Phinaticism

2010-05-31T22:15:00.000-04:00

Draft Day 2 Recap

2010-04-27T22:06:00.002-04:00

On Day 2 of the Draft, Miami selected two players, OLB Koa Misi (40th overall) and G John Jerry (73rd overall).

Here are some scouting reports on each:

Koa Misi

From Draft Countdown:

A bit of a 'tweener who could project to either defensive end in a 4-3 or outside linebacker in a 3-4 at the next level --- Saw action at both end and tackle in college and was also used standing up at times --- Missed some time with a back injury in 2009 --- Didn't rack up eye-popping statistics or necessarily make a lot of game-changing plays but is a very intriguing prospect due to his impressive physical tools --- Classic Workout Warrior who will likely be selected earlier than he should be by some team that becomes infatuated with his potential.

From SI:

Misi is a solid prospect who's consistently improved his game over the past three seasons. He offers a good amount of upside potential and should eventually develop into starter at the next level.

John Jerry

From Draft Countdown:

Saw action at both right tackle and guard during his college career but will probably fit best inside at the next level --- A prototypical mauler with rare size who should excel in a power offense.

From SI:

Jerry is a powerful offensive lineman whose size and style are best suited to play in a small area. Could eventually develop into a starting guard if he improves and blocks more consistently with sound mechanics.

Here's my take. I like both these picks because Miami didn't have to reach to fill a need. They stayed put and a couple really talented guys fell to them. Misi, in particular, should start from day one opposite Cameron Wake. That would be quite the pass rushing duo. Of course, it will leave lots to be desired when it comes to defending the run (and possibly the pass), but I find it hard to believe that Misi will be as heinous in run defense as Joey Porter was. And here's Parcells' chance to work his magic on a young OLB. If he really is as good at picking these guys out as we are led to believe, then Misi should pan out just fine.

As for Jerry, I don't like the situation that caused Miami to take him, but given that situation, he makes for a good pick. The situation I'm referring to is, of course, the Justin Smiley situation. It baffles me that this front office has told him to stay home from offseason workouts while they attempt to trade him. And barring a trade (which is made all the more unlikely now that other teams know Miami doesn't want him) the Dolphins may very well just cut him. And let's remember that this is a guy who is one of the best guards in the league. Yes, he has significant injury concerns, but if that's the sole reason why Miami is going to cut ties with him, then hell, get rid of Jake Grove's beat up body while you're at it. It's hypocritical and it makes no sense.

But because Smiley will in all likelihood not be returning to the team, along with the fact that Donald Thomas took a step backward this past year, Miami needed to search for another option at guard. The ironic thing is that Jerry seems an awful lot like Donald Thomas only with much more collegiate experience. He's a perfect fit for the power offense that Miami employed last year, but isn't (or shouldn't) this team be transitioning more toward a passing offense? Hopefully this coaching staff will get him to improve in that area because he may also be starting from day one.

Dolphins trade down, take DT Jared Odrick

2010-04-23T00:08:00.001-04:00

Heading into tonight's action, my ideal draft involved just two actions: 1) trade down and 2) avoid taking a running back and/or Tim Tebow.

Great Success!

Before we get into an analysis of Jared Odrick, let's first take a look at the trade that Miami made with the Chargers to move down in the first round.

Miami gave up the 12th, 110th (4th round), and 173rd (6th round) picks. In return, Miami received the 28th, 40th (2nd round), and 126th (4th round) picks as well as LB Tim Dobbins. Removing Dobbins from the equation for a moment, let's tabulate the values of each set of picks according to Football Outsiders' Actual Draft Value Chart.

The three picks that Miami gave up are worth 3288 points. The three picks they received are worth 4130 points. Now add in Dobbins, and it's quite clear that Miami absolutely hoodwinked the Chargers in this deal, so good work Parcells and Ireland.

Now, onto Odrick.

A lot of Miami fans are already bitching and moaning about this pick because it isn't sexy and it doesn't fill a perceived need. I think a large part of that has to do with fans locking into the mindset that they would be getting a certain type of player at 12 (I'm talking about Derrick Morgan or Earl Thomas) rather than a lower-tier player at 28. And despite the amazing value they received in the trade, when it came time to actually make the pick, fans were not happy with the chosen player because he's not as good as who they could have had at 12. But the fact of the matter is that Miami is still a team with a lot of holes, and they desperately needed a new second round pick after trading theirs away for Brandon Marshall.

Many fans are also supremely hypocritical. They preach "best player available" right up until the moment that Jared Odrick's name is called instead of Jerry Hughes'. BPA is only convenient for these people as long as the best player available happens to also play a position of need.

Well, guess what, the good teams are the ones who don't reach for needs. And quite honestly, when it came time for Miami to pick at 28, there was only one player available who in my estimation is better than Odrick and that's Sergio Kindle. Would I have liked to see Miami take Kindle there? Sure, but the difference between the two is negligible and it's no surprise that Miami would rate Odrick higher on their draft board. And who knows, they may have a crack at Kindle at pick 40.

So, yes, Miami did draft a player at a position of seeming strength, what with Randy Starks, Kendall Langford, and Phillip Merling all on the roster. But it can't hurt to add to your strengths, especially at DE in a 3-4 defense.

Odrick is a strong all-around player. He played defensive tackle in a 4-3 at Penn State, but since Miami plays primarily in a 3-4, he will likely be bumped outside. While he says he can play nose tackle, I don't think Miami wants to go down that road just yet. Although drafting Odrick may be a sign that Miami could begin to move back towards a hybrid style 3-4/4-3 defense with more four man fronts than we've seen in the past few years. When Miami uses a four man front, it would allow them to kick Odrick and Starks inside. (Using more four man fronts would also lessen the blow of being without Jason Ferguson for half the season.)

Odrick's biggest strengths are his motor, his run-stopping ability, and his ability to collapse the pocket. He's not an elite pass rusher and will need to work on shedding blocks. Here's NFL.com's analysis of him:

Odrick has a good combination of size and strength. He is more of a run-stopper with power to hold the point but needs to utilize his hands more consistently to separate to the ball. Odrick shows power to collapse the pocket as a pass rusher but again needs to expand his pass rush package with more moves and counters to contribute at the next level. He feels pad pressure well and constricts running lanes effectively. He has some limitations (lateral agility and speed) but plays with a good motor and often wins with effort. Odrick could be considered a versatile prospect as an end in a 3-4 front or tackle in 4-3 schemes. Odrick has upside if he can improve his overall technique at the next level.

He seems to have a lot of similarities with Langford and Merling, which makes me wonder if this pick isn't an indictment of Merling's progress. Remember, he was picked at #32 in 2008, so if the coaching staff is already moving on that's not a good sign. Hopefully it just means that the d-line rotation has gotten even stronger and deeper.

In summary, this was not an exciting pick. But not every good pick is exciting. And reaching for needs is rarely a good idea since a need today may not be one tomorrow, and the needs two or three years down the road are even hazier. It's imperative to think long term if you plan to be competitive over the long term, and that is what this pick represents.

How the Dolphins should approach this draft

2010-04-22T17:30:00.005-04:00

One of the things I do before every draft is look over the roster and pick out those positions that the team should absolutely stay away from using a draft pick on - or, at the very least, a high draft pick.

Obviously, a middle of the road team like the Dolphins won't have a lot of those positions but they do have some.

In my estimation the positions that Miami should not spend a draft pick on in this year's draft are kicker, punter, quarterback, fullback, and running back.

So what does that mean, specifically as it relates to the first round? STAY THE HELL AWAY FROM C.J. SPILLER, JAVHID BEST, RYAN MATTHEWS, AND TIM TEBOW!!!!

If Miami spends a draft pick on any one of those guys, it will be an absolute waste. This team does not need more running backs. If Ronnie and/or Ricky don't come back next year, so be it. It's damn easy to find replacements in the draft, even late in the draft. And as for Tebow, I just hate most everything about him, including his awful release and his grating religious fanatic personality.

