Lehan re-signed to three-year deal

CB Michael Lehan was re-signed yesterday to a three-year deal worth $4.95 million. This includes $2.1 million in the first year.

Lehan started 14 games for the Dolphins last year after Andre' Goodman went down with an injury in training camp. Lehan proved to be a pleasant surprise, and while he is probably not starter material for the future, his retention is a good move. His is only 28 years old, so he still has plenty of good years left in him.

The structure of the contract is also beneficial. Miami is awash in cap space (~ $44 million) so it has the room to front-load contracts this year. Lehan's contract will only get cheaper as he ages, and thus he becomes easier to cut in future years if his play slips. This was a very solid move.

Lehan finished last season with 57 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 7 passes defensed.

Free Agency Preview: Quarterbacks

As the Scouting Combine begins to get under way, a lot of attention is going to turn towards the Draft. However, with free agency beginning on February 29, now is a good time to take a look at the likely options that will be available in free agency, and to determine which players Miami should steer clear of and which players might make a good fit for the Dolphins.

In order to properly assess the options available, we must establish some guidelines for what this team is looking for. This team is officially rebuilding. I would put its ETA as a competing team in the range of 2-3 years from now. Given that reality, any free agents the Dolphins add should be added with a view towards that eventual time frame.

Here are a few rules the team should adhere to as it starts to shop around:

• Go for youth/stay clear from older players. This team is not one or two players away from competing. Thus, older veterans with little left in the tank should not be brought aboard. Miami needs to look for young players with upside still remaining so that they can be developed while the team is rebuilding. Older players have generally reached their potential already and will demand a large salary for little production. As a flexible rule, Miami should only look to add players who are under 30 years old.
• Avoid the Joey Porter-type salaries. Maintaining a healthy salary cap from year to year is critical for any team, and especially one with a long-term plan of rebuilding. If Miami is going to spend the big-bucks on a player in free agency (and with $35 million in cap space they most likely will) that player had better be young and getting better, not old and declining. One bad contract could hamper the team for years down the line.
• Avoid character-issues. Miami is in no position to be taking risks on players with character concerns. Their potential does not outweigh the risks.
• Horde draft picks. Miami needs every draft pick that it can muster. It shouldn't even think about trading away picks for restricted free agents.

Let's begin our look at the possible free agents that will be available with the quarterback position.

The situation: Miami's only viable option at QB at this moment is John Beck. And that's not such a bad thing, in my opinion. He's young and has a great amount of untapped potential - a perfect mix for a rebuilding project. Miami has the time to let him develop, so let's let him develop. We don't need an old veteran to come in and start. What good will that be to this team down the line? However, an older QB could be useful as a backup/mentor for Beck.

Free agents:

• Derek Anderson, RFA: Anderson may sign an extension to stay in Cleveland, but if he doesn't the Browns might put a restricted free agent tender on him forcing any team that wants him to pony up a first-round and third-round draft pick or possibly even two first-round picks. Anderson was pretty good this year. He was nowhere near being good enough to warrant that kind of investment. Anderson came out of nowhere this year, and for all we know this season could have been little more than a flash in the pan. I doubt that it was, but no one knows whether he can maintain that level of play in the future. If he were an unrestricted free agent, I would be very excited about adding Anderson, but with the added price tag of high draft picks, it simply isn't worth it.
• Rex Grossman, UFA: It should be clear by now that Grossman is too erratic to rely on as a starting QB. Sure, he may turn in a dazzling performance now and again, but more often than not you are going to get horrendous starts out of him. Some coaches might think they can fix that, but I'm not of that opinion. He's had ample opportunity to change, and he hasn't. I wouldn't expect that to suddenly change with a change in scenery. If Miami brought him in strictly to serve as the backup, I would be okay with that. But if he were to take starting reps away from Beck, that would not sit well with me. I doubt Parcells and Ireland will want him anyway, as he is much smaller (6'1", 217 lbs.) than they would prefer.
• Daunte Culpepper, UFA: Umm...no. With the way that Culpepper and Miami parted ways, I think it's best to stay away from a reunion. Add to that the fact that Culpepper is 30 and will likely never be back to his old form and he becomes one guy to stay away from for sure.
• Josh McCown, UFA: McCown is nothing special, but he is still relatively young (28) and isn't completely terrible - two things that would make him a decent backup for Miami. At 6'4", he's got the height that Parcells would like. Still, I think the Phins can do better than this.
  
