Reader Questions: Jason Taylor, Ronnie Brown, Draft

A lot could, and will, happen this week in Dolphins land, so let's get into some of the biggest issues currently facing the team.

The Jason Taylor saga continues this year. Do you think he will be playing for the hated Jets this year? How likely is it that the Dolphins will actually trade Ronnie Brown? If the Dolphins were able to trade down with their first pick would that be a good thing? If they trade down it is likely Eric Berry and Earl Thomas would be gone if they picked in the 20s.

Let's take these one by one:

Jason Taylor
I get that the Dolphins want to wait until after the Draft before addressing Taylor's future with the team. However, I don't understand their apparent unwillingness to simply reach out to him and let him know where they stand. He's earned more than a cursory "We'll get back to you."

And even though every report has him eventually signing with the Jets, I just can't see it. I believe he genuinely does hate that franchise. All that stuff he's said about them and their fans over the years - I really think that came from the heart and wasn't made up just to get a headline. There's a reason he's not wearing a Jets jersey right now. He's had plenty of time to decide if that's where he'll end up and he's still not there - even after the fancy multiple day free agent visit, even after every insider said a contract was all but finished. Jason knows he wants to play in Miami this year and only in Miami. He's going to wait as long as it takes for them to bring him back even though it erases all his leverage. If they say wait until after the Draft, well then that's what he's going to do.

Of course, what if they don't sign him after the Draft, then what? Even though Miami is the only team he wants to play for this year, that relationship requires the participation of both sides. If Miami doesn't make some kind of commitment to him soon after the Draft, then I would not be shocked to see him in New York. But until that happens, I still see him eventually returning to Miami.

And that's a no-brainer for the Dolphins (or at least it should be). They only need to make a two-year contract offer to him. He won't command a giant salary, and this is an uncapped year anyway, so the salary doesn't matter for the first year. And after getting rid of Joey Porter and Matt Roth, what else does Miami have. Sure, Cameron Wake should probably start this year and they might draft a new OLB in the first round, but the cupboard is still bare behind that. Quentin Moses and Charlie Anderson are not better than Taylor, and they each have pretty much maxed out their potential. Either or both of them might not even make the final roster depending on who Miami drafts. Taylor, on the other hand, is still a weapon, and was probably Miami's most consistent LB last year. If they can transition him to a pass-rushing only role, that would probably keep him fresher throughout the season and let him focus on what he does best.

Ronnie Brown
I don't think it's likely that Miami trades Ronnie Brown only because I doubt any team is willing to pay the price it would be required to get him, which I peg as around a second round draft pick in this year's draft.

The team should definitely be exploring all trade avenues with him though. I love the guy, but he's a 28 year old running back who is hurt all the time. And repeat it with me now: Running backs are so ridiculously interchangeable that if Miami can get good value for Brown, they should jump on it. Miami can survive without Brown, and this front office could really use a second round pick in this draft now that they've traded their away for Brandon Marshall.

And think about it - how many more elite years do you really expect Miami to get out of Brown. Two, three at most? If they keep him with his one-year tender offer this year, that would leave him with one or two good years left. They shouldn't be signing this guy to a long term deal starting in 2011. So why not get something useful for him now before his trade value is all but gone?

The Draft
Before the Marshall trade, I would have been against trading down, provided one thing - that Dez Bryant was still on the board when Miami was picking at #12. I really wanted them to take him. But now they don't need him as much and it became a lot more likely that Denver will take him anyway.

Now, however, I think Miami absolutely has to trade down, except, again, for one exception; if S Eric Berry somehow falls to #12, Miami should take him and smile all the way to podium to hand in that card with his name on it. Berry is a top 3 talent in this draft and if he miraculously falls to Miami's pick, then they have to pounce on it. Otherwise, there will be no player available that fits Miami's specific needs that will also represent good value at that spot.

Rolando McClain would have been worth that pick, but with Karlos Dansby on board (and Crowder) it would be tough to justify that pick, even though McClain will be far better than Crowder. Earl Thomas fills a need at safety, but #12 is way way way too high to be picking him. Ditto for NT Dan Williams. Miami can't afford to reach with this pick. There will also be a bevy of DE/OLBs to choose from (Derrick Morgan, Sergio Kindle, Sean Weatherspoon, Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham) but I still think the 12th spot is too high for any one of them.

Trading down, even just two or three spots, would be a tremendous help, as it would likely net the Dolphins an additional pick in the second or third round. And the 12th spot is not a bad place to be when it comes to trading down. You avoid paying out a huge contract that goes along with a top 10 pick, and the team trading up will have its pick of an elite talent in a very deep draft. So if Miami wants to trade down, they should have some takers.