It's really not that hard. Just stay away from those four guys (and, really, any RB before the sixth round) and the chances of having a good draft vastly improve. It would also help if the team was able to unload Tyler Thigpen for any kind of draft considerations.

My ideal draft would see Miami trade down in round one (possibly with the Eagles?) in order to recoup a pick in the second round. Then with their new first pick, select an OLB like Sergio Kindle.

If Miami is stuck at 12, I'd be happy with either Derrick Morgan or Kindle although I don't think either is worth quite that much. Still, it would be better than really reaching for someone like Dan Williams or Earl Thomas. Those guys are good players, but they are huge reaches at 12.

[Note: It should also be mentioned that the draft classes of Parcells/Ireland always have a strong correlation with the list of players that they brought in for visits, worked out, or just interviewed. Not all teams are like this, but in Miami's case, it is rare to see a guy get drafted who did not have some sort of contact with the team in the months leading up to this event. So take a look at this tremendous list of most of the guys who have had such contact with the team. It's likely that a majority of the guys added over the next three days will be on that list.]

Skolnick hits it on the head regarding Jason Taylor

2010-04-22T14:25:00.004-04:00

So Jason Taylor chose not to wait until after the Draft to make up his mind concerning his football future. Can you blame him?

The Dolphins royally screwed the pooch on this one. When it comes right down to it, I'm not as ashamed about the ultimate decision the team made to part ways with Jason but rather with the manner in which they went about doing so. It would appear that this new regime simply has no idea how to treat important players. Important both on the field and in a larger sense, to the fan base. You can't go yanking these guys around and expect to come off clean in the eyes of the fans, who quite honestly love the Jason Taylors a lot more than the Jeff Irelands.

Ethan Skolnick made a very nice point:

And if you do blame Taylor, think of it this way….

If you aren’t interested in a girl anymore, and she then starts dating a guy you can’t stand, would you be angry about it?

Or this way….

If your current employer let your contract expire, and the only available job was at the rival company, would you stay unemployed?

No one in their right mind would willfully choose to stay unemployed in that situation simply as a matter of principle. Why would anyone expect Taylor to? If he wants to keep playing, no one can tell him to retire just because the Dolphins have no more use for him; it doesn't work that way.

Hopefully, when the Jets come to Miami this year, the crowd will do what's right and give Jason a thunderous welcome home.

2010 Schedule Released

2010-04-21T00:00:00.000-04:00

The league announced the complete 2010 schedule today.

Here's how Miami's slate of games looks:

1	Sun., Sept. 12	at Buffalo Bills	CBS	1:00 p.m.
2	Sun., Sept. 19	at Minnesota Vikings	CBS	1:00 p.m.
3	Sun., Sept. 26	NEW YORK JETS	NBC	8:20 p.m.
4	Mon., Oct 4	NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	ESPN	8:30 p.m.
	BYE WEEK
6	Sun., Oct. 17	at Green Bay Packers	CBS	1:00 p.m.
7	Sun., Oct. 24	PITTSBURGH STEELERS	CBS	1:00 p.m.
8	Sun., Oct. 31	at Cincinnati Bengals	CBS	1:00 p.m.
9	Sun., Nov. 7	at Baltimore Ravens	CBS	1:00 p.m.
10	Sun., Nov. 14	TENNESSEE TITANS	CBS	1:00 p.m.
11	Thurs., Nov. 18	CHICAGO BEARS	NFLN	8:20 p.m.
12	Sun., Nov. 28	at Oakland Raiders	CBS	4:05 p.m.
13	Sun., Dec. 5	CLEVELAND BROWNS	CBS	1:00 p.m.
14	Sun., Dec. 12	at New York Jets	CBS	4:15 p.m.
15	Sun., Dec. 19	BUFFALO BILLS	CBS	1:00 p.m.
16	Sun., Dec. 26	DETROIT LIONS	FOX	1:00 p.m.
17	Sun., Jan. 2	at New England Patriots	CBS	1:00 p.m

A few thoughts:

I really don't see how anyone could complain about this schedule. It seems eminently fair to me.
Gotta love opening against Buffalo. Never mind that it's on the road. That's a game that, if Miami is to be believed as a legitimate playoff team, they must take.
The bye is a bit early, and it's odd that Miami will have already played half of its division games by Week 5.
But man oh man are those two early prime time division games tasty or what?! The Jets and Patriots at home in consecutive weeks in front of a national audience! The Dolphins are going to have a prime opportunity to make a statement right out of the gates. (Oh yeah, and Santonio Holmes will be suspended for that first game against Miami.)
I doubt he'll get an eight game suspension, but if he does, Miami would miss facing off against Ben Roethlisberger as well.
The last two months of the season really seem to have some pretty winnable games. Hopefully they won't have fallen into a hole, but if they have, Miami will have a good opportunity to get back in the thick of things come November.

Reader Questions: Jason Taylor, Ronnie Brown, Draft

2010-04-19T00:00:00.000-04:00

A lot could, and will, happen this week in Dolphins land, so let's get into some of the biggest issues currently facing the team.

The Jason Taylor saga continues this year. Do you think he will be playing for the hated Jets this year? How likely is it that the Dolphins will actually trade Ronnie Brown? If the Dolphins were able to trade down with their first pick would that be a good thing? If they trade down it is likely Eric Berry and Earl Thomas would be gone if they picked in the 20s.

Let's take these one by one:

Jason Taylor
I get that the Dolphins want to wait until after the Draft before addressing Taylor's future with the team. However, I don't understand their apparent unwillingness to simply reach out to him and let him know where they stand. He's earned more than a cursory "We'll get back to you."

And even though every report has him eventually signing with the Jets, I just can't see it. I believe he genuinely does hate that franchise. All that stuff he's said about them and their fans over the years - I really think that came from the heart and wasn't made up just to get a headline. There's a reason he's not wearing a Jets jersey right now. He's had plenty of time to decide if that's where he'll end up and he's still not there - even after the fancy multiple day free agent visit, even after every insider said a contract was all but finished. Jason knows he wants to play in Miami this year and only in Miami. He's going to wait as long as it takes for them to bring him back even though it erases all his leverage. If they say wait until after the Draft, well then that's what he's going to do.

Of course, what if they don't sign him after the Draft, then what? Even though Miami is the only team he wants to play for this year, that relationship requires the participation of both sides. If Miami doesn't make some kind of commitment to him soon after the Draft, then I would not be shocked to see him in New York. But until that happens, I still see him eventually returning to Miami.

And that's a no-brainer for the Dolphins (or at least it should be). They only need to make a two-year contract offer to him. He won't command a giant salary, and this is an uncapped year anyway, so the salary doesn't matter for the first year. And after getting rid of Joey Porter and Matt Roth, what else does Miami have. Sure, Cameron Wake should probably start this year and they might draft a new OLB in the first round, but the cupboard is still bare behind that. Quentin Moses and Charlie Anderson are not better than Taylor, and they each have pretty much maxed out their potential. Either or both of them might not even make the final roster depending on who Miami drafts. Taylor, on the other hand, is still a weapon, and was probably Miami's most consistent LB last year. If they can transition him to a pass-rushing only role, that would probably keep him fresher throughout the season and let him focus on what he does best.

Ronnie Brown
I don't think it's likely that Miami trades Ronnie Brown only because I doubt any team is willing to pay the price it would be required to get him, which I peg as around a second round draft pick in this year's draft.

The team should definitely be exploring all trade avenues with him though. I love the guy, but he's a 28 year old running back who is hurt all the time. And repeat it with me now: Running backs are so ridiculously interchangeable that if Miami can get good value for Brown, they should jump on it. Miami can survive without Brown, and this front office could really use a second round pick in this draft now that they've traded their away for Brandon Marshall.