• Quinn Gray, UFA: I would love to see Miami sign Gray to be the backup QB. He's only 28 years old and in his brief appearances has played pretty well. Gray played in 8 games last season for the Jaguars (4 starts) and put up 986 yards with 10 TDs and only 5 INTs. His QB rating was 85.6 and his DVOA rating was a surpring 19.5%, good for 12th best in the league (see here for explanation). If Jacksonville doesn't resign Gray, Miami should jump on him quickly.
• Trent Green, UFA: Yes, Miami recently cut Green, but both sides were amenable to rejoining one another. Green certainly doesn't fit the youth characteristic, but as I have written about previously, if Green were to come back strictly as the third string QB, I would like to have him back. In that position, he would serve primarily as a second QB coach for Beck, and it seems like Beck and Green had a very good relationship this past season. I think Beck would be well-served from another year with Green by his side. Unfortunately, I doubt Green's competitive desire will allow him to accept such a role.

While there are no "must-haves" in this pool of free agents, I think that Miami's shopping list should be (in order of preference):

1. Quinn Gray
2. Rex Grossman
3. Josh McCown

Most of the other guys should be avoided.

My ideal lineup at QB next season would be:

1. John Beck
2. Quinn Gray
3. Rookie
   

Homage to Zach Thomas

Talk about having your heart ripped out on Valentine's Day...

Zach Thomas, the heart and soul of the Miami Dolphins, has been released by the team. This is a sad, sad day, indeed.

With the exception of Dolphins fans, I'm almost certain that a majority of NFL fans don't really know or understand just how amazing a football player Thomas has been for over a decade.

Quick, name the best three middle linebackers in the league over the past five years. Was Thomas on that list? He should have topped it.

In my mind, and the minds of many other Dolphans, Thomas has become somewhat of a "Dan Marino of the defense," if you will: The shining beacon for what it means to be the best at your position. He's the one guy you would point to if you had to show someone how to play middle linebacker.

An underdog from day one, Thomas was told he was too small to play in the NFL. After all, he's only 5'11", 228 lbs. But as they say, "It's not the size of the dog in the fight..." I have never seen anyone exemplify that old saying more than Zach.

Sure, he is undersized, but he has outproduced almost every other middle linebacker in the past decade. He already has more tackles than any other linebacker currently in the Hall of Fame, and there's no question in my mind that Canton is Thomas' ultimate destination, no matter how many more seasons he chooses to play.

The reason that Zach is continuously overlooked in the public eye for more high-profiled linebackers like Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher is largely due to his low-key personality and his incredible consistency. It seems like unless you are doing something to personally draw attention to yourself, the media and critics just don't care to pay attention to eye-popping performances year in and year out.

Sports Illustrated recently wrote that, "If you keep banging out great seasons with none standing out more than any other, who's going to notice?"

That quote was referencing Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs, but it may as well have been about Zach.

But like any great player, Thomas is much more than just his on-field production. He has the kind of character that ever athlete should aspire to.

Zach is the personification of heart.

For the past decade-plus, he has been the backbone of the Miami defense, and despite being overshadowed by the similarly great Jason Taylor, Zach has happily accepted his role as the "everyman" who plays like anything but.

Through intense physical pain and the even more intense agony that accompanies repeated losing seasons, Zach just quietly gritted his teeth and got his job done, even if the rest of the team was letting him down.

To succeed as Zach did, while almost the entire team collapsed around him, is amazing. A lot of players would simply have thrown in the towel as well, thinking it a useless cause to expend the energy towards a futile objective.

And that is what separates Zach from most other NFL players - his heart and his desire are unmatched.

I wanted to see Thomas finish out his career as a Dolphin, but that is not to be. He wants to continue playing, and I wish him the very best of luck wherever he may end up (even if he does go to New England). Whoever ends up signing him is going to be getting a gem of a player.

Of course, if there was any doubt as to where Thomas' true loyalties lie, he made it clear in his parting statement: "I am healthy and look forward to playing in 2008, but I will always consider myself a Miami Dolphin."

That is class.

Zach, you'll always have a special place in our hearts and minds. Thank you so very much for everything you've given to us as fans and to the Miami Dolphins franchise. You truly will be missed.

Phins to release Zach Thomas

This is truly sad news to me.

The Miami Dolphins are going to release Zach Thomas.

Zach is my favorite active player and second behind only Dan Marino. I can see the reason behind this move, but I do not agree with it.

I'll have more on this later.

Sad, sad day for Dolphins fans.

After first purge, what did we lose?

The reasonable thing to ask after this first purge of the roster is what exactly did we lose, if anything, and were the right decisions made.

In every case (with a slight exception or two) the answer is 'yes.'

The Dolphins have entered a new phase - one of accepted rebuilding. Tony Sparano knows that. Bill Parcells knows that. The prospect of rebuilding can no longer simply be brushed aside and covered up, as older and excessively priced players are held onto to give the promise of a winning team. That strategy has led directly the depths of a 1-15 season.

