GINN GONE!

Sorry, the title of this post is not meant to be celebratory; rather it's a play on Mike Tirico's call when Ginn broke a long return in college.

Anyways, Miami traded Ted Ginn to the 49ers for a fifth-round draft pick in this year's draft (#145 overall).

It's actually not bad value for him when you consider the type of player he's turned out to be. I would have liked to see Miami keep him around for him return abilities, but it still would have been hard to keep him active on game days so at least they were able to get something for him.

It's funny, looking back now on the post I wrote in the aftermath of the 2007 draft. Here's a quote:

Drafting Ted Ginn was the best move this team could have made - and that's not just spin.

Of course, I was operating under the flawed assumption that the ultimate decision came down to only two players - Ginn and Brady Quinn. If that actually were the case, then yes, Miami made the right decision. But we know that's not the case and that Patrick Willis was there for the taking. So....yeah.

At least I was rational enough about the situation to realize after Ginn's first two seasons that he was never going to be an elite receiver. Just read the comments to the article I wrote for The Phinsider talking about readjusting our expectations for Ginn. Almost no one was willing to take off their blinders and give up the notion of Ginn becoming a No.1 WR.

Of course, once he actually proved that this season, everyone was suddenly fine with trading him. It's amazing how many people have to be led, step by step, to these conclusions that should be obvious with any kind of critical foresight. It seems like the vast majority of Dolphins fans simply will not accept negative outcomes as possible until after they've already manifested themselves.

Anyways, with the trade for Brandon Marshall and the trading of Ginn, here's an updated look at Miami's stock of draft picks:

Round 1, (12th overall)
Round 3, (73)
Round 4, (110)
Round 5, (145, from San Fransisco)
Round 6, (173, from Kansas City)
Round 6, (174, from Washington)
Round 6, (179)
Round 7, (212, from Kansas City)
Round 7, (219)
Round 7, (252, compensatory)

Evaluating the Brandon Marshall trade

So Miami decided to get its No.1 WR through trade, ponying up two second round draft picks (one this year, one next year) to get Brandon Marshall from the Broncos. This came after Marshall signed his one-year tender offer with the Broncos. He will make $2.5 million in 2010. Miami signed him to a four-year extension worth $47.5 million, with $24 million of that guaranteed. All in all, Marshall's new deal with Miami works out to a five year $50 million contract.

So here are my thoughts on this trade:

• I hate the timing of this deal. Let me start off by saying that I really, really, really wanted Miami to draft Dez Bryant with their first round pick. I think he will be every bit as good as Marshall and probably better. I think he will be less of a headcase than Marshall has already proven to be. I know he's younger. And I know he's cheaper. So knowing all that, why wouldn't the Dolphins wait until the first night of the draft, see if Bryant was available at #12, draft him if he was, and if not, that would be the appropriate time to make this deal.
• This deal only solidifies my thoughts that Bill Parcells has absolutely no confidence in his own ability to properly assess a first-round WR talent. Picking wide receivers in the first couple rounds of the draft has been anathema to Parcells throughout his career. He either can't or stubbornly won't do it, and that is a detriment to every team for which he presides over the draft. He is fabulous at identifying college linemen and linebacker prospects. When it comes to skill positions, it appears he is clueless. No team can take the next step without being able to groom their own skill position players. And if the cost of not being able to do just that was ever in doubt, look no further than the $5o million/two second round pick price tag that Miami just forked over for Marshall.
• I do like the fact that this acquisition finally allows Miami's other receivers to be slotted correctly on the depth chart. Brian Hartline should take over as the starting wideout opposite Marshall and Davone Bess will be able to work as just the slot receiver. Greg Camarillo will be able to slide down to the fourth spot where he will make an excellent possession receiver.
• Can there be any doubt now that the coaching staff has lost hope for Patrick Turner? What a waste of a third round pick. Another example of Parcells blowing it with an early WR pick.
• I'd rather see the team get rid of Turner than trade Ted Ginn. Ginn at least could still have value to this squad. Now that Miami finally has a dominant force at WR, Ginn's downfield skills can be fully unleashed. At the very least, Ginn would be the fourth or fifth WR, he'd see about 10-15 snaps a game solely as a downfield burner, and the team would retain his tremendous kick return abilities.
• In case you're wondering, the two second round picks (assuming that next year's pick falls in the middle of the round) are worth approximately the 20th or 21st pick in the first round of this year's draft, according to Football Outsider's adjusted draft value chart. That, in addition to his enormous contract, is a tremendously steep price to pay for a player who is one incident away from being suspended for a very long time.

Now let's get into the stats.

Marshall led the league in dropped passes in 2007, tied for fourth most in 2008, and tied for third most last season. AKA, he drops a lot of balls.

Take a look at his yards per reception over the last three seasons: 13.0 in 2007, 12.2 in 2008, 11.0 in 2009. His yards have similarly declined: 1325, 1266, 1127.