And think about it - how many more elite years do you really expect Miami to get out of Brown. Two, three at most? If they keep him with his one-year tender offer this year, that would leave him with one or two good years left. They shouldn't be signing this guy to a long term deal starting in 2011. So why not get something useful for him now before his trade value is all but gone?

The Draft
Before the Marshall trade, I would have been against trading down, provided one thing - that Dez Bryant was still on the board when Miami was picking at #12. I really wanted them to take him. But now they don't need him as much and it became a lot more likely that Denver will take him anyway.

Now, however, I think Miami absolutely has to trade down, except, again, for one exception; if S Eric Berry somehow falls to #12, Miami should take him and smile all the way to podium to hand in that card with his name on it. Berry is a top 3 talent in this draft and if he miraculously falls to Miami's pick, then they have to pounce on it. Otherwise, there will be no player available that fits Miami's specific needs that will also represent good value at that spot.

Rolando McClain would have been worth that pick, but with Karlos Dansby on board (and Crowder) it would be tough to justify that pick, even though McClain will be far better than Crowder. Earl Thomas fills a need at safety, but #12 is way way way too high to be picking him. Ditto for NT Dan Williams. Miami can't afford to reach with this pick. There will also be a bevy of DE/OLBs to choose from (Derrick Morgan, Sergio Kindle, Sean Weatherspoon, Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham) but I still think the 12th spot is too high for any one of them.

Trading down, even just two or three spots, would be a tremendous help, as it would likely net the Dolphins an additional pick in the second or third round. And the 12th spot is not a bad place to be when it comes to trading down. You avoid paying out a huge contract that goes along with a top 10 pick, and the team trading up will have its pick of an elite talent in a very deep draft. So if Miami wants to trade down, they should have some takers.

Rumors are already making that rounds that the Eagles are one team that wants to trade up into Miami's spot in order to take a safety. The thinking goes that the Eagles would package their first round pick (24th overall) with their first second round pick (37th) to move up to #12. That trade would be an absolute steal for Miami according to Football Outsider's Actual Draft Value Chart. The 12th overall pick is worth 2665 points. The 24th and 37th picks are worth a combined 4020 points. Even if they were to give us their original second round pick (55th overall) that deal would still be well worth it. I really hope that is what transpires on Thursday.

GINN GONE!

2010-04-17T00:20:00.004-04:00

Sorry, the title of this post is not meant to be celebratory; rather it's a play on Mike Tirico's call when Ginn broke a long return in college.

Anyways, Miami traded Ted Ginn to the 49ers for a fifth-round draft pick in this year's draft (#145 overall).

It's actually not bad value for him when you consider the type of player he's turned out to be. I would have liked to see Miami keep him around for him return abilities, but it still would have been hard to keep him active on game days so at least they were able to get something for him.

It's funny, looking back now on the post I wrote in the aftermath of the 2007 draft. Here's a quote:

Drafting Ted Ginn was the best move this team could have made - and that's not just spin.

Of course, I was operating under the flawed assumption that the ultimate decision came down to only two players - Ginn and Brady Quinn. If that actually were the case, then yes, Miami made the right decision. But we know that's not the case and that Patrick Willis was there for the taking. So....yeah.

At least I was rational enough about the situation to realize after Ginn's first two seasons that he was never going to be an elite receiver. Just read the comments to the article I wrote for The Phinsider talking about readjusting our expectations for Ginn. Almost no one was willing to take off their blinders and give up the notion of Ginn becoming a No.1 WR.

Of course, once he actually proved that this season, everyone was suddenly fine with trading him. It's amazing how many people have to be led, step by step, to these conclusions that should be obvious with any kind of critical foresight. It seems like the vast majority of Dolphins fans simply will not accept negative outcomes as possible until after they've already manifested themselves.

Anyways, with the trade for Brandon Marshall and the trading of Ginn, here's an updated look at Miami's stock of draft picks:

Round 1, (12th overall)
Round 3, (73)
Round 4, (110)
Round 5, (145, from San Fransisco)
Round 6, (173, from Kansas City)
Round 6, (174, from Washington)
Round 6, (179)
Round 7, (212, from Kansas City)
Round 7, (219)
Round 7, (252, compensatory)

Evaluating the Brandon Marshall trade

2010-04-14T19:39:00.005-04:00

So Miami decided to get its No.1 WR through trade, ponying up two second round draft picks (one this year, one next year) to get Brandon Marshall from the Broncos. This came after Marshall signed his one-year tender offer with the Broncos. He will make $2.5 million in 2010. Miami signed him to a four-year extension worth $47.5 million, with $24 million of that guaranteed. All in all, Marshall's new deal with Miami works out to a five year $50 million contract.

So here are my thoughts on this trade:

I hate the timing of this deal. Let me start off by saying that I really, really, really wanted Miami to draft Dez Bryant with their first round pick. I think he will be every bit as good as Marshall and probably better. I think he will be less of a headcase than Marshall has already proven to be. I know he's younger. And I know he's cheaper. So knowing all that, why wouldn't the Dolphins wait until the first night of the draft, see if Bryant was available at #12, draft him if he was, and if not, that would be the appropriate time to make this deal.
This deal only solidifies my thoughts that Bill Parcells has absolutely no confidence in his own ability to properly assess a first-round WR talent. Picking wide receivers in the first couple rounds of the draft has been anathema to Parcells throughout his career. He either can't or stubbornly won't do it, and that is a detriment to every team for which he presides over the draft. He is fabulous at identifying college linemen and linebacker prospects. When it comes to skill positions, it appears he is clueless. No team can take the next step without being able to groom their own skill position players. And if the cost of not being able to do just that was ever in doubt, look no further than the $5o million/two second round pick price tag that Miami just forked over for Marshall.
I do like the fact that this acquisition finally allows Miami's other receivers to be slotted correctly on the depth chart. Brian Hartline should take over as the starting wideout opposite Marshall and Davone Bess will be able to work as just the slot receiver. Greg Camarillo will be able to slide down to the fourth spot where he will make an excellent possession receiver.
Can there be any doubt now that the coaching staff has lost hope for Patrick Turner? What a waste of a third round pick. Another example of Parcells blowing it with an early WR pick.
I'd rather see the team get rid of Turner than trade Ted Ginn. Ginn at least could still have value to this squad. Now that Miami finally has a dominant force at WR, Ginn's downfield skills can be fully unleashed. At the very least, Ginn would be the fourth or fifth WR, he'd see about 10-15 snaps a game solely as a downfield burner, and the team would retain his tremendous kick return abilities.
In case you're wondering, the two second round picks (assuming that next year's pick falls in the middle of the round) are worth approximately the 20th or 21st pick in the first round of this year's draft, according to Football Outsider's adjusted draft value chart. That, in addition to his enormous contract, is a tremendously steep price to pay for a player who is one incident away from being suspended for a very long time.

Now let's get into the stats.

Marshall led the league in dropped passes in 2007, tied for fourth most in 2008, and tied for third most last season. AKA, he drops a lot of balls.

Take a look at his yards per reception over the last three seasons: 13.0 in 2007, 12.2 in 2008, 11.0 in 2009. His yards have similarly declined: 1325, 1266, 1127.

Take a look at his last three seasons' DVOA numbers: -1.6% in 2007, -6.7% in 2008, 2.3% in 2009. He coupled that with DYARs of 148, 85, and 179. Decent enough, but hardly superstar level numbers. Then consider the fact that Marshall posted a -25.1% DVOA in the red zone last year and scored in only two of the final 12 games of the season (against Kansas City and Cleveland no less).

Basically, the metrics and his extremely troubled history leave me seriously questioning this move. I love the fact that Miami finally has a legitimate No.1 option, which helps the other WRs and Chad Henne, but it comes with the highest risk possible and a huge investment of both picks and money. I don't see how Dez Bryant wasn't the better option.

Oh yeah, just watch this video. I took pride in the fact that before this offseason, Miami pretty much had a bunch of guys you could feel good rooting for. Well, with Richie Incognito and Brandon Marshall now in the fold, that's no longer the case.