Rumors are already making that rounds that the Eagles are one team that wants to trade up into Miami's spot in order to take a safety. The thinking goes that the Eagles would package their first round pick (24th overall) with their first second round pick (37th) to move up to #12. That trade would be an absolute steal for Miami according to Football Outsider's Actual Draft Value Chart. The 12th overall pick is worth 2665 points. The 24th and 37th picks are worth a combined 4020 points. Even if they were to give us their original second round pick (55th overall) that deal would still be well worth it. I really hope that is what transpires on Thursday.

GINN GONE!

Sorry, the title of this post is not meant to be celebratory; rather it's a play on Mike Tirico's call when Ginn broke a long return in college.

Anyways, Miami traded Ted Ginn to the 49ers for a fifth-round draft pick in this year's draft (#145 overall).

It's actually not bad value for him when you consider the type of player he's turned out to be. I would have liked to see Miami keep him around for him return abilities, but it still would have been hard to keep him active on game days so at least they were able to get something for him.

It's funny, looking back now on the post I wrote in the aftermath of the 2007 draft. Here's a quote:

Drafting Ted Ginn was the best move this team could have made - and that's not just spin.

Of course, I was operating under the flawed assumption that the ultimate decision came down to only two players - Ginn and Brady Quinn. If that actually were the case, then yes, Miami made the right decision. But we know that's not the case and that Patrick Willis was there for the taking. So....yeah.

At least I was rational enough about the situation to realize after Ginn's first two seasons that he was never going to be an elite receiver. Just read the comments to the article I wrote for The Phinsider talking about readjusting our expectations for Ginn. Almost no one was willing to take off their blinders and give up the notion of Ginn becoming a No.1 WR.

Of course, once he actually proved that this season, everyone was suddenly fine with trading him. It's amazing how many people have to be led, step by step, to these conclusions that should be obvious with any kind of critical foresight. It seems like the vast majority of Dolphins fans simply will not accept negative outcomes as possible until after they've already manifested themselves.

Anyways, with the trade for Brandon Marshall and the trading of Ginn, here's an updated look at Miami's stock of draft picks:

Round 1, (12th overall)
Round 3, (73)
Round 4, (110)
Round 5, (145, from San Fransisco)
Round 6, (173, from Kansas City)
Round 6, (174, from Washington)
Round 6, (179)
Round 7, (212, from Kansas City)
Round 7, (219)
Round 7, (252, compensatory)

Evaluating the Brandon Marshall trade

So Miami decided to get its No.1 WR through trade, ponying up two second round draft picks (one this year, one next year) to get Brandon Marshall from the Broncos. This came after Marshall signed his one-year tender offer with the Broncos. He will make $2.5 million in 2010. Miami signed him to a four-year extension worth $47.5 million, with $24 million of that guaranteed. All in all, Marshall's new deal with Miami works out to a five year $50 million contract.

So here are my thoughts on this trade:

• I hate the timing of this deal. Let me start off by saying that I really, really, really wanted Miami to draft Dez Bryant with their first round pick. I think he will be every bit as good as Marshall and probably better. I think he will be less of a headcase than Marshall has already proven to be. I know he's younger. And I know he's cheaper. So knowing all that, why wouldn't the Dolphins wait until the first night of the draft, see if Bryant was available at #12, draft him if he was, and if not, that would be the appropriate time to make this deal.
• This deal only solidifies my thoughts that Bill Parcells has absolutely no confidence in his own ability to properly assess a first-round WR talent. Picking wide receivers in the first couple rounds of the draft has been anathema to Parcells throughout his career. He either can't or stubbornly won't do it, and that is a detriment to every team for which he presides over the draft. He is fabulous at identifying college linemen and linebacker prospects. When it comes to skill positions, it appears he is clueless. No team can take the next step without being able to groom their own skill position players. And if the cost of not being able to do just that was ever in doubt, look no further than the $5o million/two second round pick price tag that Miami just forked over for Marshall.
• I do like the fact that this acquisition finally allows Miami's other receivers to be slotted correctly on the depth chart. Brian Hartline should take over as the starting wideout opposite Marshall and Davone Bess will be able to work as just the slot receiver. Greg Camarillo will be able to slide down to the fourth spot where he will make an excellent possession receiver.
• Can there be any doubt now that the coaching staff has lost hope for Patrick Turner? What a waste of a third round pick. Another example of Parcells blowing it with an early WR pick.
• I'd rather see the team get rid of Turner than trade Ted Ginn. Ginn at least could still have value to this squad. Now that Miami finally has a dominant force at WR, Ginn's downfield skills can be fully unleashed. At the very least, Ginn would be the fourth or fifth WR, he'd see about 10-15 snaps a game solely as a downfield burner, and the team would retain his tremendous kick return abilities.
• In case you're wondering, the two second round picks (assuming that next year's pick falls in the middle of the round) are worth approximately the 20th or 21st pick in the first round of this year's draft, according to Football Outsider's adjusted draft value chart. That, in addition to his enormous contract, is a tremendously steep price to pay for a player who is one incident away from being suspended for a very long time.

