2009 Season and Week 1 Predictions

With the Dolphins' season beginning tomorrow afternoon, now is a good time to post my predictions for the team's season as well as for their week one game versus the Falcons.

For the season, I'm predicting a 7-9 record and falling short of the playoffs. I think Miami will finish second in the AFC East behind the Patriots.

But a losing season after Miami's magical 2008 campaign doesn't mean this season would have been a lost one. All the young players need to show significant improvement and I think they'll get every opportunity to do so. If they do, Miami should set itself up in prime position to compete in 2010.

There's just too much riding against Miami this year. They have the fourth toughest schedule in the league according to opponents' projected DVOA; their immaculate health from last season will regress to the mean; and Miami's historically low turnover rate will inevitably rise. It may be too much to expect two straight seasons of complete health from Chad Pennington. It's also been shown that teams that win four or fewer games one season and ten or more the next season go on to drop an average of 2.7 games the following year. At this point, I don't see why Miami would be the exception to the rule.

All this being said, there's obviously still a decent chance that Miami could buck the trends two seasons in a row and make the playoffs again. After last year, I won't write anything off. But that doesn't mean I'm going to predict that that is what's going to happen.

As for Miami's first game against the Falcons, I actually think the Phins can and will find some way to pull this game out. Miami's defense is certainly going to face a really tough test against Michael Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Matt Ryan. But Atlanta's defense is so putrid that Pennington should be able to carve it up with ease.

If this game were at home, I'd be much more confident about predicting a win. But I am in fact predicting a win regardless.

Joey Haynos Song

Found this video on Omar Kelly's blog and thought it was fantastic.

If at first you don't succeed, you're not Joey Haynos.

Drew waived; Garner promoted

TE Davon Drew, who was picked up on waivers from the Ravens just a few days ago, was waived/injured with ankle issues.

In his place, the team promoted T Nate Garner from the practice squad, giving the team the more conventional nine offensive linemen.

To take Garner's spot on the practice squad, the team signed TE Kory Sperry.

Sperry is a rookie out of Colorado State who spent training camp with the Chargers. Here is SI.com's analysis of him:

Sperry is one of the better pass catchers in this years tight end class. His lack of speed as well as his prior injury will send up red flags gets. Sperry could make an NFL roster as a third tight end for an offense which consistently puts him in motion prior to the snap.

He's clearly a catch-first tight end who needs a lot of work as a blocker and may be better suited as an H-back.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

• DE Ryan Baker
• CB Will Billingsley
• LB J.D. Folsom
• G/C Mark Lewis
• WR James Robinson
• LB Danny Lansanah
• WR Julius Pruitt
• TE Kory Sperry
  

Recapping the weekend's roster cuts and moves

With the league mandating that all teams be down to 53 players by this past Saturday, let's look at who got cut in Miami:

Released

• S Courtney Bryan
• T Brandon Frye
• LB William Kershaw
• WR Brandon London
• CB Joey Thomas
• DE Rodrique Wright
• T Nate Garner
• CB Will Billingsley
• DE Ryan Baker
• G Mark Lewis
• LB J.D. Folsom
• WR James Robinson

In addition, Matt Roth was placed on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury List. This means that Roth will not be eligible to play or practice for the first six weeks of the season.

TE David Martin was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury that will likely require arthroscopic surgery. Many people think releasing Martin was a surprise, but I've been predicting it all offseason.

The team was also awarded TE Davon Drew off waivers from Baltimore. Drew was a fifth-round pick in this year's draft. This was NFL.com's Pick Analysis of Drew after the draft:

The Ravens grab an athletic receiving tight end with good hands and ball skills. Drew has only spent a few seasons at the position, but he has flashed enough skill as a pass catcher that he is viewed a potential H-back as a pro.

The Dolphins also filled up their practice squad with the following eight players:

• DE Ryan Baker
• CB Will Billingsley
• LB J.D. Folsom
• T Nate Garner
• G/C Mark Lewis
• WR James Robinson
• LB Danny Lansanah
• WR Julius Pruitt

Six of the practice squad players were with the Dolphins during training camp. Lansanah and Pruitt are the new additions.

As far as my roster prediction went, I think I did a pretty good job. I put Matt Roth on it even though I knew he would end up ineligible to play for the first six weeks, which explains why I left off Lex Hilliard. I also incorrectly guessed that Brandon London and Brandon Frye would make the team and that Charlie Anderson would be left off. But I correctly called the David Martin release and got the rest of the roster spot on. Not too bad.

2009 Predicted 53-Man Roster

After going back through my series of training camp positional breakdowns which all included a predicted depth chart for each position, here is what my 53-man roster would look like. I had to substitute Brandon Frye for Andy Alleman on the offensive line since Alleman was traded.