Dolphins awarded compensatory draft pick

2010-03-23T22:50:00.002-04:00

The 2010 compensatory draft picks were announced yesterday and Miami was awarded a seventh rounder, #252 overall.

Miami now has 10 draft picks.

Here is the team's full allotment of picks:

Round 1, (12th overall)
Round 2, (43)
Round 3, (73)
Round 4, (110)
Round 6, (173, from Kansas City)
Round 6, (174, from Washington)
Round 6, (179)
Round 7, (212, from Kansas City)
Round 7, (219)
Round 7, (252, compensatory)

Miami's fifth round pick was traded to Kansas City for Tyler Thigpen.

Ronnie Brown gets busted for DUI

2010-03-23T21:41:00.003-04:00

The arrests, they just keep on comin' don't they?

Ronnie Brown was charged with driving under the influence this weekend in his hometown of Cartersville, Georgia.

Apparently, he was pulled over for failing to signal when changing lanes. He then performed poorly on a field sobriety test.

He is scheduled to appear in court on May 13.

Since this is Brown's first run-in with the law, I doubt he'll face any kind of suspension. Still, it was an incredibly stupid thing to do.

All three ERFAs re-signed

2010-03-23T21:32:00.002-04:00

Exclusive Rights Free Agents are hardly free agents. They have no leeway to negotiate or talk with other teams so their only choices are to re-sign with their team or sit out the year - and that's obviously not going to happen.

So it's no surprise that Miami's three ERFAs - Davone Bess, Dan Carpenter, and Joey Haynos - all re-signed with the Dolphins on one-year contracts.

Bess and Carpenter are pretty much locks to make the roster this season. Haynos will have to battle for his spot in training camp.

Richie Incognito signed

2010-03-18T11:06:00.002-04:00

After bringing G Richie Incognito in for a visit on Monday, the Dolphins sealed the deal by signing him to a contract on Wednesday.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Miami pursued him since they put a waiver claim in for him last season when he was released midseason by the Rams. But the Bills had a worse record so their waiver claim won out.

Incognito is well known for his oftentimes idiotic play, marked by numerous personal foul penalties. As Football Outsiders Almanac so eloquently put it, his "existence seems dedicated to defying his last name through acts of embarrassing petulance."

There's no doubt this move carries with it some level of risk. Until he proves otherwise, Incognito is always a threat to destroy a drive with a flagrant penalty, and he's been known to yell at his coaches.

Still, the Dolphins only gave him a one-year contract at a paltry salary of just over $1 million. Even if he meets all the incentives in his deal, the value would still only top out at $1.3 million. If things don't work out, he can very easily get cut.

He does have some level of talent and he doesn't turn 27 until July, so he should be peaking. The coaches will probably have him compete with Donald Thomas and Nate Garner for the starting right guard spot. Incognito also has experience playing center and tackle. My question, though, is what does this say about the coaches' belief in the ability of Thomas and/or Garner? Does this signing mean they aren't progressing as the coaches would like? We'll have to wait until training camp to find out about that.

Second Annual Top 5 Prospects List

2010-03-17T00:08:00.002-04:00

Around this time last year, I compiled my first Dolphins' Top 5 Prospects List. I made it in order to see how well the team was set up for the future in terms of rising young players on cheap contracts.

Last year's list was Tyrone Culver, Andy Alleman, Brandon London, Cameron Wake, and Donald Thomas. London is really the only guy on there that I missed on (and, truthfully, I was basing my selection of him on his ability to put on and maintain weight). Alleman was good enough to net the team a not-insignificant fifth-round draft pick in this year's draft.

To be considered for this list, a player must meet the following criteria (borrowed from Football Outsiders Almanac definition of a prospect):

Drafted or signed in 2007 or later
Drafted no earlier than round three
Less than five career games started
Still on a free agent contract or their original contract

So let's check out my list for 2010:

5. RB Lex Hilliard
Running back is the most fungible position in football, and Miami had to call on its deep reserves in 2009, after injuries to Ronnie Brown and Patrick Cobbs. That left Hilliard, a sixth-round pick of the Dolphins in 2008, to assume the primary backup duties behind Ricky Williams. Miami was able to call on Lex because they opted to keep a fourth RB on the roster to start the season. With Brown and Cobbs returning from injury this offseason, Hilliard may once again get shoved down the depth chart, but the RB situation for 2011 is completely up in the air at the moment since Brown's contract ends after this year and Ricky very well may retire. If Hilliard can stick on the roster for another year, his opportunities might explode in 2011. He impressed with the limited number of opportunities he had (169 offensive snaps). He hit the hole with authority and gained yards after contact at a rate better than Ricky and on par with Ronnie. He particularly impressed me with his receiving output (93.7% DVOA!), which I had believed to be a weakness of his coming out of college. He was also a key contributor on special teams, finishing with 14 tackles, third most on the team. With Lex on the team, there's absolutely no reason to draft a RB this year and it's very easy to envision him splitting the load with another runner come 2011.

4. S Chris Clemons
With the release of Gibril Wilson and the inability to sign either Antrel Rolle or Ryan Clark, Miami's free safety position would currently be filled by Chris Clemons or Tyrone Culver. And honestly, I'm fine with that. Sure, I'd like to see the team draft another safety to compete for the spot, but probably not in one of the first two rounds of the draft. I don't get why so many people are so worried about possibly starting Clemons this year. This is what happens on good teams! They draft guys who go on to start for them within a few years time. You have to put your faith in prospect development sometimes. Not every hole is always going to be filled by a first-rounder or a big free agent. When Miami drafted Clemons in the fifth round last year, I thought it was a great pick because he represented good value in that spot and showed future starting potential. It's not like he's completely raw either; he started for three years in college, playing 51 games (so he's very durable) and he was already called on to start for Miami twice in his rookie year. Now obviously, he didn't wow anyone in his limited chances, but the coaches must have seen something in him they trusted and liked. Another offseason should sharpen up some of his coverage skills and we all know about his blazing speed. Development also takes more than just years of waiting; it takes actual game experience. If you want a long-term starting free safety you've got to give young guys like Clemons real game opportunities to sink or swim. Personally, I think Clemons could handle the job this year.

3. TE John Nalbone
After a year in which the tight ends played magnificently (2008), they came crashing down to earth in a fiery wreck last year. Anthony Fasano seems like the only TE lock to make the team right now, so John Nalbone, a fifth round pick last year, will have every opportunity to make the team in a significant role this season. Nalbone is a complete tight end, meaning that he can both catch and block well. Those kind of TEs are tough to find and are very valuable. I wasn't too shocked that he spent most of last season on Miami's practice squad. After all, he was entering the NFL out of Monmouth, a small school, and that jump to the NFL level is huge and would take some time. He should be well acclimated entering this offseason, and I see no reason why he can't challenge Joey Haynos and Kory Sperry to be Miami's second string TE. Nalbone has future starting potential, and depending on how he performs this season, could be setting himself up to start in 2011 if the team decides to move on from Fasano.

2. WR Brian Hartline
Hartline was the second of two WRs drafted by Miami last year, but he ended up far outplaying Patrick Turner who was taken a round ahead of him. Hartline was very likely the best WR on the Dolphins last year. He is a stat-geeks' dream, too. In the past I've talked a lot about WR body types and how certain Body Mass Index/height relationships indicate whether a WR has a chance to be elite or not. Hartline's body type happens to fall into the "Slight" elite category. The one thing everyone noticed about Turner was his size, but that doesn't mean he has an elite body. Hartline's got one, and it showed up in his rookie season. He saw only 407 offensive snaps, but led the team with three TDs, showed an immediate chemistry with Chad Henne, and posted a fantastic 16.3 yards per catch average. His advanced stats were also off the charts; he had 156 DYAR (30th in NFL) and a 21.8% DVOA (10th in NFL). No one expects Hartline to be anything more than a solid number three WR but I think that's severely selling him short. This guy could be a true surprise player. I'm not saying I would be comfortable with him as the team's long-term No. 1 wideout, but if the season started today, he would be my top WR.

