Long selected to Pro Bowl; Crowder to IR; practice squad update

To no one's surprise, Jake Long has been selected to this year's Pro Bowl.

He is Miami's only representative on the roster, but that could change as players get hurt or substitutions have to be made for the Super Bowl participants.

FB Lousaka Polite was probably snubbed, as LeRon McClain was selected over him, but otherwise there was no other clear cut position where Miami should have had another representative.

In other news, Channing Crowder has been placed on Injured Reserve with a foot injury, ending his season. Some people have speculated that he may have suffered a Lisfranc fracture similar to the injury sustained by Ronnie Brown this year. We won't know for sure until the swelling goes down and doctors are able to get a more accurate scan.

Also, the Dolphins adjusted their practice squad last week, cutting G Mark Lewis and signing P Britton Colquitt. But today, the Broncos signed Colquitt to their active roster off the Dolphins' practice squad, leaving an open space to fill.

The move was a bit strange since Brandon Fields has been playing pretty well and there haven't been any reports of a possible injury. Perhaps the team wanted to see how strong Colquitt's kickoff leg is?

Anyway, Miami is now left with an open roster spot on the 53-man roster, as well as one on the practice squad.

Week 16 vs. Texans Prediction

Like last week, let's get right into this week's prediction post with an email from a reader:

If I remember correctly the Dolphins have a losing record against the Texans. Which is the better offense? Which is the better defense? What do the Dolphins need to do to win?

You're right that the Dolphins have a losing record against the Texans. In fact, Miami has never beaten them in the four times the two teams have been matched up with one another.

Miami will need to get their first win against this franchise if they want to entertain any slim playoff hopes past this weekend.

As far as offenses go, while Miami's offense is decent, Houston's can be quite scary at times - when they aren't turning the ball over. And Houston's offense does turn the ball over a lot. They are 24th in the NFL when it comes to turnovers per drive, at 0.164. Of course, Miami is not that much better, sitting at 0.154 TOs/drive.

Houston's offense is also incredibly one-dimensional. Their passing offense has a ridiculously good 43.7% DVOA, while their rushing offense is an abysmal -12.3% DVOA. But that passing attack is so lethal that it can make up for the rushing deficiencies. So I would say that Houston has the better overall offense, but Miami's ground attack is stronger than Houston's.

As far as defenses go, both teams have a very similar DVOA - Miami at 3.8% and Houston at 5.4%. But if you look at Weighted DVOA, which discounts earlier games as less important to current success, you'll see that Houston's defense is playing slightly better than Miami's - 3.6% for Miami compared to -1.4% for Houston. (Remember, when it comes to defense, negative DVOA is better). Houston's defense has a particular deficiency defending against the pass, while they are decent at stopping the run. The Texans pass defense struggles most noticeably against opposing teams #1 and #2 WRs in addition to tight ends. Surprisingly, they are also the best defense in the league at defending running backs in the passing game.

In the end, I'd give the slightest edge to Houston's defense.

In order to win this game, Miami will have to do two things. 1) Run a pass-oriented offense. They can't let Chad Henne's copious amount of interceptions in recent weeks deter them from going after Houston's glaring weakness on defense. And 2) The offense needs to reverse its habit of turning the ball over so frequently.

I'm torn on how this game will turn out, but I'm ultimately picking the Texans to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 9-5.

Last week's loss to the Titans slashed Miami's playoff chances to 8.9%

Practice squad update: McCaskill out, Feinga in

Last week, Miami made an alteration to its practice squad, releasing the recently signed T Nevin McCaskill and replacing him with G Ray Feinga.

Feinga (6'4, 337) was an undrafted free agent out of BYU this year. He spent time in the offseason with the Rams and Chargers.

Here's a draft analysis of Feinga from SI:

Feinga has been a solid lineman at BYU and displays skill in pass protection or as a run blocker. He possesses enticing size and will get consideration in the middle rounds from a power running team.

