Dolphins release four more

The Dolphins clearly know what they want in players, and they won't keep extra players on the roster just because the league's roster limits allows them to.

Case in point: Another four players were released yesterday, bringing the roster down to 66 players at a time when teams are allowed to have 80 on the roster.

K Connor Barth, WR Anthony Armstrong, and NT Louis Ellis were outright released, while FB Joe Kowalewski was waived/injured.

Training Camp Roster Breakdown 2009: Safeties

Concluding my look at the team's defensive units, I'll be examining the safeties today.

Yeremiah Bell
Bell made an astounding number of plays last season, finishing second in the entire NFL with 130 plays (tackles, sacks, PDs, etc.). The player he came in second to? Gibril Wilson, the guy who Miami brought in to line up back there with Bell. The team is keeping Bell at his strong safety position and moving Wilson to free safety, so Bell's share of plays should remain about the same as he is asked to come up in the box to help defend against the run. Bell also deserves a lot of credit for leading Miami's pass defense in putting up a -14.2% DVOA vs. tight ends and a -24.8% DVOA vs. running backs, numbers good for 7th and 2nd best in the league respectively. As far as his individual metrics, he had a decent 54% success rate vs. the pass and an extremely good 6.0 adjusted yards per pass allowed, 8th beset in the league. Granted, some of that has to do with him playing so much in the box rather than deep down field, but it's impressive nonetheless. If he can continue last year's run of health, Bell should continue to be a strong presence in the back end of this defense.

Courtney Bryan
You've got to admire Bryan's tenacity in managing to stick around the Dolphins roster for so long. Cut by the team before the season began last year, he was later brought back into the fold in November in an effort to help the ailing special teams coverage units. In seven games, he recorded 3 special teams tackles. He's fine as a mid-season replacement, but I don't see the team keeping him on the roster to begin the year.

Chris Clemons
Chris Clemons from Clemson. Say that tongue-twister three times fast. I really liked this pick as Clemons was a good value in the fifth round. He's a really interesting prospect as a potential future starting free safety. He has excellent speed and his range in the backfield is superb. He's also very durable and experienced, having played 51 games in college, with three years as a starter. He's not a ballhawk, however, so his big-play potential is questionable. He's also not likely to make any huge hits and his tackling is suspect. He'll have time to work on those areas of his game as he spends his first season primarily as a special teams player, but he could see some opportunities as a dimeback if he progresses quickly.

Tyrone Culver
Culver turned out to be one of the team's best free agent additions last year, and he wasn't even added until September, right before the season began. Not only was he an ace special teams player (9 tackles), but he became a primary option in the defense's nickel and dime packages. In that limited playing time, he recorded 35 tackles, 3 passes defensed and one interception. He had a 52% success rate against the pass and trailed only Yeremiah Bell on the team with 8.0 adjusted yards allowed per pass. I listed Culver on my first annual Top 5 Prospects list this offseason, and the team obviously liked what they saw from him as well, signing him to a contract extension.

Gibril Wilson
Wilson was one of Miami's high-priced free agent additions this offseason, signed to take over Renaldo Hill's spot as the starting free safety. The biggest question surrounding Wilson is how well he'll be able to make the transition to free safety after playing SS for most of his career, save for one year with the Giants. You see, Wilson is one of the premier run-stuffing safeties in the entire NFL, but he will be asked to do a lot more pass coverage this year since Yeremiah Bell has the SS position locked up. As a run stopper he is second to none among this team's defensive backs, with a 55% success rate vs. the run last year. (Will Allen came in second at 46% and no one else was even above 40%). But he has also shown a tendency to make careless mistakes in deep coverage, and he gave up a whopping 10.4 adjusted yards per pass last year, one of the worst totals in the league. Granted, he had performed better in coverage the year before that in New York. It'll be imperative for Wilson to get past whatever was affecting his coverage abilities last year if this defense wants to be able to limit the amount of big pass plays it gives up.

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Here's my predicted depth chart:
FS - Gibril Wilson
SS - Yeremiah Bell

Backups:
1. Tyrone Culver
2. Chris Clemons

Training Camp Roster Breakdown 2009: Cornerbacks

Next up in the positional previews are the cornerbacks.