1. OLB Cameron Wake
Two years in a row on this list, whoo! Wake qualifies for the list because he was signed by Miami after 2007, even though he came out for the draft in 2006. Actually, I wish Wake weren't on this list because it would've meant the coaches finally gave him more playing time (and more starts). I realize that he still needs a lot of work setting the edge and stopping the run as well as working in coverage. But I guarantee he would do those two things just as well as Joey Porter supposedly did them last season. And at this stage of their careers, Wake is probably the better pass rusher. So why can't he start for this defense? The bottom line is that Wake was an absolute monster in his limited playing time this past season. According to ProFootballFocus, if Wake had played even 25% of Miami's defensive snaps, he would have been the third best 3-4 OLB in the NFL. Obviously, we're talking a small sample size here (just 167 defensive snaps), but that mistake falls on the coaching staff. Wake should have been playing a hell of a lot more last season. He finished fourth on the team in sacks and third in QB hits in just a fraction of the snaps. He also had 20 QB pressures - as many as Jason Taylor. Even if he's not a complete player at this point, he needs to be starting, or at least heavily rotating. He's already 28 years old, so the team doesn't have forever to coach him up. We all saw how disruptive he can be; now it's time to unleash that to its full potential.

Phins re-sign Ferguson

2010-03-13T16:42:00.002-05:00

Despite a looming eight game suspension to start the year and an ongoing rehab for a serious quadriceps injury, the Dolphins have decided to re-sign NT Jason Ferguson.

Ferguson hopes to be healthy by training camp, and despite the suspension, he will still be allowed to take place in all offseason activities including training camp and preseason games.

While I can't condone breaking the performance enhancing substances policies, I don't see a problem with bringing Jason back after he's served his suspension. Although not having him for the first half of the season will definitely alter Miami's approach to the draft. Had Ferguson been available from the start of the season, the team may have tried to push off drafting a new nose tackle until next year. Now, with only Paul Soliai left as a true NT, Miami will have to address that need in the draft.

And should Miami be in contention after 8 weeks, getting Jason back will really bolster the defensive line depth.

Jason Ferguson suspended 8 games

2010-03-08T00:09:00.000-05:00

In what could be a blow to Miami's offseason plans, free agent NT Jason Ferguson has been suspended by the NFL for eight games due to a violation of the performance enhancing drug program.

This is his second violation of the program. He was suspended for four games back in 1999.

Ferguson had said that he would either retire this offseason or play for the Dolphins. And Miami certainly could use him for another year. But this suspension could affect either his decision to retire or Miami's decision to bring him back.

Regardless of what Miami does in the draft, it will probably still be wise to re-sign Ferguson. Even though he'll only be available for the second half of the season, his presence should be a boost. Miami could also choose to pursue a different free agent instead, like Jamal Williams.

Karlos Dansby signs with Miami; other free agent moves

2010-03-05T23:14:00.003-05:00

Miami was able to land one of the biggest names on the free agent market, at a position of critical need.

They are expected to finish signing LB Karlos Dansby to a five year deal worth roughly $43 million by tomorrow. The deal will likely include $22 million in guaranteed money. That may be a lot of money, but it's a fair market deal. I don't think the team is really overpaying him, especially since this year is uncapped so it really doesn't matter how much he's paid this season.

The Dolphins were also able to re-sign Chad Pennington on a one year, $2.5 million deal. He will get an additional $1.515 million if he's traded.

To clear room for Dansby and Pennington and their contracts, the team cut LB Joey Porter, S Gibril Wilson, and LB Akin Ayodele.

Dansby should slide right into Channing Crowder's role on the defense, while Crowder should assume Ayodele's duties.

Miami is now going to have to find some way to trade Tyler Thigpen because the team can't keep four QBs on the roster. It was idiotic to give away a fifth round pick for him last season and re-signing Pennington is just further proof of that. Hopefully the team can at least recoup some of its losses in this one.

Gibril Wilson to be released

2010-03-05T13:31:00.003-05:00

Chalk up another huge swing-and-a-miss for the Parcells/Ireland free agent acquisitions.

Gibril Wilson's agent, Alvin Keels, announced on Twitter today that the Dolphins will be releasing Wilson today.

Miami currently has Chris Clemons and Tyrone Culver on the roster as possible replacements, but his release probably means that the team is trying hard to land Antrel Rolle. But is that really a good thing? Rolle isn't that good of a cover safety and that's what this team needs at the free safety spot.

Sure, he may make a good number of big plays, but he's going to be giving up plenty of them as well. And isn't that what angered all of us so much about Wilson? Is paying a huge contract to another free safety who can't cover a smart idea?

I'd rather see Culver/Clemons/a rookie battle for the job.

Miami's RFAs get tendered

2010-03-03T21:25:00.002-05:00

When I wrote about how I would approach Miami's restricted free agents yesterday, I left off Ronnie Brown because I mistakenly thought that the team had or was going to pick up the option in his contract for this year. They did not and instead tendered him at the first-round level. At that level he will earn $3.97 million in 2010, assuming he is not traded and signs the tender. At that price, he's an absolute steal for one more year.

But I nailed the other two RFAs on the head.

The Dolphins tendered both TE Anthony Fasano and OLB Quentin Moses at original round levels, meaning they will both earn $1.18 million in 2010. If Fasano is traded, Miami will be compensated with a second round draft pick. If Moses is traded, Miami will get a third round draft pick.

What to do with Miami's free agents

2010-03-02T00:05:00.000-05:00

With free agency opening on Friday, Miami will have to make some decisions this week on how to approach their own players who have expiring contracts or who are restricted free agents.

Here's what I would do:

First off are the Exclusive-rights free agents - guys with 2 or fewer years whose contracts have expired. They don't really have a choice in accepting their tender since they can't negotiate with any other teams. Miami's ERFAs are Dan Carpenter, Davone Bess, and Joey Haynos. They should all be tendered and brought back.

Next up are the restricted free agents:

TE Anthony Fasano - Fasano had a horrible year in 2009, but he's still the best tight end on the team. He has to be brought back, but I don't think the team needs to tender him at the highest level. I think the first-round tender (as opposed to the first and third round tender) will be fine. And if any team really wants to part with a first round pick for him, then all the better. Of course, the team could also tender him at original pick compensation, which would only require a $1.176 million salary in 2010 and the team would get a second round pick if any other team signed him.
OLB Quentin Moses - Moses may not even make the team this year, but it won't hurt to slap the original pick tender on him and have him compete for a spot in camp. And remember, Moses was actually drafted in the third round, so if any team wants him that's the pick they'd have to give up.

And lastly, the unrestricted free agents:

QB Chad Pennington - I'm still hoping that Buffalo will trade for Tyler Thigpen, allowing Miami to bring back Pennington, but that's a long shot to ever happen. As it is, there's simply no room on the roster for Pennington, backup or not. Letting him go makes the most sense for Miami's young QBs to get more work. And it's important to remember that the more free agents Miami loses, the more likely they are to be awarded compensatory draft picks. Losing a player of Pennington's caliber will likely carry some weight in those decisions.
OLB Jason Taylor - He recently had shoulder surgery so Taylor may not be signed by anyone right away as teams wait to see how he recovers. But he played well last year and Miami really doesn't have much depth at OLB, so he really should be brought back on a two-year deal.
NT Jason Ferguson - Big Ferg's also recovering from an injury. He's likely to be healthy in time for the season and he said that if he decides to return to play in 2010 he only wants to play for Miami. And Miami needs him, whether they draft a top NT prospect or not. No rookie NT is going to come in and take over the nose position on a full-time basis right off the bat. Having Ferguson around for another year will really help out the D-line's depth.
CB Nathan Jones - This is a tricky one because Jones is still young, he was a decent nickel CB and he became the team's best special teams player this year after Patrick Cobbs went down with an injury. But now the team is stacked at CB with Vontae Davis, Sean Smith, and Will Allen. Will Allen will likely take over Jones' nickel role. And Jason Allen is capable enough to handle the fourth CB duties. So there's not really a role for him anymore. And with Cobbs returning, it's not as dire a need to keep him solely for special teams. The word is that Miami isn't planning on re-signing Jones and that's perfectly fine. He's been a solid player for the Dolphins but now the team can bring in another young defensive back to groom.