And here's one from NFL.com:

A highly recruited prep star who turned down the likes of Southern California, Notre Dame and Oregon to play at Brigham Young, Feinga leaves BYU as a two-time first-team All-MWC pick at left guard and a potential middle-round pick. Blessed with great size, surprising balance and long arms, Feinga is more consistent in pass protection than as a run blocker, though he lacks the lateral quickness to fit in every NFL offense. Had an arm span of 33 1/2 inches and a hand span of 10 inches at the combine.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

• WR Julius Pruit
• TE John Nalbone
• RB Tristan Davis
• LB J.D. Folsom
• S Nate Ness
• G/C Mark Lewis
• WR Taurus Johnson
• G Ray Feinga
  

Week 15 @ Titans Prediction

Let's get right into talking about the Titans with an email from a reader:

How do you rate the Titans' offense and defense? With Haynesworth with the Redskins will it be easier for the Dolphins offense to move the ball?

Miami and Tennessee are similar in that for both teams, their offenses are their strengths and their defenses are their weakness, although not to quite the same degree.

Tennesse's offense, while not elite, is an above average unit, due primarily to a runner in Chris Johnson who is simply phenomenal. Their passing attack is not nearly as dangerous, although it has been getting better with the insertion of Vince Young back into the lineup. But Young and WR Nate Washington will be playing with injuries, which might slow down the passing game even more. The Titans offense presents itself in such a way that Miami will likely have to take its chances and bring 8 or 9 guys into the box almost at all times in order to contain Johnson and spy Young.

The Titans defense, on the other hand, is bad. Their pass defense is downright awful, while their run defense is merely below average. And missing out on Albert Haynesworth has definitely played a role in this defense's downfall. But Miami's game plan shouldn't be to rely on the run. I think they should once again go into the game planning to use a pass-heavy offense with a complementary ground game. Tennessee is one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposing tight ends, as evidenced by their 31.8% DVOA (31st in the league) in that area. Miami should look to exploit that glaring weakness and get Anthony Fasano and Joey Haynos heavily involved in the offense this week.

Both Miami and Tennessee started off the season very poorly and have only recently begun to play their best football. The Titans have completely erased the stench of their 0-6 start and are a dangerous matchup for the Dolphins. The game may turn into a shootout, but I think Miami will somehow pull it out in the end.

I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 9-4.

Last week's win over the Jaguars boosted Miami's playoff chances to 27%

Week 14 @Jaguars Prediction

One week Miami loses to a team that is far inferior; the next week they beat a team that was seemingly far superior than they.

It's all culminated in the Dolphins standing at 6-6, with a quarter of the season left to play, and the playoff picture in the AFC a cloudy mess. Both the AFC East division title and a wildcard spot are still very much in play for Miami.

Of course, the margin for error is almost nonexistent. There's a good chance Miami will need to win out in order to advance to the postseason.

And up first in that quest is the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are a strange case because they have a winning record (7-5) but the numbers don't indicate that they are a very good team. Most strikingly, the Jaguars have actually been outscored by 48 points over the course of the season, yet still have a winning record. Their offense is certainly capable, led by MJD, but they will likely be without up-and-coming WR Mike Sims-Walker who is doubtful with an injury.

Also doubtful for the Jaguars is DT John Henderson and CB Rashean Mathis. That will definitely hurt an already below average defense. Miami's offense should not have issues scoring points in this game. So it will likely come down to Miami's defense stepping up and containing MJD and David Garrard.

I'd also like to mention that just as I was about to eat some crow regarding Jake Grove, I must politely renege. One of my main gripes was his inescapable injury history, and it is taking its toll once again. This will be the third straight game that Grove will miss (actually more like three and a half if you count the time he missed in the Panthers game). This team is paying out the wazoo for a guy they had to know would miss significant time with injury troubles. And if they chose to overlook that, then shame on them.

Regardless, I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 8-4.

Last week's win over the Patriots boosted Miami's playoff chances to 22.9%

2009 Pass Defense Review (Part 3)

Yesterday, I looked at how Miami's special teams coverage players have fared through three quarters of the season. Today, I turn my attention to the pass defense statistics.

