in this team going forward now.
Let's get to the bulletpoints:
- Most obvious: The running game is a beast. Got to give props to the offense line in this regard. Also, Ronnie Brown is currently leading the league in DYAR, with 133. He's second in the league in DVOA (34.6%) behind Marion Barber. Needless to say, that's fantastic. Ricky Williams is also playing out of his mind, with 64 DYAR (5th) and a 20.7% DVOA (9th).
- Chad Henne: It didn't really matter who we had back there this game. Pat White and Tyler Thigpen would have won this game as well. That said, the game did show a lot of areas that Henne needs to improve in. He may have a strong arm, but so far, it seems like he has a tendency to overthrow his deep balls. He also doesn't have a good feel for the rush. He took six sacks this game - and quite a few could be blamed on him not feeling the rush and moving around enough to get the pass off quickly. He's got to improve on that pocket awareness and getting the ball out quickly. I think a lot of it stems from his problems making multiple reads downfield at this point. It's taking him too long.
- Ted Ginn: Apparently the coaches were trying to send a message to Ginn by essentially benching him for most of the second half. If he can't get things turned out around immediately, this funk might linger for a long time.
- The pass rush: Cameron Wake showed up big time with Joey Porter out of the lineup. Jason Taylor also made his presence felt. It was nice to see, but we have to remember they were playing against a crappy Bills offensive line beset by injuries. Let's see if they can repeat their performance against a decent unit.
- Secondary: The team needed playmakers in the secondary, and that's exactly what they got with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Kudos to Will Allen as well for his two-pick game.
- Gibril Wilson is still missing tackles.
- I absolutely love the playcalling to go for it on fourth-and-ones or less.
- I care much more about how good this team is at stopping the pass than it is at stopping the run. You win when you can stop the pass. I think the brief sample size of Miami's season to this point will back that up.
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