And before I even begin with this group, it should be noted that I wasn't even going to pick Eric Green to make this team. The team just beat me to the punch before I could put that prediction in writing. Oh well, anyone who's been reading me since Green was signed knows where I was coming from on that end.

Anyways...on to the guys who actually have a shot:

Jason Allen
After impressing in the latter half of 2007, it seemed like Jason Allen was finally in line for more playing time. However, that wasn't meant to be as the new coaching staff moved him permanently to cornerback and he reverted back to the bottom of the depth chart. Sometimes I just don't understand the coaches' handling of Jason. Yes, we can all admit that he is a bust as a No. 1 pick, but that doesn't mean he is useless. In fact, when he actually does find some small pockets of playing time, he looks decent. I can't believe that he was truly a worse option than Joey Thomas to use last year in most any situation. Jason has obvious flaws. He is one of the worst run-defending defensive backs in the league, surprising given his size and physicality. And he has a penchant for giving up big pass plays. But he did make a noticeable improvement in that area last year, going from 12.3 Adjusted Yards Allowed on passes targeted at him in 2007, to 9.4 AdjYds in 2008. Now, that's still not a good number, but it was a big improvement, and with a permanent move to CB, it wouldn't be surprising to see him continue to get a little better. What Jason does bring to the table is the ability to be a playmaker off the bench. In his very limited playing time over his first three years, Jason has recorded 5 interceptions, the same as Will Allen has snagged in the last four years while starting every game but one. If we admit that Jason's not a top-3 CB, then maybe we can all adjust our expectations of him. Once you get to your fourth or fifth CB, you aren't going to be getting a lock-down guy. But at least if Jason needs to come into the game he can make a play for this defense. And, perhaps most importantly, Jason's a special teams maven. He tied Patrick Cobbs for the team lead in special teams tackles last year with 16.

Will Allen
Will Allen continued with his strong play in 2008, helping Miami to post a -7.2% DVOA vs. #1 WRs. That was good for 9th best in the league. His individual metrics were so good in 2007, however, that they were bound to regress a bit last season. His success rate in coverage fell from 56% to 52%, and his AdjYds allowed rose from 5.9 to 7.8. He made up for it some by tallying a whopping 18 PDs and 3 Ints. He's still a No. 1 corner though, and the team showed their faith in him by extending his contract for another two years. Even so, the team wisely hedged its bets against a decline by drafting two CBs in the first two rounds. Will Allen is 31 years old this year so it can't be expected that he will continue this run of excellence forever. Things haven't looked any different in camp so far though, with Will drawing rave reviews.

Will Billingsley
Billingsley spent all of last season on Miami's practice squad. He did enough while there to get re-signed and brought back for another training camp. His calling card is his blazing speed, but I'm still not sure if he can actually cover. The most I hear about him from camp is when someone beats him for a TD. The best he can hope for is another year of seasoning on the practice squad.

Vontae Davis
I loved the team's decision to take Davis with the 25th pick in the draft this year. He was the most physically gifted and talented defensive back in the draft and possesses some of the biggest upside. This regime loves size at all positions, and it can be especially difficult to find quality size at CB. But Davis looks to be a fit. His excellent bulk doesn't detract from his ability to stay with even the fastest WRs, and it allows him to play with tremendous physicality. He should be a force in run defense. In coverage, he's like a jack-of-all-trades. He can play man; he can play zone; he can play bump and run. He's not the best ballhawk, but he'll make his share of plays. I think Davis' ultimate upside is that of a No. 1 corner. The predominant concerns about him are that he is immature and lacks the appropriate work ethic to reach those heights. Those are legitimate worries, but Tony Sparano has proven an ability to get everyone on the same page and bought into the team ethic.

Nathan Jones
Jones was a pleasant surprise last season. It was thought that he was being brought in from Dallas to primarily play special teams - which he did, and did well, finishing with 9 special teams tackles. But he quickly vaulted up the team's depth chart and settled in as the nickel-corner. He flourished in that role, providing stable coverage and showing an uncanny ability to pressure the QB on blitzes. The coaches have been cross-training him a bit at safety this offseason, and that will only increase his chances to get on the field. With the arrival of the two rookie CBs, Jones will get bumped down the depth chart a bit, but he's still a great player to have on the team.