Below, I've created a table of every player who has recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense. Take a look:

	Scks	QH	INT	PD
Jason Allen				1
Will Allen		2	2	6
Charlie Anderson	1
Ryan Baker	0.5	1
Yeremiah Bell	1.5	1	1	6
Channing Crowder	1	2	1	2
Tyrone Culver			1	4
Vontae Davis			3	8
Jason Ferguson				1
Nathan Jones			2	8
Kendall Langford	1.5	3
Tony McDaniel	1.5	2		1
Phillip Merling	2.5	4		2
Joey Porter	7	11		1
Sean Smith				11
Paul Soliai				1
Randy Starks	6	13
Jason Taylor	6	6	1	4
Reggie Torbor		2	1	4
Cameron Wake	4.5	8
Gibril Wilson	1	3		6
TOTAL	34	58	10	62

Well, the good news is that Channing Crowder finally got on the board with some plays. Akin Ayodele, however, remains conspicuously absent as he is the only regular defensive player missing from the list.

Joey Porter has stepped it up over the past quarter-season, more than doubling his half-season sack and quarterback hit totals from 2.5 to 7 and 5 to 11, respectively. Much of that has to do with being healthy enough to play, of course.

Randy Starks is continuing his monster season, leading all players with a combined 19 sacks and QHs.

In the secondary, this team is not forcing enough turnovers. Sean Smith, for all his purported ball-hawking skills, has yet to get an interception (or a sack or QH for that matter).

Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 Part 3)

With 12 games in the books, the Dolphins are 75% of the way through the season. And so it's time once again to take a look at how the special teams coverage guys are stacking up in terms of tackles.

In just four games since the last coverage review I did, Nathan Jones has recorded 7 special teams tackles. He now has a whopping 17 on the season, and a forced fumble on coverage as well. This is pretty incredible since last year he recorded 9 STTs all season, and Miami's top tacklers on coverage in 2008 (Jason Allen and Patrick Cobbs) recorded 16 each on the season. Jones has surpassed those numbers in just 12 games. He's simply a beast covering kicks right now. In fact, he seems to have taken over Jason Allen's role as the top coverage guy.

Lex Hilliard and Tyrone Culver are also making their impacts felt, with 12 and 11 STTs respectively.

Here's how all the players stack up according to special teams tackles:

	Tkl	Ast	Comb	FF
Jason Allen	7	1	8
Charlie Anderson	7	2	9
Akin Ayodele	1		1
Dan Carpenter	1	1	2
Chris Clemons	4	1	5
Patrick Cobbs	1		1
Tyrone Culver	8	3	11
Vontae Davis	4		4
John Denney	6	1	7
Brandon Fields	1		1
J.D. Folsom	1		1
Brian Hartline	4		4
Joey Haynos		1	1
Lex Hilliard	10	2	12
Nathan Jones	13	4	17	1
Reggie Torbor	7	2	9
Cameron Wake	5	2	7
Erik Walden	6	1	7
Gibril Wilson	3		3

Murtha to IR, Oglesby re-signed; practice squad update

A flurry of roster moves have happened over the past few days.

First, TE David Martin, who was on injured reserve, was released by the team. I'm not really sure of the reasoning behind this move. Perhaps Martin felt he was back to full strength and wanted a chance to sign with some other team.

T Lydon Murtha, who was claimed off Detroit's practice squad in October, has been placed on IR with an ankle injury that he sustained in practice on Wednesday.

Taking his place is CB Evan Oglesby, who was on Miami's roster for four days last month.

The Dolphins also tweaked its practice squad, releasing CB Will Billingsley and signing T Nevin McCaskill.

McCaskill (6'4, 315) is 25 years old. He was an undrafted free agent out of Hampton in 2007. He has spent time with the Bills, Eagles, Jets, and Packers. He was on the Packers' active roster for the final three games in 2008. He can play both guard and tackle.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

• WR Julius Pruit
• TE John Nalbone
• RB Tristan Davis
• LB J.D. Folsom
• S Nate Ness
• G/C Mark Lewis
• WR Taurus Johnson
• T Nevin McCaskill
  

Week 13 vs. Patriots Recap

Wins against the Patriots are always the sweetest aren't they?

Of course, it does sting a little bit knowing that Miami should not have lost to Buffalo the week before, and if they hadn't, the Dolphins would be leading the AFC East right now. Oh well, they made their bed and now they have to sleep in it - which likely means winning out if they want to make the playoffs.