This offseason, the Dolphins will need to adopt a set of guidelines that they should follow no matter what. These guidelines are based around the premise that the team is 2-3 seasons away from contending again for a playoff spot. I honestly believe that Parcells and Ireland can get this ship turned around with two good offseasons, but I'll tack on a third as added insurance.

Thus, given that timeline for contention, any player who won't be able to help out once that period has elapsed should not be considered as a potential Dolphin.

Does that mean that older Dolphins like Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor should now be considered useless to this team. Absolutely not. Both of those guys still can and are (despite Thomas' concussion) playing at All-Star levels. They haven't shown many signs of slowing down, if any. Essentially, it must be asked whether a player will be able to perform at a high enough level two years down the road in order to help this team compete in the playoffs. In the case of stars like Thomas and Taylor, I think the answer is yes. In terms of an old player like Keith Traylor, I think the answer is a definite 'no.'

The key for any move the Dolphins make this offseason is how it affects the future of the team.

Given that line of thinking, let's look at the nine players who were cut and see what their loss means to the team:

1. QB Trent Green
Green is now coming off two consecutive concussion-marred seasons. That fact cannot be overlooked. There are still some concerns about his doctors fully clearing him to play. Also, by the time the 2008 season begins, he will be 38 years old. An ancient QB with serious concussion issues is not the kind of player that Miami should be holding onto as a starter or backup - especially with the exorbitant $3.6 million amount he'd count against the cap in '08. The Dolphins can't compete with or without him playing this season, and he'll be into his 40's by the time they are in a position to reach the playoffs. All that being said, the team and Green have a mutual interest in rejoining each other, albeit at a much reduced salary. And this, I think, would not be a bad idea at all. Isn't that contradictory to what I just wrote, you might be asking? Well, no, because I would only want him to come back to the Dolphins if he would accept being the third-string QB. It was obvious that John Beck had a very comfortable relationship with Trent, and I think he benefited from having that guidance in his rookie season. Having him around for another year would be a good thing for Beck as he continues his development. It would at least provide him with some sense of continuity in the face of all the other coaching upheavals. As the third QB, there would be only a very slim chance that Green would ever have to take the field, so his role would essentially be as a second QB coach - one who already has a foundation built with Beck. If he'll accept a large pay cut and the position of third QB, I'm all for bringing Green back for at least one more year. If he can help in Beck's development, then that will essentially be helping the team in the long term.

2. WR Marty Booker
Booker can still be of service to some team in the league, but only a team that is already playoff-caliber. At times in Miami, it seemed to me that he was totally unfocused on the game. Hell, he wasn't happy to be traded here in the first place. There was absolutely no reason to keep him around for another season. Not only will he be 32 years next season, but his base salary of $4.3 million is so far out of line with his production that it's not even funny. Those are the kind of contracts that this team cannot bear any longer. If you need further proof that Booker is of no use to this team now or long-term, I need only point out that he caught only 47.6% of his passes last season, dropping 7, and only recording 11.1 yards per reception. His Yd/Rec numbers have been steadily decreasing since 2005. With Booker out of the picture, the path will be cleared for guys like Ted Ginn and Derek Hagan to step up and continue to develop for the future.

3. RT L.J. Shelton
Shelton is another player like Booker who can still probably be of service to a contending team that needs only a few pieces. He can certainly still play at a slightly above-average level, and he is the kind of huge body (6'6", 345 lbs.) that Parcells loves, which is one reason why this move surprised me the most out of them all. Since Shelton played so well at guard in 2006 and struggled at times at tackle in 2007, I was hoping that the team would keep him and slide him over to LG to replace Chris Liwienski. At RT in 2007, Shelton gave up a whopping 7.5 sacks compared to only 2 sacks at RG in 2006. He's a durable player, having started every game over the past 3 seasons. However, the biggest knock against Shelton, as far as Miami is concerned, is his age. He will be 32 years old next season, and while he might be of use in the short term, I can't see him being valuable to the team in 2 years time.

4. DT Keith Traylor
Keith Traylor was born in the 1960s. That should be enough reason to cut ties with him. Even though he possesses the size and skills of a true nose-tackle which are hard players to find, his body is breaking down. There is no point in retaining a guy who hardly practices and can only play on about 25 snaps per game. Traylor very well might retire, but if he wants to keep playing, a rebuilding team like Miami doesn't have any space for him.

So those were the four veteran starters to be let go. Here are the five other guys who got the boot:

5. T Anthony Alabi
Alabi is an athletic player, but he's had health issues throughout his time with Miami, and there comes a time when a project player becomes a failed project player. He had three years here and never started a game. It's time to start a new project.

6. T Marion Dukes
Dukes came to training camp with the Dolphins last year as an undrafted college free agent, but after a few months with the team, he decided to return to Clemson to finish his degree and become an assistant coach on the football team there. Miami retained his rights for the year, so cutting him now is just a formality.