Sean Smith
Another size-CB, Smith has loads of it, standing 6'3.5" and weighing 214 lbs. Corners of this size are few and far between. Most draft analysts were writing him off as a CB and predicting a move to safety in the pros, but thus far he's shown a ton of promise at corner and he's already moved into the starting lineup. This is quite an impressive feat for a guy who has only been playing corner full-time for two years. Before that, he was a WR and RB, and those ball skills are immediately evident. Despite the strong early signs, Smith still needs a lot of seasoning. You'd think, given his size, that he'd be an imposing hitter and tackler, but those are actually weak points of his game. And with his height, it's inevitable that he will need work on his footwork and technique in order to keep up with smaller, shiftier WRs out of their breaks.

Joey Thomas
Thomas was signed by the team in October and played in six games in a reserve role. The team must like something about his game since they keep bringing him back, but I just don't see it. He's about to turn 29 years old, and I can't see the reason for giving him a roster spot. He's not a strong special teams player, and the only thing that sticks out in my mind about his play last year was him getting beat in coverage.

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Here's my predicted depth chart:
1. Will Allen
2. Sean Smith
3. Vontae Davis
4. Nathan Jones
5. Jason Allen

Training Camp Roster Breakdown 2009: Linebackers

Next up in the series of training camp positional previews are the linebackers.

Charlie Anderson
Anderson is very close to being another free agent bust. The team handed him a sizable contract worth $2.5 million a year and he did very little to earn that cash last season. He was given an opportunity last offseason to take over Jason Taylor's vacant starting position, but he was quickly eclipsed by Matt Roth. The most action he saw was as a situational pass rusher, but even in that role he only recorded 15 tackles and 2.5 sacks. A lot of fans think he really turned it on late last season, but the only thing they can probably remember him doing was blocking a punt, which while nice, is useless from a projection standpoint. And besides, if 2.5 sacks is turning it on, well then the team should probably be looking in another direction - and that they did, by signing Cameron Wake. Still, the team might not be willing to give up on Anderson after just one year and he'll have a chance to make the team, but he'll have to battle with Erik Walden and Quentin Moses. If nothing else, Anderson was active on special teams, finishing with 13 tackles, although he also committed several boneheaded penalties on special teams as well.

Akin Ayodele
Ayodele flies under the radar on this team, but he's still a useful player to have on the roster. He has his obvious limitations in pass coverage where he is below average, and as a pass rusher he is useless. Over the past two seasons, Ayodele has registered zero sacks, zero QB hits, and only three QB hurries. But as a run defender, Ayodele generally shines. He is the team's best run-stuffing MLB, and only Matt Roth is a better run-stuffer than him among the LBs. With Ayodele, you know what you're getting, and I don't expect that to change this season.

Channing Crowder
There was some question this offseason about whether the team would re-sign Crowder or let him walk as a free agent. The front office locked him up with a fair three-year deal that will see him stay on as the team's starting MLB for the foreseeable future. Never a good pass rusher, Crowder did take a small step in the right direction last year, recording 5 QB hits and 8 hurries, as opposed to his 2007 totals of 3 and 6. His run-stopping ability, while still average, also took small steps forward last year. Where he saw the most improvement was in coverage, increasing his success rate vs. passes from 31% up to 51%. There was a definite learning curve last year as Crowder took over the reigns of the defense formerly held by Zach Thomas, but if he can continue his gradual improvement this year, particularly against the run, the defense will be well-served. Crowder's been serviceable up to this point in his career, but I think there's still a ways to go before he reaches his ceiling.

J.D. Folsom
Folsom was such an unknown coming out of Weber State that even he didn't think he would be drafted and had already begun planning for veterinary school. He doesn't fit the Parcells/Ireland size requirements for LBs, as he is just 6'3, 228 lbs. What Folsom does bring to the table though is speed and special teams skills. He's a super long shot to make the team, but he would be a nice practice squad candidate.

William Kershaw
Kershaw was signed to Miami's practice squad in October of last year and was then called up to the active roster in December. He appeared in one game and was inactive for another. In his one game against the Chiefs, he made an impact on special teams, finishing with two tackles and a forced fumble. He's a candidate to make the team as a backup MLB, but I just don't think he offers enough to justify the roster spot.