So that's it. I'd tender all the ERFAs and RFAs, I'd let go of Pennington and Jones, and I'd give one or two-year deals to Taylor and Ferguson.

Reader Question: 2011 RB situation

2010-02-23T22:44:00.002-05:00

I got a good reader question yesterday asking about Miami's potential 2011 running back situation.

With the return of Ronnie and Ricky questionable for the 2011 season, are Patrick Cobbs and Lex Hilliard capable replacements? How do you rate each player's ability?

That's a really interesting question for a lot of reasons.

First off, I should state right off the bat that I put very little stock in running backs in general. It is proven time and again how fungible they are and how easily a replacement can be found later on in the draft (this is why I am absolutely against drafting C.J. Spiller with the 12th pick). The important part is the offensive line and Miami already has that pretty well covered.

The areas where running backs can truly differentiate themselves from one another are in how well they run routes and catch the ball as well as how well they pass protect. Other important attributes that set guys apart are the ability to break tackles as well their health and durability.

So let's for a minute assume that neither Ronnie Brown nor Ricky Williams are with the Dolphins in 2011 (let's also assume that there is a season in 2011). There are four remaining RBs on Miami's current roster: Patrick Cobbs, Lex Hilliard, Kory Sheets, and Tristan Davis.

Cobbs is the most experienced of the bunch, but he's coming off a torn knee ligament, so it remains to be seen how that affects him when he gets back on the field. He never was the fastest guy so losing another step due to the injury could hurt. Even if he is back at 100% in 2011 though, Cobbs doesn't strike me as an every-down back. He's more of a third-down, jack-of-all trades type player - and he's been excellent in that role.

Lex Hilliard, on the other hand, has the build of an every-down back. He was expectedly average in his limited rushing opportunities this past year, but he impressed me with his receiving skills, which I wasn't sure he possessed. With another season of development under his belt, it's entirely possible that Hilliard could be in the mix for a much larger role in 2011. Granted, he would most likely be part of a committee, but that's a good thing.

Kory Sheets and Tristan Davis are both long shots to make the team this year, never mind in 2011, but with the positional uncertainty arising from Ronnie's contract situation and Ricky's pending retirement, anything is possible. Kory Sheets profiles as a third-down back, but I suppose it's possible he could be in line for a promotion if he manages to stick around. The same could be said for Davis. Both are finesse runners who excel at catching the football.

Of course, the most likely scenario in the event of losing both Brown and Williams would be to draft a running back (not in the first few rounds!) after next season and pair him with whoever is still on the roster.

Reviewing Preseason Projections: Running backs

2010-02-21T16:37:00.003-05:00

In my annual preseason roster breakdown, I included all of Football Outsiders' KUBIAK individual player projections.

It's always interesting to see how the system fares.

Today, I'll be looking at how they did with the running backs. With Ronnie Brown going down with an injury once again, the numbers will have to be scaled to reflect that.

But first, here are the original KUBIAK projections:

	Runs	Yds	Yd/R	TD	FUM	DVOA	Rec	Pass	Yds	Yd/C	TD	DVOA
R. Brown	238	1131	4.8	7	4	1.6%	38	46	260	6.8	1	12.4%
Williams	125	524	4.2	2	3	2.1%	15	23	151	10.1	0	22.1%
Cobbs	32	151	4.7	1	2	18.0%	11	20	109	9.9	0	12.3%

Patrick Cobbs only played in 5 games so his numbers can be thrown out.

Ronnie only played in 9 games, so let's scale his projected numbers to fit a 9 game season:

	Runs	Yds	Yd/R	TD	FUM	DVOA	Rec	Pass	Yds	Yd/C	TD	DVOA
R. Brown	134	636	4.8	4	2	1.6%	21	26	146	6.8	1	12.4%

And here are his actual numbers (along with Ricky's):

	Runs	Yds	Yd/R	TD	FUM	DVOA	Rec	Pass	Yds	Yd/C	TD	DVOA
R. Brown	147	648	4.4	8	1	14.4%	14	20	98	7.0	0	-2.1%
Williams	241	1121	4.7	11	5	9.0%	35	53	264	7.5	2	-10.3%

For Ronnie, whose role was known heading into the season, KUBIAK predicted his usage in the running game almost perfectly. However, it expected a better yards per carry average and fewer TDs. It also expected a much lower DVOA, which means Ronnie outplayed his prediction when it comes to rushing.

On the receiving end, however, Ronnie underperformed. He was thrown to less than expected, and he had a negative DVOA, when the system thought he would be pretty good in the receiving game. It did get his yards per catch right though.

So for a guy who missed almost half the season, I'd say KUBIAK did a pretty good job of predicting how Ronnie would be used in this offense.

Ricky, on the other hand, really couldn't be accurately predicted since he started (and received a majority of the carries) for all seven of the games that Ronnie missed. The KUBIAK projections were done with the assumption that both backs would play a full season together.

So his counting stats were way off. He more than doubled his projected yardage, almost doubled his projected carries, and scored five times as many projected TDs. But he also had much better rate stats (4.7 Y/C compared to 4.2 and 9.0% DVOA compared to 2.1%). He also caught the ball much more than expected, although he performed much worse catching the ball than predicted, finishing with a -10.3%.

Essentially, Ricky greatly outperformed his rushing projection but underperformed his receiving projection.

Dolphins strangely re-sign SirVincent Rogers

2010-02-21T16:30:00.002-05:00

You'd think that Parcells and Ireland would want no part of a player who quit the team during last year's training camp.

But apparently you'd be wrong.

In a strange move, the team re-signed T SirVincent Rogers.

Who knows what his reasons were for leaving or for coming back, but since he is back in the fold, let's hope he's serious about the commitment this time. And let's see how far he makes it in training camp.

Will Allen arrested for DUI

2010-02-21T16:20:00.002-05:00

Miami Dolphins players are having trouble with the law this offseason.

First, Tony McDaniel was arrested for misdemeanor battery, after his girlfriend accused him of pushing her to the pavement where she injured her head.

Now, CB Will Allen has been arrested on a DUI charge. Reports say that Allen was driving at 3:35 AM yesterday morning when he approached a police roadblock and detour. Instead of taking the detour, Allen drove right toward the roadblock and then stopped and revved his engine.

When the police made him roll down his window to talk to him, they smelled alcohol. Subsequent blood alcohol tests revealed that he had a BAC of .152 and .167, which is twice the legal limit.

If Allen is found guilty, he could face punishment under the league's substance abuse program.

Reader Question: QB situation

2010-02-15T15:17:00.002-05:00

Time for another reader question:

What are your thoughts on the Dolphins' QB situation? I read on your site that the Bills might have an interest in acquiring Tyler Thigpen. Do you think that is a possibility? It looks like the Dolphins want Henne to be the starter for the 2010 season. What QB that is currently on the Dolphins would be the best backup for Henne? Why did the Dolphins draft Pat White last year?

I really hope that the Bills do have an interest in trading for Thigpen because that would solve a lot of problems for Miami.

I was never really on board with the trade for Thigpen to begin with. I still cannot wrap my head around the logic of trading away a valuable fifth round pick in a very deep draft for a guy who is coming in to be the third QB for half a season. The front office had to know that Chad Pennington would be ready to play by the time 2010 rolled around and that he could probably be persuaded into re-signing as the backup.

But now there's a logjam at the QB position and the team has to decide if it can squeeze Pennington back onto the roster or let him go in favor of the clearly inferior Thigpen and Pat White.

