Reader Question: RB/NT replacements

It's time for another question I received from a reader.

Are Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams free agents next year? If they are, do you think that the Dolphins would draft a back in the first few rounds in 2010? Also, can you give an update as far as a possible rookie backup for Jason Ferguson. I saw that they had a couple of young guys in camp but haven't heard anything else.

As far as Ronnie and Ricky's contract situations go, Ronnie is in the final year of his 5-year rookie contract while Ricky is also in the last year of his contract.

If the team does not extend his contract, Ricky will become a free agent after this season. However, Ricky recently said that he only plans to play two more seasons before retiring. That means that the Dolphins would only have to offer him a one-year extension if they want to hold on to him. Free from having to make any kind of long-term financial commitment to him may tip the scales toward Miami extending him so he can finish his career with the Dolphins.

Ronnie's situation is up in the air at the moment because it hinges on whether the league and the players' union can agree on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. If no new deal is agreed on, 2010 becomes an uncapped year, and only players with six or more seasons would be unrestricted free agents. All other players whose contracts were expiring would become restricted free agents, Ronnie included.

To recap: Without a new CBA, Ronnie becomes a restricted free agent. With a new CBA, Ronnie becomes an unrestricted free agent.

As far as drafting a running back high in next year's draft, that depends on a lot of things. Obviously, if Ronnie becomes a restricted free agent, the team will probably sign him to a one-year tender offer. If he becomes an unrestricted free agent, the team might just decide to let him go and get younger. Obviously, that would upset a lot of fans, but the facts are facts, and it's undeniable that running backs start declining after age 28, not to mention that Ronnie's already had one major injury and while he's been very good at times, he's not elite. I don't think many running backs are worth huge money, and it would be tough to justify handing a huge five or six year contract to Brown during or after this season. Now, if we could get him to sign a more reasonable three or four year extension, I'd definitely be in favor of that.

Drafting another RB in 2010 also depends on whether Ricky re-signs, how Patrick Cobbs progresses, and whether Lex Hilliard or Anthony Kimble show any promise. As it is now, I can certainly see the desire to get a replacement RB in the system soon, but there's still too much up in the air to tell if next year is the year to do it. It's important to remember that most college RBs adjust to the NFL quicker than almost any other position. So it's not as if a young RB is going to need lots of time to mature on the bench.

*****

As far as the nose tackle position goes, I surmised after the draft that the coaches must have regained some confidence in Paul Soliai after his strong finish to last season since they didn't draft a NT prospect. I was extremely high on Soliai after we drafted him, and I'm not ready to give up on him yet, but it's clear the team shouldn't be solely relying on him to backup and replace Ferguson.

Joe Cohen was a young guy they brought in last year, but I think the UDFA they signed this year, Louis Ellis, has more potential to stick around. Here is SI.com's Draft Analysis of Ellis:

Ellis is a physically talented lineman who was an outstanding small school player, and he possesses the skills to make an NFL roster. If he does what is necessary off-the-field to become a better football player, he could stick around the NFL for a while.

He may need a season on the practice squad, but he has definite upside.

The bottom line is that the depth behind Jason Ferguson is really scary right now because it is so inexperienced and unknown. It will be important to keep an eye on Soliai, Cohen, and Ellis throughout training camp to see if any is stepping up.

Will Allen re-ups for two more years

With free agency over with and Miami standing about $12.8 million under the salary cap, they have the ability to start looking forward to next offseason by extending the contracts of players they want to keep around.

And that they did with CB Will Allen, signing him to a two-year contract extension. His contract was set to expire after this coming season.

He is now under contract with the Dolphins for the next three seasons, and he will earn $16.2 million over that time, with $10 million of that guaranteed over the next two seasons. Allen was originally scheduled to make $4 million this year, so this new contract represents $12 million of new money.

Allen is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, and although he is starting to get old, when you consider that other top flight CBs have recently signed deals worth $10+ million per year, Allen's $5.4 million yearly average seems like a bargain.

Memorial Day Hijinks

As an NFL observer, when the Memorial Day weekend rolls around you brace yourself and wait for an arrest or two to be reported and just hope that the player does not play for your team.

Well, this year, Miami fans were not so lucky.

In an incredible display of stupidity, DE Randy Starks was arrested early Sunday morning. For what you may ask?

I'll just throw out some key phrases and you can guess what happened.

A black freightliner designed for four passengers.

13 passengers.

Starks driving said freightliner.

A woman sitting on Starks' lap.

The result of that motley situation? A police officer pinned between the freightliner and another car and Starks being arrested and charged with aggravated battery.

For the full story of what went down, go here.

It's safe to say that Starks displayed some rare idiocy today, even for the NFL's standards. And even though Parcells has said he won't tolerate "thugs or hoodlums", it's obvious that's not always the case, or a guy like J.D. Quinn wouldn't be on the team.