Quentin Moses
Moses is an interesting development project. He showed enough in college to be a third-round draft pick, but then was cut by two teams before his rookie season even began. Miami then signed him and he's stuck around for two years. He hasn't showed anything really impressive during that time as he completed the transition from DE to OLB, but he has been improving. He's still only 25 years old and he likely has a higher upside than Charlie Anderson. It might be worth it to keep Moses over Anderson as a situational pass rusher and allow him to continue his development in this system.

Joey Porter
In his second season with the Dolphins, Porter returned to the 3-4 OLB position that he had excelled in during his time with the Steelers. And boy did that work wonders for him! He finished second in the league with 17.5 sacks, and added 6 QB hits and 12 hurries. Porter essentially had the entire duty of pass pressure put on his shoulders since no one else on the defense could seem to generate any kind of consistent pressure, and he responded better than anyone could have imagined. Of course, teams eventually figured out a way to neutralize his pass rush - run the ball right at him. In the last quarter of the season, this was a common tactic and Porter just ran out of steam. This was also an effective tactic because of how poorly Porter played against the run. On the surface, he actually improved his numbers on runs against him where he actually made the stop. Unfortunately, most of the time he was simply ridden out of the play by a blocker. KC Joyner found that Porter faced 82 Point of Attack runs and he defeated his blocker on only 8 of those plays, for an absolutely pathetic 9.8% win rate. He also allowed an average of 5.6 yards per attempt on those plays. Now 32 years old, it's almost impossible to expect another campaign with such gaudy pass rush numbers, but he'll still produce in that area. Where he needs to focus is the run game.

Matt Roth
Roth has had a perplexing offseason so far. There were stories that he had lied to the team about an illness that was actually a groin injury and that he's been medically cleared to play but yet he remains inactive on the Non-Football Injury list. No one really knows what's going on here other than the fact that Roth is yet to play in a single training camp practice thus far. In his absence, Jason Taylor has taken over the starting OLB spot opposite Joey Porter. Regardless of who starts, each player will get a lot of playing time in a rotation. The bigger issue is how much playing time Roth is risking by sitting out this long. If the majority of the snaps are being handled by Porter and Taylor, the team is going to be in trouble since it will be virtually impossible to stop the run. Roth really blossomed in his full-time transition to outside LB last season. Whereas he was too small to hold up against blockers as a DE, he is a dominant run-stopper as an OLB. His stop% against runs last year was 78% according to Football Outsiders, which was 15th best in the league. He also had a 24.6% POA win rate according to Joyner. Roth also improved a bit as a pass rusher last year, tallying 5 sacks, 2 hits, and 5 hurries. The team really needs him to return to the field ASAP.

Jason Taylor
The prodigal son returns! Taylor is back in Miami after his one-year hiatus in Washington, which turned out to be a bit of a lost season for Taylor. The Redskins had him playing out of position and then he went down with a serious leg injury. He's healthy now and back in the position where he saw so much success just a few years ago. He's also 35 years old now and no one should expect the same kind of production from Taylor that he put up so consistently in his first run with the team. He's definitely lost a step or three from his prime, but his game intelligence allows him to make up for some of his physical shortcomings. The plan was to use Taylor as a situational pass rusher, but Roth's extended absence has forced him into a starting role. That's a role he's no longer suited for since he is such a liability against the run. Of all the players currently on Miami's roster, Taylor had the worst stop% vs. the run last year, at 63%. He allowed an average of 3.7 yards on those runs where he made the stop (It was 68% and 3.6 yds in 2007). Taylor can be an effective, disruptive force for this team, but he needs to be in a rotation with Roth in order to avoid getting worn down and run over.

Reggie Torbor
Torbor was rather underwhelming in his first season in Miami, coming off the bench as the primary backup MLB. He didn't show any impressive pass rushing or coverage abilities. He was adequately stout against the run though. Coaches say that he has been improving this offseason, and with his experience, he provides a decent stopgap in case an injury strikes. He was also very active on special teams, tallying 11 tackles.