So, yes, it would be a great help if the Bills made a run for Thigpen. I think it's certainly a possibility since their QB situation is such a mess. Miami could also facilitate things by essentially giving him away for a seventh-round pick. Also, I don't really think Thigpen is all that good, so if the Bills were to choose to place their future hopes in his hands, well that's all the better for Miami, right?

The best backup on the team for Henne right now is unquestionably Pennington. And I stress "right now" because Pennington might not be on the team in a month, so we can't count on having him as that option. I'd say the next best option is a toss-up. White and Thigpen can both run the change-up spread option packages that have been installed. If it comes down to those two though, I'd like to see White as the backup simply because he has a higher upside and the team needs to keep him active on game days to try to get him involved in other ways. He really needs to learn some receiver routes so that he can stay in games for entire drives and switch to QB from the field rather than coming in from the sideline.

I didn't like the choice of Pat White in last year's draft and it still looks pretty bad. The way the team is going about his development isn't helping things. Henne is the current and presumably future starter at QB so they shouldn't try to force White into becoming the same kind of player. That's not what he is. He is a backup who has the versatility to be involved in a lot of aspects of the offense. Use him in spread packages. Use him as a receiver. Use him in conventional packages. But don't continue with this pattern of shoehorning him into games just to hand the ball off. At least let him throw the ball.

Overall, Miami's QB situation at this moment is solely defined by Chad Henne. I was pleased with his production this year, but there are clear areas of his game that must get better if he is to become the kind of QB that this team will need if they are serious about making a legitimate run for a championship. He must improve his accuracy on all passes, he must improve his situational passing (aka not gunning it at a running back who is three yards away), he must improve his ability to read a defense, and the team must open up the playbook more and let him throw downfield.

Dolphins embarass themselves trying to get rid of Porter

2010-02-13T11:50:00.002-05:00

OK, so everyone was pretty much in agreement that Joey Porter had to go this offseason after the ridiculous team-bashing remarks that he made before the Super Bowl. Not to mention the fact that he is delusional about how good of a player he truly is. Newsflash Joey: You are pathetic against the run. Absolutely pathetic. And you're hurt almost half the season so you use that as your excuse for why you aren't getting double-digit sack numbers.

Maybe the real reason is because you're losing a step or two.

In fact, ProFootballFocus ranked Joey 22nd out of the 28 3-4 OLBs who played at least 25% of their team's snaps. He was statistically the worst OLB on the Dolphins, finishing behind luminaries like Charlie Anderson and Quentin Moses.

Well, the Dolphins clearly had had enough, so they decided to release Porter.

Good idea...except that they don't have the cap space right now to absorb his cap acceleration, so the NFL had to step in and reverse the move, calling it an invalid termination. So now Porter is back on the team, until March 5 at least, which is the beginning of the new league year.

This is embarrassing. How the hell did this front office not realize the cap ramifications of cutting Porter right now? That seems like something basic - if you are going to conduct a transaction, you should know the consequences. Now it looks like the guys running the team are clueless or ignorant.

And maybe they are, since cutting Matt Roth midway through this past season has never looked like a more buffoonish decision. I was strongly against the move at the time, and now even more so.

Even in his limited time with Cleveland, Roth played 371 snaps and finished 7th on that list of 3-4 OLBs, one in front of Jason Taylor. Porter played 755 snaps, almost exactly twice as many as Roth, yet Porter only recorded a combined 16 QB hits and pressures. Roth had 17...in half as many plays. Oh, and as usual Roth was an absolute beast stopping the run.

Even Cameron Wake wiped the floor with Porter (and every other pass rusher on the Dolphins). Wake played a mere 167 snaps, but tallied an incredible 26 QB hits and pressures. 26! In one fourth the snaps! And it's not like Porter was getting the Jason Taylor treatment and being taken off the field in passing situations or asked to cover backs and tight ends. Just like Wake, he was pretty much just rushing the passer, play after play.

So good riddance Joey. You're not a complete player, you never were, and the one part of the game you are good at is slipping more and more all the time.

Now, if only we still had Roth. Oh well, hopefully Porter's eventual release means that Jason Taylor is more likely to stick around for another year.

Reviewing Preseason Projections: Quarterbacks

2010-02-11T00:01:00.000-05:00

In my annual preseason roster breakdown, I included all of Football Outsiders' KUBIAK individual player projections.

It's always interesting to see how the system fares.

For the QBs, it's tough, because the system projects them (Pennington and Henne) as if they each played all 16 games. Of course, neither did, so we will have to approach them accordingly.

Here are the preseason KUBIAK projections:

	Att	Comp	C%	Yds	TD	INT	FUM	NY/P	DVOA	Runs	Yds	TD
Pennington	492	321	65.2%	3576	22	14	7	6.6	15.3%	29	105	1
Henne	455	280	61.5%	3360	17	13	8	6.2	5.5%	15	61	0
White	25	17	69.5%	212	1	1	2	7.5	4.9%	40	208	3

Pennington's numbers can pretty much be thrown out since he played less than three games. And let's scale Henne's numbers to fit a 14 game season since that's about what he ended up playing (he got significant action against the Chargers after Pennington went down).

Using that scale, Henne's projection would have looked like this:

	Att	Comp	C%	Yds	TD	INT	FUM	NY/P	DVOA	Runs	Yds	TD
Henne	398	245	61.5%	2940	15	11	7	6.2	5.5%	13	53	0

And here are his actual numbers:

	Att	Comp	C%	Yds	TD	INT	FUM	NY/P	DVOA	Runs	Yds	TD
Henne	451	274	60.8%	2878	12	14	4	5.7	7.8%	16	32	1

The KUBIAK system has the most trouble projecting young players who have yet to really play yet, but it did a pretty good job with Henne.

While the system thought that Henne would throw the ball a lot less than he did, it actually projected him to accrue more yardage. That's mainly because it projected him to have a slightly higher completion percentage to go along with a much higher net yards per pass number. And that NY/P number is key. He has to get that up from a disappointing 5.7.

KUBIAK also thought that Henne would have a positive TD/INT ratio which he did not. But the system was still only three off his actual number of TDs and INTs. Perhaps most impressively, the system pretty much nailed his DVOA.

I'd chalk this one up as another success for the KUBIAK system and statistical projections in general.

Of course, Pat White is a whole other story. It's clear KUBIAK (like the rest of us) had no idea what role White was going to have. It saw him attempting 25 passes and instead he threw a mere 5, completing none. It also saw him getting 40 rushing attempts when he really only got 21. Interestingly, the projection system also had White seeing time at receiver, with 17 catches, but he obviously was not used in that manner.

2009 Pass Defense Review Final

2010-02-08T18:05:00.003-05:00

So I just realized that I forgot to post these numbers after the season.

Below, I've created a table of every player who recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense this season. Take a look:

	Scks	QH	INT	PD
Jason Allen				2
Will Allen		2	2	6
Charlie Anderson	2
Akin Ayodele		2
Ryan Baker	0.5	1
Yeremiah Bell	1.5	1	3	9
Channing Crowder	1	2	1	2
Tyrone Culver			1	4
Vontae Davis			4	11
Jason Ferguson				1
Nathan Jones	1	1	2	10
Kendall Langford	2.5	5		2
Tony McDaniel	1.5	2		1
Phillip Merling	2.5	4		3
Quentin Moses	1	1
Joey Porter	9	13		1
Sean Smith				12
Paul Soliai		1		1
Randy Starks	7	16
Jason Taylor	7	6	1	5
Reggie Torbor	1	4	1	5
Cameron Wake	5.5	9		1
Gibril Wilson	1	3		8
TOTAL	44	73	13	80

First off, while Miami's defense certainly didn't play well this year, they were in no way awful, and truth be told they were hardly different from last year. People have to remember that the strength of schedule was vastly different between this year and last year, so staying put on defense just looked a whole lot worse this year. The performance was still pretty similar though.

