Thoughts on Chiefs Game

As many expected over the past few weeks, Miami's playoff hopes will finally come down to next week's game against the Jets. Win and we're in - it's that simple.

But to get in this position, the Dolphins had to beat the Chiefs, in the coldest game in Dolphins' history. So let's talk about this win and what kind of questions it raised about next week.

To start off, here's an email I received following the game:

The secondary did another great job this week. What do you attribute the better play from the secondary is from? Different players? How great of a concern is it that the Offense is having some problems with run blocking? Going into the Jets game what is the greatest problem the Dolphins have on defense?

Thanks for the email.

I'd say the secondary played well, but I wouldn't say they played a great game. Tony Gonzalez pretty much had his way against them throughout the game, they were caught out of position and got burned on a few big screens, and they gave up a few big plays over the top to taller guys like Devard Darling and Mark Bradley.

That being said, they clamped down when they absolutely had to, and Andre' Goodman had a huge game despite being targeted early and often.

I think the main reason the secondary is playing so much better this year than last is a simple matter of health. There was absolutely no continuity amongst the unit last year with all the safeties the team had to sift through and the shoulder injury that hampered Goodman. The players composing the group this year are hardly different than last year, save for some of the backups like Nathan Jones and Tyrone Culver.

Will Allen is and has been for the past few seasons one of the elite corners in the league, although he is rarely credited for it. But like Nnamdi Asomugha in Oakland, it often doesn't matter how good one corner is if the guy opposite him can't hold up under increased attention. And that was largely the case last year. Teams just figured it was easier to avoid Will Allen and target a significantly limited Goodman or an average Michael Lehan instead. This year, however, Goodman is back at full strength and it's showing. He's in the midst of a career year. Perhaps he's the kind of player who really turns it on in pressure situations. Up until this year, he's never played on a winning team, so this is really new territory for him. Whatever the case may be, he's proving to be equally dangerous opposite Will Allen.

Of course, Renaldo Hill's entrance into the starting lineup for Chris Crocker also made a world of difference as far as communication goes, and having Yeremiah Bell stay healthy for every game is a huge factor too.

As far as the run-blocking is concerned, Miami may not be successfully running out of conventional sets as much as I'd probably like them to, but that doesn't mean they aren't getting it done. Andy Alleman has filled in nicely for Justin Smiley at LG, although it's obvious that the coaching staff is still afraid of just pounding the ball up the middle. And that's to be expected since a middle three of Alleman, Satele, and Ndukwe is rarely going to get the huge push you'd like to see. But these interior lineman aren't bad at pulling and out in space, and that's why we've seen an increase in the number of sweeps and outside runs.

Against the Jets, the run-blocking could be an issue. Samson Satele will have to go up against NT Kris Jenkins. Even though Jenkins seems to be wearing down a bit as the season goes on, he still has the ability to dominate Satele much the same way that Vince Wilfork did. If that happens, Miami's running game could face some big problems. As it is, the Jets have a top ten defense against the run. Seattle was able to get some things going against them though, so perhaps Miami will find some weakness to exploit. If not, this game will rest on the arm of Chad Pennington - and that's not the worst thing in the world.

Heading into next week, I think Miami's biggest concern on defense is going to be how to deal with the Jets if they employ a spread-style offense like the Patriots did in their big win over Miami. Miami doesn't have the secondary depth to cover four and five receiver sets, and the Dolphins have not done well at pressuring the QB when the defense gets spread out like that. If Brett Favre is given ample time to throw, he'll find the open guy.

The Thomas Jones/Leon Washington combo also scares me a bit, and the defense had better know where Washington is at all times when he's on the field.

Wildcat By The Numbers Week 15

Last week, the Dolphins almost went an entire game without running a play from the Wildcat formation, until they called on it late in the fourth quarter, on a critical clock-eating drive.

And the outcome of the play was a huge 16 yard gain by Ronnie Brown for a first down.

As Miami is forced to play its last two games of the regular season on the road in cold weather, the team may look to run the ball a bit more than they have been recently. That could lead to a renewal of the Wildcat being used around a half-dozen times a game.

On the other hand, perhaps Miami has been relatively shelving the Wildcat over the last month or so, in preparation for unveiling some new wrinkles against the Jets, in what very well may be the deciding game for the AFC East championship. That certainly would be an interesting way for things to shake out.

	Plays	Run	Pass	Yards	Yds/Play	FDs	TDs
Week 3, @NE	6	5	1	119	19.8	1	4
Week 5, SD	10	9	1	48	4.8	3	1
Week 6, @HOU	7	6	1	77	11	0	1
Week 7, BAL	5	5	0	4	0.8	0	0
Week 8, BUF	7	7	0	34	4.9	3	0
Week 9, @ DEN	4	3	1	-5	-1.3	0	0
Week 10, SEA	6	6	0	80	13.3	0	2
Week 11, OAK	10	10	0	52	5.2	1	0
Week 12, NE	8	8	0	25	3.1	1	0
Week 13, @ STL	2	2	0	2	1	0	0
Week 14, @ BUF	6	6	0	5	0.8	1	0
Week 15, SF	1	1	0	16	16	1	0
Total	72	68	4	473	6.6	11	8
Avg./Game	6	5.7	0.3	39	-	.9	.7