Cameron Wake
I've already written extensively about Wake on this site, so I'll just repeat some of those things here:

Signing Wake from the CFL was akin to a baseball team signing a dominant player from one of the Dominican or Japanese leagues. The talent level he faced up there obviously doesn't compare to what he'll see in the NFL, but dominance is dominance, and I'm interested in any young player who has already achieved that kind of production on a professional level. He may not be any good against the run, but he's a top prospect because of his singular ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Is Wake going to step right in and deliver double digit sacks like he was doing in Canada? Nope. But people shouldn't expect him to. He's likely going to be one of the bottom linebackers on the depth chart this season, so his playing time may be sporadic. He has a lot to learn, especially when it comes to stopping the run, before he is granted any role larger than what Charlie Anderson held last year. But like I said, I'd much rather have Wake taking those limited snaps this year and improving his game so that he can hopefully have a bigger role next year.

The big issue with Wake is that his pass rush moves seem to be limited at the moment to simply speed rushing past the defender. There will be times when that's not enough, and as defenders scout him they will be ready to stop it. He needs to develop a secondary move in order to acclimate to the NFL game.

Erik Walden
Miami claimed Walden off waivers in November last year and he was immediately put to use on special teams where he proved to be especially adept. In six games with Miami, he recorded 5 special teams tackles. Before coming to the Dolphins, he had recorded 10 special teams tackles with Kansas City. Whether he can be a factor as a linebacker remains to be seen, but his special teams prowess should earn him a spot on the roster.

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Here's my predicted depth chart:
OLB - Jason Taylor
ILB - Akin Ayodele
ILB - Channing Crowder
OLB - Joey Porter

Backups:
1. Matt Roth
2. Reggie Torbor
3. Cameron Wake
4. Erik Walden
5. Quentin Moses

Roster moves aplenty

The Dolphins front office was extremely busy today, trimming the roster down with some cuts and making a trade as well.

First, the team released WR Ernest Wilford, RB Anthony Kimble, LB Orion Martin, LB Tearrius George, and NT Joe Cohen. WR Chris Williams was also waived/injured, but it is believed that the team is trying to reach an injury settlement with him. If they do not, and no other team claims him off waivers, he would revert to Miami's Injured Reserve list. Apparently, Williams broke his left hand in Saturday's preseason game against the Panthers.

Wilford's release ends the tenure of what was an incredibly poor free agent pickup last offseason. The team gave him $6 million guaranteed last year, and he will cost the team $4.5 million against the cap this year. This, my friends, is the penalty for poor free agent signings (throw Eric Green on that trash heap, too).

In a positive move, the team was able to turn some of its offensive line depth into future resources. G Andy Alleman and T Ikechuku Ndukwe were traded to the Kansas City Chiefs in return for an undisclosed 2010 draft pick. I love this kind of move. It shows the benefits of bringing in young players with some level of potential. Even though Miami didn't have a huge need for either one of them, what with the emergence of Shawn Murphy and the acquisition of Joe Berger, the team was able to turn them into a future draft pick. This is just a small example of why it's so important to stock the second and third strings of the team with young developmental players. They can be treated like a farm system, and if their progress toward playing time is impeded, as it was in this case, the team can still profit off of them.

With all of these departures, the Dolphins roster now stands at 71 players, including Matt Roth who is still on the Non-Football Injury List. The NFL requires its teams to be at 75 players or less by September 1, so the team now has room to actually add players if they so choose. Of course, anyone brought in between now and the final roster cuts likely doesn't stand a very good chance of making the team, so perhaps the coaches just want to get more reps for the players who are on the roster right now.

Training Camp Roster Breakdown 2009: Defensive line

Today I'm beginning my look at the defensive side of the ball with the defensive linemen. I'm going to switch up the order in which I list the players and simply go alphabetically by last name.

As a unit, however, the defensive line took great strides forward last season in terms of shutting down the run. After being the NFL's second-worst run-defenders in 2007 with an average of 4.47 ALY allowed, the team finished 2008 allowing an average of 4.11 ALY, good for 14th in the league. Now a lot of that had to do with Matt Roth taking over for Jason Taylor at OLB, but the young defensive ends played their part in this success as well.

Now on the individual players.

Ryan Baker
Baker was signed as an undrafted free agent this year, but the front office definitely loves his size at defensive end (6'5, 295). I've heard some good things coming out of camp about him, but the numbers game along the defensive line probably make the practice squad the most realistic option for Baker, at least to begin this season. You can never have enough big run-stuffing DEs in a 3-4.

