Analysis of Bonamego ST Units

Yesterday I looked at the statistical success of Dan Henning's past gigs as an offensive coordinator.

Today, I wanted to do the same for our new Special Teams coordinator, John Bonamego.

I've organized a chart using the special teams metrics provided by Football Outsiders.

According to FO:

"[These stats list] an estimate of how many points, compared to league average, each team receives from the five elements of special teams: field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, punt returns. The total is then converted into a DVOA percentage so that it can be added in to offense and defense to create total team DVOA.

Field goal rating compares each field goal to the league-average percentage of field goals from that distance. Yards of field position from the other four elements of special teams are translated into points using a method that gives each yard line a point value based on the average next score an NFL offense is worth from that point on the field. Punts, punt returns, and kickoffs are based on net yardage. Kickoff returns are judged on return yardage only.

All special teams numbers are adjusted for weather/altitude based on stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week.

WEIGHTED S.T. DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season."

The numbers in parentheses are the overall NFL ranks for those particular categories. Remember, that the higher the VAR number, the more consistent that unit was from week to week.

Full explanations of the FO stats can be found here.

I have included the numbers for Miami's 2007 squad as a point of comparison.

Here you go:

	ST DVOA	Weighted ST	FG/XP	Kick	Kick Ret	Punt	Punt Ret	VAR
2002 Jaguars	-1.3% (18)	0.1% (16)	-10.9	-5.1	-3.9	8.5	3.6	0.9% (22)
2003 Packers	1.9% (10)	1.2% (13)	7.4	-2.1	6.8	1.5	-2.6	0.4% (30)
2004 Packers	0.9% (14)	0.4% (15)	5.0	0.0	1.2	-1.2	0.4	0.4% (31)
2005 Packers	-3.8% (30)	-4.0% (31)	-8.7	-3.1	-12.1	-6.2	7.9	0.7% (21)
2006 Saints	0.7% (14)	-0.4% (21)	2.7	0.4	-3.3	6.3	-1.9	0.6% (27)
2007 Saints	-3.9% (26)	-2.4% (22)	-5.3	-1.7	-7.5	-4.2	-4.2	1.0% (27)
2007 Dolphins	-2.7% (22)	-2.6% (23)	5.3	-18.6	-1.0	-1.4	0.1	1.0% (26)

The first thing that strikes me about these numbers is how consistent Bonamego gets his special teams units to play. His ST units have been some of the most consistent in the league for the past 5 years.

That's a good thing that is made better by the fact that his units are typically above average. His 2005 season was pretty bad, and his Saints unit slipped in '07, but in his four other seasons, he has fielded solid ST units.

It's also very interesting to look at the improvements that Bonamego has made in his first year with a new team:

• In 2001, the Jaguars ranked 21st in DVOA. Bonamego brought them up to 18th in 2002.
  
• In 2002, the Packers ranked 25th in DVOA. Bonamego vaulted them to 10th in 2003.
  
• In 2005, the Saints ranked 24th in DVOA. Bonamego brought them up to 14th in 2006.

Judging by that trend, Miami can probably expect to have a top-half ST unit in 2008.

One other thing that stands out about these numbers - Miami posted a disgusting -18.6 in the Kick category. That was the worst in the league last year. Clearly, Jay Feely is a big liability in the kickoff/field position game, and that obviously hurt the team last year. I'd be interested in seeing Brandon Fields get a chance to try kickoffs this offseason. He has had some experience doing that before, and with his powerful leg, he may be a better option to kickoff than Feely.

Hopefully that's something that Bonamego will look at. In any case, these numbers are an encouraging sign for the improvement of the ST units in 2008.

CB Joey Thomas signed

Today, Miami signed CB Joey Thomas.

Most recently, Thomas was with the Cowboys this season during training camp, but was cut before the season began.

Thomas (6'1", 190 lbs.) hasn't seen any game action since 2005. He is 27 years old. He was a third-round draft pick of the Green Bay Packers in 2004. He played college football at Montana State.