Bottom line, Starks acted laughably stupid, but he shouldn't get cut for it.

Nalbone is first rookie signed

Miami signed TE John Nalbone, a fifth-round pick this year, to a four-year deal with a $173,000 signing bonus. His contract also includes an escalator clause in 2012 for the low restricted agent tender if he reaches 35 percent playing time in any of the next four seasons.

Nalbone is the first of Miami's nine draft picks to sign this year, and his signing signals Miami's commitment to getting a good deal of its rookies signed very early in the offseason, much like they did last year.

Here are how his yearly salaries break down:
2009 - $310,000
2010 - $395,000
2011 - $480,000
2012 - $565,000

In my opinion, Nalbone is pretty much assured of a spot on the roster given that it'd be very unlikely for him to pass through waivers and be available for the practice squad. He's a promising young player and Joey Haynos is going to have quite the challenge making this roster - unless David Martin's reported offseason sports hernia surgery turns out badly.

Polite gets extension

Just catching up with a bit of old news here, but FB Lousaka Polite signed a two-year extension earlier this week.

His deal had been set to expire after this coming season. He is now under contract with the Dolphins for the next three seasons, and his contract is worth $3.7 million over that time frame.

It's hard not to like this deal since Polite was so absolutely dominant in short-yardage situations, but his primary duties as a fullback - run-blocking - while sufficient, could use some work. Luckily for us, he will now have the luxury of being with the team over the offseason and I suspect he'll be even better this year.

Injury issues begin

Few people realize how incredibly lucky the Dolphins were on the injury-front last season. And that's just what it was - luck.

No one should be expecting the same run of good health this year, and the team is already seeing some players in injury trouble, as G Donald Thomas tore a pectoral muscle lifting weights during OTAs and its possible that WR Greg Camarillo could begin the season on the PUP list, although that may end up having more to do with a glut of options at WR than Greg's actual recovery.

Still, Thomas' injury is concerning, since it knocks him out of the entire training camp period. After missing essentially the entire season last year due to a Lisfranc fracture, Thomas' development time is being washed away. He is expected to be ready to go by the start of the season, but it's unrealistic to think he'd just be thrown back into the starting lineup with zero practice.

Of course, Miami's depth at G is not exactly strong as they didn't address the position in the Draft, even though a promising player like Duke Robinson was available into the fifth round. The team still has Ikechuku Ndukwe, who filled in for Thomas last year, but he proved to be the weak link on the line and never really got much better as the season went on. Perhaps another year's training camp could correct some things.

Other options include Andy Alleman, who I am high on, as well as Shawn Murphy, who may still be limited to solely playing left guard, and Joe Berger.

UDFAs J.D. Quinn (he of the three DUIs) and Mark Lewis could also see time there.

All in all, it's not encouraging to see Thomas turning into such an injury-prone player this early in his career.

Draft Analysis: Dolphins clearly not keen on smokescreens

Leading up to the Draft, I paid particular attention to the wonderful work of Simon Clancy, who was writing a guest column on Dave Hyde's blog.

Clancy kept a very detailed list of which players had confirmed interviews and visits with the team. He tracked which players

a) Interviewed at the Senior Bowl.
b) Interviewed at the Combine
c) Attended or worked out at the respective school pro day and shown specific interest in.
d) Privately worked out on campus or at Davie.

He did this because over time, Jeff Ireland, Bill Parcells and Brian Gaine have made it quite evident that they rarely consider a player on draft day who they didn't meet with in the run-up to the Draft. For instance, you need look no further back than last year when every player that Miami drafted, with the sole exception of Phillip Merling, was worked out at least once or interviewed at length by the team. And even in Merling's case, the team was still present at the Clemson pro day.

So keeping track of this list of players gives you a very clear idea of which players are in play to be drafted by Miami.

So was it the same this year? Let's go through Miami's selections and see how many appear on the list:

On the list

• CB Vontae Davis
• QB Pat White
• CB Sean Smith
• WR Patrick Turner (not on the list, but he did meet with the team in Davie and at USC)
  
• WR Brian Hartline
• TE John Nalbone
• LB J.D. Folsom (not on the list, but Miami did work him out at WSU Pro Day)
  

Not on the list

• S Chris Clemons
  
• T Andrew Gardner

While not every player was on the list, a majority of them were, and most importantly all six of the top six draft picks were on the list. That shows that when it comes to the top of the draft, Miami isn't going to stray from who they know very often.

It's also interesting to note that WR Brennan Marion, signed as an UDFA, was also on the list.

So let this be a lesson and keep this in mind next year: If your favorite top college player hasn't been worked out or interviewed by the team, there's a really good chance he's not going to hear his name called by Miami on Draft day.