Take a look at his last three seasons' DVOA numbers: -1.6% in 2007, -6.7% in 2008, 2.3% in 2009. He coupled that with DYARs of 148, 85, and 179. Decent enough, but hardly superstar level numbers. Then consider the fact that Marshall posted a -25.1% DVOA in the red zone last year and scored in only two of the final 12 games of the season (against Kansas City and Cleveland no less).

Basically, the metrics and his extremely troubled history leave me seriously questioning this move. I love the fact that Miami finally has a legitimate No.1 option, which helps the other WRs and Chad Henne, but it comes with the highest risk possible and a huge investment of both picks and money. I don't see how Dez Bryant wasn't the better option.

Oh yeah, just watch this video. I took pride in the fact that before this offseason, Miami pretty much had a bunch of guys you could feel good rooting for. Well, with Richie Incognito and Brandon Marshall now in the fold, that's no longer the case.

Dolphins awarded compensatory draft pick

The 2010 compensatory draft picks were announced yesterday and Miami was awarded a seventh rounder, #252 overall.

Miami now has 10 draft picks.

Here is the team's full allotment of picks:

Round 1, (12th overall)
Round 2, (43)
Round 3, (73)
Round 4, (110)
Round 6, (173, from Kansas City)
Round 6, (174, from Washington)
Round 6, (179)
Round 7, (212, from Kansas City)
Round 7, (219)
Round 7, (252, compensatory)

Miami's fifth round pick was traded to Kansas City for Tyler Thigpen.

Ronnie Brown gets busted for DUI

The arrests, they just keep on comin' don't they?

Ronnie Brown was charged with driving under the influence this weekend in his hometown of Cartersville, Georgia.

Apparently, he was pulled over for failing to signal when changing lanes. He then performed poorly on a field sobriety test.

He is scheduled to appear in court on May 13.

Since this is Brown's first run-in with the law, I doubt he'll face any kind of suspension. Still, it was an incredibly stupid thing to do.

All three ERFAs re-signed

Exclusive Rights Free Agents are hardly free agents. They have no leeway to negotiate or talk with other teams so their only choices are to re-sign with their team or sit out the year - and that's obviously not going to happen.

So it's no surprise that Miami's three ERFAs - Davone Bess, Dan Carpenter, and Joey Haynos - all re-signed with the Dolphins on one-year contracts.

Bess and Carpenter are pretty much locks to make the roster this season. Haynos will have to battle for his spot in training camp.

Richie Incognito signed

After bringing G Richie Incognito in for a visit on Monday, the Dolphins sealed the deal by signing him to a contract on Wednesday.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Miami pursued him since they put a waiver claim in for him last season when he was released midseason by the Rams. But the Bills had a worse record so their waiver claim won out.

Incognito is well known for his oftentimes idiotic play, marked by numerous personal foul penalties. As Football Outsiders Almanac so eloquently put it, his "existence seems dedicated to defying his last name through acts of embarrassing petulance."

There's no doubt this move carries with it some level of risk. Until he proves otherwise, Incognito is always a threat to destroy a drive with a flagrant penalty, and he's been known to yell at his coaches.

Still, the Dolphins only gave him a one-year contract at a paltry salary of just over $1 million. Even if he meets all the incentives in his deal, the value would still only top out at $1.3 million. If things don't work out, he can very easily get cut.

He does have some level of talent and he doesn't turn 27 until July, so he should be peaking. The coaches will probably have him compete with Donald Thomas and Nate Garner for the starting right guard spot. Incognito also has experience playing center and tackle. My question, though, is what does this say about the coaches' belief in the ability of Thomas and/or Garner? Does this signing mean they aren't progressing as the coaches would like? We'll have to wait until training camp to find out about that.

Second Annual Top 5 Prospects List

Around this time last year, I compiled my first Dolphins' Top 5 Prospects List. I made it in order to see how well the team was set up for the future in terms of rising young players on cheap contracts.

Last year's list was Tyrone Culver, Andy Alleman, Brandon London, Cameron Wake, and Donald Thomas. London is really the only guy on there that I missed on (and, truthfully, I was basing my selection of him on his ability to put on and maintain weight). Alleman was good enough to net the team a not-insignificant fifth-round draft pick in this year's draft.

To be considered for this list, a player must meet the following criteria (borrowed from Football Outsiders Almanac definition of a prospect):

1. Drafted or signed in 2007 or later
2. Drafted no earlier than round three
3. Less than five career games started
4. Still on a free agent contract or their original contract

So let's check out my list for 2010:

5. RB Lex Hilliard
Running back is the most fungible position in football, and Miami had to call on its deep reserves in 2009, after injuries to Ronnie Brown and Patrick Cobbs. That left Hilliard, a sixth-round pick of the Dolphins in 2008, to assume the primary backup duties behind Ricky Williams. Miami was able to call on Lex because they opted to keep a fourth RB on the roster to start the season. With Brown and Cobbs returning from injury this offseason, Hilliard may once again get shoved down the depth chart, but the RB situation for 2011 is completely up in the air at the moment since Brown's contract ends after this year and Ricky very well may retire. If Hilliard can stick on the roster for another year, his opportunities might explode in 2011. He impressed with the limited number of opportunities he had (169 offensive snaps). He hit the hole with authority and gained yards after contact at a rate better than Ricky and on par with Ronnie. He particularly impressed me with his receiving output (93.7% DVOA!), which I had believed to be a weakness of his coming out of college. He was also a key contributor on special teams, finishing with 14 tackles, third most on the team. With Lex on the team, there's absolutely no reason to draft a RB this year and it's very easy to envision him splitting the load with another runner come 2011.