Here are his career stats:
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			Tackles					Interceptions
Year	Team	G	Total	Solo	Ast	Sck	SFTY	PDef	Int	TDs	Yds	Avg	Lng
2005	New Orleans Saints	5	1	0	1	0.0	--	0	--	--	--	0.0	--
2005	Green Bay Packers	6	14	11	3	0.0	--	3	--	--	--	0.0	--
2004	Green Bay Packers	14	19	18	1	0.0	--	1	--	--	--	0.0	--
TOTAL		25	34	29	5	0.0	0	4	0	0	0	--	0

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Analysis of Henning's Offenses

I wanted to take a look at how our new offensive coordinator Dan Henning has fared in the recent past during his stint with the Carolina Panthers.

I've organized this chart using the excellent statistics provided by Football Outsiders.

The stat DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. According to FO:

"DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on 3rd-and-4 are worth more than five yards on 1st-and-10 and much more than five yards on 3rd-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback."

The longer, full explanation of the stat can be found here.

"WEIGHTED OFFENSE is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season. VARIANCE (VAR.) measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance on offense. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance)."

The numbers in parentheses are the overall NFL ranks for those particular categories. Remember, that in the VAR stat a rank of 32 means that the offense was the most consistent in the league.

I included that numbers for both the Panthers and Dolphins in 2007 in order to show how the Panthers fared the year after Henning left the team and how Miami's numbers last year compare to Henning's years in Carolina.

	Offense DVOA	Weighted Offense	Pass Off.	Pass Rank	Rush Off.	Rush Rank	VAR
2002 Panthers	-22.9% (31)	-30.3% (30)	-24.2%	29	-21.5%	31	8.6% (7)
2003 Panthers	-7.2% (18)	-7.1% (17)	-6.5%	18	-7.8%	20	3.2% (30)
2004 Panthers	0.8% (13)	3.7% (13)	9.7%	11	-9.8%	25	3.4% (31)
2005 Panthers	-3.2% (15)	-4.3% (16)	11.4%	10	-16.5%	27	6.5% (16)
2006 Panthers	-4.2% (19)	-5.6% (20)	-2.2%	17	-6.7%	19	4.9% (25)
2007 Panthers (w/o Henning)	-15.2% (27)	-19.3% (31)	-18.9%	29	-10.9%	24	7.6% (14)
2007 Dolphins (w/Cameron)	-8.8% (23)	-14.5% (27)	-14.3%	26	-2.1%	13	6.9% (15)

Wow. I was unimpressed with Henning before doing this research, and I am even more unimpressed now. For a guy who likes to run the ball so much, he has never really been successful at doing it. Granted, I realize that personnel affects how well you can execute your schemes, but it's not like Henning is going to be inheriting a wealth of talent in Miami.

Looking at these numbers, Henning had a horrible year in his first year with the Panthers. To be fair, the offense was just as atrocious the year before he arrived. The offense improved over the next two years, but it never approached a top-ten unit, even with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith on the roster.

The numbers show that he always had a better pass offense than rush offense, and his rush offenses border on terrible. Even though his offenses have been relatively consistent, it seems that they have been consistently underwhelming.

These numbers do not bode well for Miami in 2008, but hopefully Tony Sparano will be able to add something to the mix in an attempt to reshape this offense.

Perfectville: Population Still 1

Wow.

That had to be the greatest Super Bowl I've ever watched. And not only because of the sweet, sweet outcome. It was a great game the whole way through.

There has been a lot of debate in the wake of this game as to how the 2007 Patriots will be remembered.

There is really only one way that they could be remembered - as absolute and utter failures.

There is simply no other way to describe the outcome of this season for them. 18-0 means absolutely nothing in light of the fact that they were whipped around by the Giants.

The higher you go, the harder the fall is going to be, and you cannot climb higher before a fall than reaching 18-0 and then plunging to your death at 18-1.

This was the biggest upset in all of NFL history. And I am very tempted to call it the biggest upset in sports history outright.