Now let's get into the stats.

Marshall led the league in dropped passes in 2007, tied for fourth most in 2008, and tied for third most last season. AKA, he drops a lot of balls.

Take a look at his yards per reception over the last three seasons: 13.0 in 2007, 12.2 in 2008, 11.0 in 2009. His yards have similarly declined: 1325, 1266, 1127.

Take a look at his last three seasons' DVOA numbers: -1.6% in 2007, -6.7% in 2008, 2.3% in 2009. He coupled that with DYARs of 148, 85, and 179. Decent enough, but hardly superstar level numbers. Then consider the fact that Marshall posted a -25.1% DVOA in the red zone last year and scored in only two of the final 12 games of the season (against Kansas City and Cleveland no less).

Basically, the metrics and his extremely troubled history leave me seriously questioning this move. I love the fact that Miami finally has a legitimate No.1 option, which helps the other WRs and Chad Henne, but it comes with the highest risk possible and a huge investment of both picks and money. I don't see how Dez Bryant wasn't the better option.

Oh yeah, just watch this video. I took pride in the fact that before this offseason, Miami pretty much had a bunch of guys you could feel good rooting for. Well, with Richie Incognito and Brandon Marshall now in the fold, that's no longer the case.

Dolphins awarded compensatory draft pick

The 2010 compensatory draft picks were announced yesterday and Miami was awarded a seventh rounder, #252 overall.

Miami now has 10 draft picks.

Here is the team's full allotment of picks:

Round 1, (12th overall)
Round 2, (43)
Round 3, (73)
Round 4, (110)
Round 6, (173, from Kansas City)
Round 6, (174, from Washington)
Round 6, (179)
Round 7, (212, from Kansas City)
Round 7, (219)
Round 7, (252, compensatory)

Miami's fifth round pick was traded to Kansas City for Tyler Thigpen.

Ronnie Brown gets busted for DUI

The arrests, they just keep on comin' don't they?

Ronnie Brown was charged with driving under the influence this weekend in his hometown of Cartersville, Georgia.

Apparently, he was pulled over for failing to signal when changing lanes. He then performed poorly on a field sobriety test.

He is scheduled to appear in court on May 13.

Since this is Brown's first run-in with the law, I doubt he'll face any kind of suspension. Still, it was an incredibly stupid thing to do.

All three ERFAs re-signed

Exclusive Rights Free Agents are hardly free agents. They have no leeway to negotiate or talk with other teams so their only choices are to re-sign with their team or sit out the year - and that's obviously not going to happen.

So it's no surprise that Miami's three ERFAs - Davone Bess, Dan Carpenter, and Joey Haynos - all re-signed with the Dolphins on one-year contracts.

Bess and Carpenter are pretty much locks to make the roster this season. Haynos will have to battle for his spot in training camp.

Richie Incognito signed

After bringing G Richie Incognito in for a visit on Monday, the Dolphins sealed the deal by signing him to a contract on Wednesday.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Miami pursued him since they put a waiver claim in for him last season when he was released midseason by the Rams. But the Bills had a worse record so their waiver claim won out.

Incognito is well known for his oftentimes idiotic play, marked by numerous personal foul penalties. As Football Outsiders Almanac so eloquently put it, his "existence seems dedicated to defying his last name through acts of embarrassing petulance."

There's no doubt this move carries with it some level of risk. Until he proves otherwise, Incognito is always a threat to destroy a drive with a flagrant penalty, and he's been known to yell at his coaches.

Still, the Dolphins only gave him a one-year contract at a paltry salary of just over $1 million. Even if he meets all the incentives in his deal, the value would still only top out at $1.3 million. If things don't work out, he can very easily get cut.

He does have some level of talent and he doesn't turn 27 until July, so he should be peaking. The coaches will probably have him compete with Donald Thomas and Nate Garner for the starting right guard spot. Incognito also has experience playing center and tackle. My question, though, is what does this say about the coaches' belief in the ability of Thomas and/or Garner? Does this signing mean they aren't progressing as the coaches would like? We'll have to wait until training camp to find out about that.