But let's get back to Sunday's excellent win over the Pats:

• I, for one, thought the game was over once New England went ahead 14-0 like it was nothing. Kudos to this team for not giving up. Because for a moment there it looked like they might have just been throwing the towel in on the season.
• Chad Henne has made a lot of strides since he took over the reigns of this offense, but the one that may be most noticeable has only started to happen over the last three weeks or so, and that is his awareness in the pocket and his avoidance of sacks. This offense can't afford negative plays, so limiting the number of sacks he takes has really helped.
• That being said, he needs to work on his accuracy and touch. His sub-60% completion rate is not good enough. And missing those wide open throws to Fasano and Polite could have been killer. He also needs to do a better job of finding throwing lanes to avoid having his passes batted at the line rather than hoping a lane will emerge for him.
• See everyone, good things will happen when you feature the pass in your offense. Hopefully we see more of this strategy moving forward.
• Channing Crowder finally made an impact play. Of course, it was about the easiest interception he could have had, but still, at this point no one is complaining. Also, Cameron Wake's first step on that play was ridiculous. That boy has some burst.
• Jake Long is realllllyyy lucky the refs didn't call his false start on the fourth down play that Miami converted near the end of the fourth quarter.
• Sean Smith is really struggling. I've pointed out his embarrassing lack of physicality seemingly every week, and it was on display again, as he whiffed on several tackles, including one on Welker that almost resulted in a first down if not for some help defenders coming to save the day. And of course, the 81-yard TD to Sam Aiken was just horrible. Not only didn't he get his head around to spot the ball, choosing instead to just blindly hold up an arm (while possible jumping negative inches) but then he put no effort into bringing Aiken down once he had the ball. Smith was supposed to have such good ball skills, but he seems unable to get his head turned around to make a play on the ball, so he usually just keeps running downfield and puts a hand up. And for a 6'4 guy to get outjumped is pretty bad, but Smith doesn't seem to want to leave the ground to make a play. He really needs to step his game up - I know he has it in him.
• Bess, Camarillo, and Hartline ran some excellent routes in this game. And Hartline is becoming something of a redzone technician - the type of guy Patrick Turner is supposed to be.
• If the team is going to keep trotting Pat White out there, let him throw the damn ball!
• Congrats to the defense for finally stepping up in the fourth quarter. I think they realized it might be better in some situations like that to only rush 3 or 4 guys and drop the rest in coverage. If nothing else, it prevents the big play and keeps the team alive to fight another down.
  

Losing to the Bills and then beating the Pats....

Week 13 vs. Patriots Prediction

With the Pats losing last Monday to the Saints, the Dolphins really missed out on crucial opportunity to make the stakes for this week's game the division lead when they lost to the Bills. Now, they have to win just to say alive for the wildcard spot.

New England is obviously a much better team than they showed against the Saints, and no one should expect them to play so poorly two weeks in a row.

As usual, New England will score its points, especially against Miami's porous defense. The key will be to get a turnover or two in the midst of the scoring to at least give the offense a chance to catch up.

I just don't think the Dolphins will be able to pull off the upset, and if that's the case, their playoff chances are probably shot.

I'm picking the Patriots to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 8-3.

Miami's playoff chances currently stand at 10.4%

Taurus Johnson added to practice squad

Rookie WR Taurus Johnson was added to Miami's practice squad on Wednesday, filling the spot vacated by Ryan Baker's promotion to the active roster.

Taurus (6'0, 206) was a four-year player from the University of South Florida. He went undrafted but spent training camp with the Chiefs and was later signed to the Lions' practice squad before being cut.

Here are a couple scouting reports on Johnson.

From SI,

Johnson has shown flashes of ability the past three years, yet he has never taken his game to the next level, even when afforded the opportunity. He offers potential as a fourth or fifth receiver at the next level.

And from NFL.com,

It's very fitting that a player named Taurus plays for the USF Bulls. Johnson has flashed playmaking ability throughout his career, averaging 36 catches for 466 yards and four scores over the past three seasons. Although he has been inconsistent and will not be confused for a track star anytime soon, Johnson's has been QB Matt Groethe's go-to receiver. His size, hands, quick feet and kick return experience make him a potential No. 3 receiver and special teams contributor at the next level.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

• CB Will Billingsley
• WR Julius Pruit
• TE John Nalbone
• RB Tristan Davis
• LB J.D. Folsom
• S Nate Ness
• G/C Mark Lewis
• WR Taurus Johnson