7. T Joe Toledo
Miami spent a fourth-round draft pick on Toledo in 2006, and he has been an injury-laden disappointment. He simply can't stay healthy enough to take the field. Why waste the roster space and money on a guy like that, no matter what his potential might be? You can only realize potential if you get on the field.

8. DT Marquay Love
This guy came to camp this year as an undrafted college free agent who played on the offensive line. He was switched halfway through camp to defensive tackle, and I was shocked that he even made the squad. He's barely a practice squad level player.

9. DT Anthony Bryant
Another guy with the prototypical nose-tackle build who simply lacks the skills to be a solid player.

So there you have it. A lot of dead weight got trimmed off, clearing significant cap space, which will allow Miami to go after some young and promising free agents come March.

9 players cut

Miami became the first team to start dropping the axe this offseason. The team cut nine players, four of whom were starters in 2007.

Those players are:

• QB Trent Green
• WR Marty Booker
• DT Keith Traylor
• RT L.J. Shelton
• T Anthony Alabi
• T Joe Toledo
• T Marion Dukes
  
• DT Anthony Bryant
• DT Marquay Love

I'll be back later to post my thoughts on these guys getting cut.

Statistical Analysis of Rodgers D-Lines

Rounding out my analysis of some of the new coaches that Miami has added, today I'm going to look at new defensive line coach Kacy Rodgers. Rodgers was the defensive line coach in Dallas from 2005-07.

Again, I'll be using the stats provided by Football Outsiders.

As a short primer on the stats used:

"Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, and situation, and normalized so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. Defensive line stats (more accurately, defensive front seven stats) represent the performance of offensive lines against each defense, adjusted for the quality of offensive opponents. More info on ALY can be seen here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

• RB Yards: Yards per carry by running backs against this defense, according to standard NFL numbers.
• 10+ Yards: Percentage of rushing yards against this team more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat. Teams are ranked from smallest number of 10+ Yards (#1) to largest number of 10+ Yards (#32).
• Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks. Teams are ranked from lowest power success percentage allowed (#1) to highest power success percentage allowed (#32).
• Stuffed: Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down. Ranked from most stuffs (#1) to fewest stuffs (#32).

As far as pass rushing, teams are ranked according to adjusted sack rate, which gives sacks per pass attempt adjusted for opponent, down, and distance."

Here are the numbers:

	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	10+ Yards	10+ Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	Sack Rank	Sacks	Adj. Sack Rate
2005 Cowboys	4.63 (30th)	4.16	74%	27	12%	3	24%	22	12	39	7.3%
2006 Cowboys	4.37 (20th)	3.81	60%	10	11%	3	26%	11	12	34	6.5%
2007 Cowboys	3.93 (8th)	4.01	67%	21	19%	22	28%	7	4	46	7.8%
2007 Dolphins	4.57 (31st)	4.58	70%	24	18%	19	20%	28	8	30	7.3%

From 2005-06, the numbers put up by Dallas' defensive line were emblematic of a 3-4 defense (The Cowboys installed the 3-4 in 2005, the year of Rodgers' promotion to defensive line coach). The units' Adj. Line Yards ranks were low (30th and 20th), but their 10+ ranks were very high (3rd both years). This means that Dallas' defensive lines, in general, were letting opposing runners get past them and into the second level, where the linebackers and secondary succeeded at bringing the runners down before breaking long runs. That is generally the pattern of 3-4 defenses, since there are only three down lineman who are charged more with taking up blockers and funneling the runners into certain lanes where the linebackers can come up and make the play. So in that sense, despite the low Adj. Line Yard numbers, these defensive lines were doing a relatively good job.

However, in 2007, the pattern was reversed, with the defensive line posting a great Adj. Line Yards but a poor 10+ percentage. That's more a mark of poor secondary/linebacker help mixed with good defensive line play. As far as I know, the scheme in Dallas remained the same this year, so I'm not sure what would lead to a discrepancy in numbers like this.

As far as the running game goes, Rodgers' defensive line units improved over the course of his three years in the Stuffed % category. What wasn't a very effective "stuffing" unit, turned into a very good one by 2007, stuffing the run on 28% of the plays.

Whereas Dallas' success against the run was rather inconsistent, Rodgers' D-lines have been consistently above-average when rushing the QB. His Dallas lines never ranked lower than 12th in Adj. Sack Rates. Amazingly, Miami ranked 8th in that category last season, so Rodgers has a solid foundation to build on. He also average approximately 40 sacks in his three years as D-line coach.

Overall, Rodgers' experience with Dallas shows that he is quite a capable coach. He was able to improve the unit over the years in most categories, and his pass rushing successes are notable. Given that he is only 38 years old, he should still have plenty of room to improve and tweak his methods with Miami.