Joe Cohen
Cohen finished the season last year on Miami's practice squad. He's been serving as a nose tackle prospect, but thus far he hasn't really shown anything to make the front office think he could eventually replace Jason Ferguson.

Lionel Dotson
As a seventh-round draft pick, it was pretty impressive that Dotson made the team's roster for every game last season, even if he was inactive for 14 of them. Dotson played DT in college, so much of last year was spent transitioning him to play DE in Miami's 3-4 scheme. He seems to have gotten more comfortable this training camp, and should find a way on the roster as a reserve player.

Louis Ellis
Interestingly enough, Ellis is the only player on Miami's roster listed as a nose tackle. The team signed him as an UDFA this year and he seems like a good bet to make the practice squad, as the front office is always looking for future NTs. He was named the CIAA Defensive Player of the Year the past two seasons. Coming from a small school (Shaw), he'll need a lot of technique and conditioning work, but it's easy to see the potential there.

Jason Ferguson
The trade for Ferguson worked out great for Miami, as he was able to stay healthy for the most part and allowed the 3-4 to function as the coaches envisioned. However, he'll be turning 35 this season, and even if he makes it through the whole season, he needs a solid backup who can hold down the middle of the line while Ferguson takes a breather on the sideline. Randy Starks filled that role capably last year, but he is in the running for the starting right defensive end spot this year. Just to demonstrate the need for a quality backup NT, Ferguson was only directly involved in 21 plays last year (tackles, passes defensed, etc.) or 2.7% of the team's total defensive plays. Now compare that with other NTs like Vince Wilfork (67 plays, 9.1%), Kris Jenkins (54 plays, 6.5%), or Jay Ratliff (55 plays, 7.2%). So while Ferguson may be a great run-stuffer when he's in there, the amount of plays he's actually available for is dwindling.

Kendall Langford
Langford turned out to be a tremendous selection last year, earning the starting LDE job as a rookie and holding it down for the entire year. As expected, he was a monster against the run, allowing a paltry 1.8 yard average on the 29 runs he made tackles on. Furthermore, the team allowed an average of only 3.13 ALY over right end, good for 11th in the NFL. His 86% stop percentage on runs was tied for best on the team with Vonnie Holliday. Langford does need to improve his pass rush, however. He started the season off strong with two quick sacks, but those would be his only two of the year. He finished with zero QB hits and only four hurries. Those numbers have to go up.

Orion Martin
Martin is listed as a DE on the team's roster, but he's been practicing as a linebacker. An UDFA out of Virginia Tech, I expected Martin to get drafted and was quite pleased to see him end up in Miami as a free agent. He's a bit of a 'tweener right now, as he transitions from DE to LB, but he has top notch intangibles and is a great special teamer. He is a prime candidate for the practice squad, where he can refine some pass rush moves from a stand-up position and help this team down the road.

Tony McDaniel
Miami traded a seventh-round pick for McDaniel this offseason. He's seen some starting reps in practice at defensive end, but his ultimate role will probably be as a utility lineman who can play any of the three positions when needed, much like Randy Starks was last year. He already has three seasons of NFL experience under his belt despite being only 24 years old. The major issue with him has been his ability to stay on the field during those three seasons, having already missed 23 games in his short career due to injury. He has said that he is willing to play some DT and NT, although his height (6'7) may make that a tough task. Still, he had a respectable 79% overall stop percentage last season and should make for useful rotation player.

Phillip Merling
Merling actually got outplayed by Langford last year by a wide margin, despite being drafted with the 32nd overall pick in the draft. His overall stop percentage of 57% was atrocious, but it was his 68% stop percentage on runs that really stood out as needing immediate improvement. Only Jason Taylor had a worse rate last season (among players on Miami this year). That's a bit odd since he was such a good run-stuffer in college, and I'd expect him to get things turned around. Merling did show some promise as a pass rusher though. He finished with 3 QB hits and 6 hurries. Unfortunately, he is continuing with his habit of not always playing all out in practice, which makes it difficult for the coaches to properly evaluate him. It may lead to Randy Starks taking the starting job from Merling. Even if that happens though, Merling is going to play a key role in the line rotation.