A perfect mark in the NFL is the gold standard for performance in sports. No other NFL team has ever looked as dominant as the Patriots did this season.

And then the Super Bowl came, and the Pats folded up quicker than a wet napkin.

Their season was a complete failure. They will forever be known as complete failures.

And of course, in the wake of this outcome, Mercury Morris looks like the genius. After all, no one gave any credence to his repeated words of caution: You aren't undefeated until you win them all.

Well, the 1972 Dolphins remain as the only team to ever accomplish that monumental feat. Congratulations guys.

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Henning hired as OC

After failing to land Pete Carmichael Jr. from the Saints, Miami has settled with hiring Dan Henning to be the new Offensive Coordinator.

Henning, 65, was out of football last year. His last job was in 2006 as the OC of the Carolina Panthers.

It is presumed that Henning will call the offensive plays, leaving head coach Tony Sparano to focus on the wider aspects of running the team.

Henning's offensive style is a mostly conservative approach, often utilizing two tight end sets and grinding it out with the running game. When he does pass, he likes to throw it deep. That philosophy lines up very well with Sparano's tendencies.

Here is Henning's coaching history:

• 1968-70: Florida State, quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator
• 1971: Virginia Tech, offensive coordinator
• 1972: Houston Oilers, quarterbacks coach/receivers coach
• 1973: Virginia Tech, offensive coordinator
• 1974-75: Florida State, quarterbacks coach/receivers coach
• 1976-78: New York Jets, quarterbacks coach/receivers coach
• 1979-80: Miami Dolphins, quarterbacks coach/receivers coach
• 1981-82: Washington Redskins, offensive coordinator
• 1983-86: Atlanta Falcons, head coach
• 1987-88: Washington Redskins, offensive coordinator
• 1989-91: San Diego Chargers, head coach
• 1992-93: Detroit Lions, offensive coordinator
• 1994-96: Boston College, head coach
• 1997: Buffalo Bills, offensive coordinator
• 1998-00: New York Jets, quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator ('00)
• 2002-06: Carolina Panthers, offensive coordinator
  

Roth arrested

Unfortunately, even though Miami can be proud of someone like Jason Taylor (see post below), there are other guys who aren't thinking about their actions and are raising questions as to their character strength.

On Friday night, DE Matt Roth was arrested in Iowa City for public intoxication. He spent five hours in jail after refusing to leave the bar he was at. He had been kicked out of the bar earlier in the night, but later returned.

Today, Roth pleaded not guilty to the charges and he will go to trial on March 13.

Even though this is a relatively minor offense, it's not the first time that Roth has been in legal trouble. If Roth is planning on sticking around under the new regime, he had better shape up.

Taylor wins award

Even though the 1-15 Miami Dolphins finished so far out of contention that the Super Bowl seems like some kind of imaginary event, there was one Dolphin proudly representing the franchise at the league's premier event.

Before the game began, Jason Taylor was named the Walter Payton Man of the Year.

This award is the NFL's only one that recognizes both on-field excellence as well as off-field service to the community.

According to the team's official site:

"Taylor, the Dolphins’ all-time career sack leader and six-time Pro Bowl selection, established the Jason Taylor Foundation (JTF) in 2004 with a mission of creating programs that assist South Florida’s children in need by focusing on improved health care, education and quality of life. In 2007, the JTF contributed nearly $320,000 to numerous programs and organizations dedicated to assisting young people, and launched the ‘Jason Taylor Reading Room’ in Miramar, Fla., an after-school program designed to address illiteracy among inner-city youth. Taylor also contributed $50,000 to the Holtz Children’s Hospital in Miami to support the ‘Jason Taylor Children’s Learning Center,’ a recreational and educational hub for hospitalized children."

In this day and age, when the character of players is of the utmost importance, it is important to take the time to recognize and appreciate the fact that the Dolphins have one of the greatest on-field/off-field players in the league.

Thank you, Jason Taylor.