I also put Matt Roth on the roster, although he very well might start the season on the PUP list, thereby opening up another roster spot. As it is, don't expect the very bottom of the roster to remain unchanged. The last few guys on are likely to get cut in favor of waiver pickups, just like last year.

	1st String	2nd String	3rd String
QB	Chad Pennington	Chad Henne	Pat White
RB	Ronnie Brown	Ricky Williams	Patrick Cobbs
FB	Lousaka Polite
TE	Anthony Fasano	Joey Haynos	John Nalbone
WR	Ted Ginn	Davone Bess	Patrick Turner
WR	Brian Hartline	Greg Camarillo	Brandon London
LT	Jake Long	Andrew Gardner
LG	Justin Smiley	Brandon Frye
C	Jake Grove	Joe Berger
RG	Donald Thomas	Shawn Murphy
RT	Vernon Carey
LDE	Kendall Langford	Phillip Merling
NT	Jason Ferguson	Paul Soliai
RDE	Randy Starks	Tony McDaniel	Lionel Dotson
LOLB	Jason Taylor	Quentin Moses	Matt Roth
LILB	Channing Crowder	Reggie Torbor
RILB	Akin Ayodele
ROLB	Joey Porter	Cameron Wake	Erik Walden
LCB	Will Allen	Vontae Davis	Jason Allen
RCB	Sean Smith	Nathan Jones
SS	Yeremiah Bell	Chris Clemons
FS	Gibril Wilson	Tyrone Culver
K	Dan Carpenter
P	Brandon Fields
LS	John Denney

Ricky Williams signs extension

Ricky Williams has made it clear that he intends to retire after the 2010 season.

And now it looks like that final year will be played with the Dolphins. The team signed Ricky to a one-year contract extension running through 2010. Ricky will make $3.4 million this season and $4.35 million in 2010. It's unknown how much of that money is guaranteed.

That's quite a bit of cash for a 32-year old running back, but a lot of it could be tied to incentives. In any case, it will be nice to see Ricky retire as a Dolphin.

Training Camp Roster Breakdown 2009: Specialists

The final segment of the training camp positional breakdowns looks at the specialists. Tomorrow, I'll go back through the previews and compile my predicted depth charts to see what my predicted 53-man roster will look like (trimming or adding players as necessary).

Dan Carpenter
If you look only at field goal percentage, then yes, Dan Carpenter had a nice rookie season. But as I've written here many a time, it's been shown (by Football Outsiders and the New York Times among others) that field goal accuracy is almost entirely random from year to year. Kickoff distance, on the other hand, is extremely consistent from year to year. So when trying to predict what Carpenter will do in his second season, you can pretty much toss out his 84% on field goals, and instead focus on his 64.1 yard average kickoff distance - a poor number that is only made worse when squib kicks are taken out of the equation. According to FO, Carpenter had the 29th ranked gross kickoff value over average in 2008, better than only four other kickers in the league. That kind of performance on kickoffs is simply not acceptable, especially with such a leaky coverage unit. It makes one pine for the days of Olindo Mare, who once again led the league in gross kickoff value, and who is perennially among the very best in that category. (I still wish the team hadn't gotten rid of him.) Carpenter's lack of leg strength showed up on offense too, as the coaching staff would simply not let him attempt a field goal over 50 yards. He only attempted one field goal from that distance all season. Field goals from that distance are admittedly difficult, but to simply not have the option is undesirable. I hope he can improve his leg strength this year, but the research makes that a bleak proposition.

John Denney
A perfectly fine long snapper, I don't recall him botching any snaps this year. He also tacked on four special teams tackles. The coaches haven't brought in any competition for him since they got here, so he must be fine.

Brandon Fields
Once again, Fields was one of the very few players in training camp who had no competition. His numbers last year were essentially the same as his rookie year, trending slightly upward in average distance (43.2 yds to 43.9 yds) but trending slightly downward in net average (36.6 to 35.5). Where he really improved was placing his punts inside the 20 yard line and forcing fair catches. He put 24 punts inside the 20, and forced 15 fair catches. Fields does have a booming leg, but he can sometimes out-kick the coverage, leading to a big return. He's still not as consistent as I'd like to see. It hurts that Miami traded away Donnie Jones for the draft pick that was used to take Fields. Jones is one of the best punters in the league and finished 3rd in the league last year in gross punt value over average. At this stage, Fields is just an average punter.

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There's no competition for any of the spots here, so this will be easy:
K - Dan Carpenter
P - Brandon Fields
LS - John Denney