Paul Soliai
Whenever it seems like Soliai is in danger of playing himself off this team, he turns things around and flashes that tremendous potential that made him one of my favorite picks of his draft class. He's really the only true NT that can help back up Ferguson right now. Sure, Starks, McDaniel, and others could probably do it as well, but that would take them away from the DE rotation. After flaming out in a big way his rookie year, he finally seemed to turn things on in the second half of 2008. And, realistically, it takes a long time to fully develop as a nose tackle. I think if Soliai can get his weight under control once and for all and get over whatever issues caused him to get suspended by the team twice last season, he will finally start to prove that he is a serious option for this team's future at NT.

Randy Starks
Starks was a great free agent addition last season. He turned out to be a jack-of-all trades along the defensive line, playing some DE, DT, and NT. Even though he wasn't a starter, he made 32 plays, which was the third highest total on the team among defensive linemen. He was good against the run (79 St%) and great against the pass (88 St%). He also finished with a D-linemen high of 8 QB hurries and 3 QB hits, tacking on 3 sacks as well. Starks is still just 26 years old and there is definitely untapped potential remaining. He is on his way to winning a starting DE job, and with that he may take another step forward in his game.

Rodrique Wright
Wright was inactive for all 16 regular season games in 2008, but he did see some playing time in the playoffs against Baltimore. He seems to be at the point in his career where his great upside may just be turning into unrealized potential. If he hasn't shown anything up to this point in his career, it may be time to cut ties and move on. He'll have an opportunity to battle with Dotson for the final DL spot on the roster, but I think Dotson has more to offer at this point.

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Here's my predicted depth chart:
DE - Randy Starks
NT - Jason Ferguson
DE - Kendall Langford

Backups:
1. Phillip Merling
2. Tony McDaniel
3. Paul Soliai
4. Lionel Dotson

I told you so....the Eric Green edition

Well, that didn't take long did it.

The Dolphins thankfully realized the error of their ways and released the cornerback who was consistently getting torched day in and day out in practice - Eric Green, the guy they inexplicably signed for $6 million this offseason.

And I hate to say it...but I told you so. This acquisition couldn't have been more easy to predict as a failure.

Here is the column I wrote right after the team signed Green. Here's an excerpt:

	Tgts	Success Rate	Rank	APaYd	Rank
'08 season	-	41%	58		53
'07 season	76	41%	71	8.3	59
'07 vs. #1 WR	36	40%		9.0
'07 vs. #2 WR	16	36%		8.2
'07 vs. Other WR	14	45%		9.1

To put it bluntly, those numbers are awful. To rank among the worst starting cornerbacks in the league two years in a row (when you are in the prime years of your career no less!) is a clear indication that you should not be starting anymore. Heck, judging by his performance against backup receivers in 2007, I question his viability at any level of the depth chart.

This is just another triumph for advanced metrics. If they are showing trends that strongly, it's impossible to ignore them, and it makes me wonder what good they ever saw in Green in the first place.

Thankfully, Parcells and Ireland changed their propensity to shy away from drafting cornerbacks highly, and took not one but two highly rated CBs in the draft this year.

But this whole episode speaks to another phenomenon that irritates me to no end - the homer fan who simply cannot accept that statistics show that a player was and very likely will continue to be a poor player. Before Miami signed him, I had seen Eric Green in only the most limited capacity, and yet even I could tell that he was awful just by researching his metrics. Obviously, it's always nice to have your own scouting-based reactions to players, but when the numbers are that bad over multiple years, you really don't need to "wait and see for yourself."

Here's a few of the comments that were posted on that article over at The Phinsider:

This is too negative for my taste. This is not our September team its our March team. I just think we should relax and give it more time.

I’ll trust in the front office and their judgement. Once the season starts, if these guys start getting torched for yards and TDs, then i’ll be concerned.

We’re Dolphins fans. Let’s boost these guys confidence, not pick it apart. Fans = support. Breaking out poor stats = detractors.

The point is, we as fans, with little more than some numbers and the observations of fans who have seen these free agents play for their whole careers, can make pretty accurate assessments about the abilities of players. Just because Parcells and Ireland sign someone doesn't always mean it was the best move to be made. No one is perfect. The team is acknowledging that fact by cutting ties with Green weeks before the first round of cuts even need to be made.

I applaud that willingness to accept a mistake and move on. Now they just need to work on limiting how often these kinds of moves need to be made. I just hope I don't have to write another one of these columns concerning Jake Grove.