4. S Chris Clemons
With the release of Gibril Wilson and the inability to sign either Antrel Rolle or Ryan Clark, Miami's free safety position would currently be filled by Chris Clemons or Tyrone Culver. And honestly, I'm fine with that. Sure, I'd like to see the team draft another safety to compete for the spot, but probably not in one of the first two rounds of the draft. I don't get why so many people are so worried about possibly starting Clemons this year. This is what happens on good teams! They draft guys who go on to start for them within a few years time. You have to put your faith in prospect development sometimes. Not every hole is always going to be filled by a first-rounder or a big free agent. When Miami drafted Clemons in the fifth round last year, I thought it was a great pick because he represented good value in that spot and showed future starting potential. It's not like he's completely raw either; he started for three years in college, playing 51 games (so he's very durable) and he was already called on to start for Miami twice in his rookie year. Now obviously, he didn't wow anyone in his limited chances, but the coaches must have seen something in him they trusted and liked. Another offseason should sharpen up some of his coverage skills and we all know about his blazing speed. Development also takes more than just years of waiting; it takes actual game experience. If you want a long-term starting free safety you've got to give young guys like Clemons real game opportunities to sink or swim. Personally, I think Clemons could handle the job this year.

3. TE John Nalbone
After a year in which the tight ends played magnificently (2008), they came crashing down to earth in a fiery wreck last year. Anthony Fasano seems like the only TE lock to make the team right now, so John Nalbone, a fifth round pick last year, will have every opportunity to make the team in a significant role this season. Nalbone is a complete tight end, meaning that he can both catch and block well. Those kind of TEs are tough to find and are very valuable. I wasn't too shocked that he spent most of last season on Miami's practice squad. After all, he was entering the NFL out of Monmouth, a small school, and that jump to the NFL level is huge and would take some time. He should be well acclimated entering this offseason, and I see no reason why he can't challenge Joey Haynos and Kory Sperry to be Miami's second string TE. Nalbone has future starting potential, and depending on how he performs this season, could be setting himself up to start in 2011 if the team decides to move on from Fasano.

2. WR Brian Hartline
Hartline was the second of two WRs drafted by Miami last year, but he ended up far outplaying Patrick Turner who was taken a round ahead of him. Hartline was very likely the best WR on the Dolphins last year. He is a stat-geeks' dream, too. In the past I've talked a lot about WR body types and how certain Body Mass Index/height relationships indicate whether a WR has a chance to be elite or not. Hartline's body type happens to fall into the "Slight" elite category. The one thing everyone noticed about Turner was his size, but that doesn't mean he has an elite body. Hartline's got one, and it showed up in his rookie season. He saw only 407 offensive snaps, but led the team with three TDs, showed an immediate chemistry with Chad Henne, and posted a fantastic 16.3 yards per catch average. His advanced stats were also off the charts; he had 156 DYAR (30th in NFL) and a 21.8% DVOA (10th in NFL). No one expects Hartline to be anything more than a solid number three WR but I think that's severely selling him short. This guy could be a true surprise player. I'm not saying I would be comfortable with him as the team's long-term No. 1 wideout, but if the season started today, he would be my top WR.

1. OLB Cameron Wake
Two years in a row on this list, whoo! Wake qualifies for the list because he was signed by Miami after 2007, even though he came out for the draft in 2006. Actually, I wish Wake weren't on this list because it would've meant the coaches finally gave him more playing time (and more starts). I realize that he still needs a lot of work setting the edge and stopping the run as well as working in coverage. But I guarantee he would do those two things just as well as Joey Porter supposedly did them last season. And at this stage of their careers, Wake is probably the better pass rusher. So why can't he start for this defense? The bottom line is that Wake was an absolute monster in his limited playing time this past season. According to ProFootballFocus, if Wake had played even 25% of Miami's defensive snaps, he would have been the third best 3-4 OLB in the NFL. Obviously, we're talking a small sample size here (just 167 defensive snaps), but that mistake falls on the coaching staff. Wake should have been playing a hell of a lot more last season. He finished fourth on the team in sacks and third in QB hits in just a fraction of the snaps. He also had 20 QB pressures - as many as Jason Taylor. Even if he's not a complete player at this point, he needs to be starting, or at least heavily rotating. He's already 28 years old, so the team doesn't have forever to coach him up. We all saw how disruptive he can be; now it's time to unleash that to its full potential.