	Plays	FDs (non-penalty)	FD%	TDs	TD%	Run Avg
Non-WC Plays	754	243	32%	23	3%	4.0 yds
WC Plays	72	11	15%	8	11%	5.8 yds

	Runs	Yards	Avg	FDs	TDs
Ronnie Brown	44	253	5.8	7	5
Ricky Williams	23	137	6.0	4	1
Patrick Cobbs	1	3	3.0	0	0

Cramer released, Kershaw called up

In a move to protect against Channing Crowder's possible absence from Sunday's game in Kansas City, the Dolphins promoted LB William Kershaw from the practice squad.

To make room for Kershaw, the team cut FB Casey Cramer.

Hopefully this move is just a precaution and not a sign that Crowder will definitely miss the game, though he is listed as questionable on the injury report.

Congrats, Joey and Ronnie!

Joey Porter and Ronnie Brown were selected to the 2009 AFC Pro Bowl team. Porter will start at outside linebacker, while Brown will serve as a backup running back

Great job, guys.

Thoughts on 49ers Game

A reader sent in this general question about the 49ers game:

The defense played a great game to keep the Dolphins in it and get another win. Davone Bess had a couple of nice returns. What are your thoughts on the game as the Dolphins make a run at the playoffs?

The most encouraging thing about the defense's performance today was that it continued its strong play the entire game, despite the fact that it was on the field for over 38 minutes, a whopping discrepancy in the time of possession.

As the game wore on into the fourth quarter and Miami was allowing the 49ers to keep it close, I started to get nervous for the defense's ability to hold up after being on the field for so many plays. The fact that they held up and put the skids down when it mattered most was encouraging.

The front seven did a great job getting pressure on Shaun Hill, and on the back end the secondary did a relatively decent job of keeping the big play at bay. Will Allen struggled a bit today, as Isaac Bruce had a lot of success against him throughout the game. I don't expect that to become a trend though.

As far as the push to the playoffs is concerned, it really does seem like things are shaking up for the Week 17 game against the Jets to be for all the marbles. Obviously, Miami can't afford to overlook the Chiefs, especially since that game could be a mess weather-wise.

My concern at this point is that it is unrealistic to think that the defense can continue to shut opponents out of the endzone for the rest of the season. Teams will eventually pass the pylons, and when they do, Miami's offense is going to need to start to score more points. The offense started off tremendously today, but with limited time on the field, they never got into any rhythm and stalled out continuously throughout the second half. It's now been since the Patriots game that Miami has scored over 16 points. That likely won't be enough over these next two weeks.

Wildcat By The Numbers Week 14

Here's my latest tables for tracking the success of the Wildcat formation.

Once again, the formation was essentially shut down last week against Buffalo, with the exception of a single first down.

I get the feeling that the coaching staff has been purposefully keeping the playcalling from the Wildcat formation rather vanilla over the past few weeks, perhaps in order to catch a team sleeping in these final three weeks on a new wrinkle. We shall see.

	Plays	Run	Pass	Yards	Yds/Play	FDs	TDs
Week 3, @NE	6	5	1	119	19.8	1	4
Week 5, SD	10	9	1	48	4.8	3	1
Week 6, @HOU	7	6	1	77	11.0	0	1
Week 7, BAL	5	5	0	4	0.8	0	0
Week 8, BUF	7	7	0	34	4.9	3	0
Week 9, @ DEN	4	3	1	-5	-1.3	0	0
Week 10, SEA	6	6	0	80	13.3	0	2
Week 11, OAK	10	10	0	52	5.2	1	0
Week 12, NE	8	8	0	25	3.1	1	0
Week 13, @ STL	2	2	0	2	1	0	0
Week 14, BUF	6	6	0	5	0.8	1	0
Total	71	67	4	441	6.2	10	8
Avg./Game	6.5	6.1	0.4	40	-	.9	.7

	Plays	FDs (non-penalty)	FD%	TDs	TD%	Run Avg
Non-WC Plays	715	233	33%	21	3%	4.0 yds
WC Plays	71	10	14%	8	11%	5.6 yds

	Runs	Yards	Avg	FDs	TDs
Ronnie Brown	43	237	5.5	6	5
Ricky Williams	23	137	6.0	4	1
Patrick Cobbs	1	3	3.0	0	0

Lehan released from IR

I really don't understand the rationale behind this move, but the team has released CB Michael Lehan from Injured Reserve.

Lehan can now sign with any team.

I don't get this move, primarily because if he returned to health next year, there was a decent chance that Lehan could have made the team and improved the CB depth. Cutting him now saves the team the $600,000 roster bonus it would have owed him if he was on the team next year, but that's not a lot of money saved when compared to what Lehan might have been able to offer the team in 2009.

Stashed on IR, Lehan was not taking up a roster spot any longer, so it's not as if this release frees up another spot to sign someone.

It's a curious move, and I'll be interested to see if any other explanation comes out in the future as to why it was made.