To wit, Miami finished 2009 with an overall defensive DVOA of 3.1% and a pass defense DVOA of 1.5%, good for 11th in the league. In 2008, they finished with an overall defensive DVOA of 3.0% and a pass defense DVOA of 5.3%. So Miami was actually marginally better in pass defense in 2009 than 2008! Remember, it's adjusted for the opposition, which makes a huge difference when you go from facing Matt Cassell, Joe Flacco, Seneca Wallace, JaMarcus Russell, Marc Bulger, Shaun Hill, and Tyler Thigpen in 2008 to facing Tom Brady (twice), Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, and Ben Roethlisberger in 2009.

Seriously, those two lists could not be more different. It's amazing how lucky Miami got in 2008 with such a cupcake schedule (and Tom Brady's injury). That's the biggest reason why I was hesitant to see Paul Pasqualoni get fired. His defense played the same, just against a schedule infinitely tougher. Obviously, it's a black mark against him that he wasn't able to get them to improve, but there's no guarantee Mike Nolan will be able to do that either and there is something to be said for continuity.

As far as the individual pass defense numbers go, Miami did very well in the sack department, but I think they could have gotten more quarterback pressures. They were finishing the job when they got there, but not getting there quite enough.

And the defense definitely needs to create more turnovers. Vontae Davis did a nice job forcing the issue all year, although he needs to work on improving his lockdown coverage skills. Sean Smith, supposedly a ballhawk, didn't get a single INT, and he started the whole year.

Reader Question: Talking 2010 Draft

2010-01-28T14:00:00.002-05:00

With the season over and Miami's roster needing help in very specific areas, it's a good time to start thinking about the 2010 Draft.

Here's a question a reader sent in:

With the draft coming up, some are speculating that the Phins might get a chance to pick Rolando McClain ILB with their first overall pick. Is he worth it? If he is off the board do you think Dan Williams NT or Terrence Cody NT would be the next choice? I don't see the Phins picking a WR with their first choice. How likely is it the the Dolphins will get a wide receiver through free agency?

That definitely hits on the major areas of need for this team right now - ILB, NT, and WR.

Of course, some of those needs could be addressed in free agency - particularly ILB and NT. For instance, Miami may be able to make a run at Karlos Dansby who would immediately push Akin Ayodele out of the starting lineup. The team could certainly get by with a starting duo of Dansby and Crowder for a couple of years, but Dansby won't come cheap and he is 29 years old.

At NT, Jason Ferguson recently said that his return is still up in the air. It would be great to re-sign him to a one-year deal, but regardless, the team should also explore signing one of the top NT in free agency like Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, Aubrayo Franklin, or Ryan Pickett. Signing any of those guys to pair with Soliai and/or Ferguson would not only be a great boost to the defense, but it would take away the need to use a draft pick on one of the premier NT prospects in this draft, freeing up that choice to be used elsewhere like at OLB or WR.

But whether the Phins sign Dansby or not, Rolando McClain is definitely worthy of being picked at the #12 spot. He has everything this regime looks for in a player - he's big, fast, and has a ton of experience in college, even for a junior. If he's available, it's hard to see Miami passing on him, unless they get a tremendous offer to trade down. And even if Miami was to trade down only two or three picks with a team looking to get in position to snag a top QB, McClain might stay on the board into the mid-teens. That would be the ultimate win-win situation.

As for Williams and Cody, assuming the team didn't address this need in free agency, I still don't think either is worth taking so high in the draft. In fact, I have a feeling one or both of them may still be available when Miami picks in the second round, so it would not make sense to reach this greatly for either one. They both have serious conditioning issues that make them prime boom or bust candidates. With the 12th pick, Miami needs much more of a sure thing. And if they can get Ferguson back for one more year, they can put off this need until next year.

Unfortunately, I don't see Miami taking a WR in the first round either. I say "unfortunately" because Parcells and Ireland seem to be stuck in the mindset that they can simply throw a receiving corps together out of undrafted free agents and a gaggle of #3 guys. Well, it doesn't work that way. If this team wants a stud receiver (and it should) it needs to take the risk and invest highly in one. And there may not be a riskier pick at WR than Dez Bryant, but if he's sitting there when Miami picks, I would hate to seem them pass him over.

WR help is just not going to come via free agency. All the best WRs will be restricted free agents this year, which means they probably aren't leaving their current teams, and if they do, whatever team gets them will likely be overpaying by a sizable amount. The most attractive unrestricted free agent WR is probably Antonio Bryant, and while I wouldn't mind seeing him in Miami for the right price, he's 29 years old, and he showed this year that he isn't a true #1 guy. Parcells and Ireland are going to have to come to terms with reality and get over their ridiculous fear of drafting a WR early.

Brett Favre's season-ending plays

2010-01-24T23:23:00.002-05:00

It's no secret that I detest Brett Favre. There's absolutely nothing likable about him. So I was obviously overjoyed to see him go down in the manner he did tonight against the Saints. Which got me thinking to how he ended his season the year before...and the year before that.

So without further ado, here's a fond look back on the last play of Brett Favre's last three seasons:

2007, choking away the NFC Championship game versus the Giants with a classic Favre-INT:

2008, getting absolutely destroyed by Yeremiah Bell as the Dolphins go into New York and take the AFC East crown:

2009, once again choking away the NFC Championship with a game-deciding INT late:

Mike Nolan hired as defensive coordinator

2010-01-20T00:09:00.000-05:00

After missing out on their first choices for defensive coordinator, the Dolphins received a bit of a gift on Monday when Mike Nolan parted ways with the Denver Broncos after spending just one year there.

Nolan's departure from Denver was spurred on when Miami sent a written request to interview him for the open DC position. Because this was a lateral move, Denver was not required to consent. But head coach Josh McDaniels asked Nolan where he would rather be, and when Nolan said Miami, the two parties agreed to part ways.

And just a day later he was officially hired as Miami's new defensive coordinator.

Nolan runs an aggressive 3-4 scheme, so Miami will be able to maintain the basic structure of its defense.

Dolphins stadium gets (another) new name

2010-01-18T18:58:00.002-05:00

Last year's partnership and stadium naming venture with Landshark Lager was set to expire before the Pro Bowl.

So it's no surprise that the Dolphins organization has already lined up its next naming-rights sponsor.

Sun Life Financial will pay about $7.5 million a year over the next five years in return for the Dolphins naming their stadium Sun Life Stadium. Sun Life is an international financial company dealing primarily with life insurance.

The name is fitting given South Florida's abundant sunshine, and in my opinion it works better than Landshark Stadium.

At the very least, the new income source should help stem the rise of ticket prices.

Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 Final)

2010-01-16T00:05:00.000-05:00

Now that the season is over, it's time to start rolling out some reviews.

First up is the special teams coverage.

Jason Allen finished off the season very strong, notching 7 special teams tackles in the last four games. He finished second on the team behind only Nathan Jones, who had a spectacular year on kick coverage, racking up 19 tackles and a forced fumble. Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent so hopefully the team can get him re-signed before he hits the open market.

Early on, the coverage teams were forced to overcome the loss of Patrick Cobbs, who was a leader of these units last year. Surprisingly, they were able to step up in his absence with little trouble. Even Cameron Wake, who was a big question mark in terms of special teams ability, stepped up and contributed 11 STTs. Lex Hilliard also proved his worth with 14 STTs.

Erik Walden was really the only player who I noticed taking a bit of a step back in kick coverage, and much of that can be attributed to him being hurt for a long stretch.

Here's how all the players stack up according to special teams tackles:

	Tkl	Ast	Comb	FF
Jason Allen	14	1	15
Charlie Anderson	7	2	9
Akin Ayodele	1		1
Greg Camarillo	1		1
Dan Carpenter	1	1	2
Chris Clemons	6	1	7
Patrick Cobbs	1		1
Tyrone Culver	9	3	12
Vontae Davis	4		4
John Denney	6	1	7
Brandon Fields	2		2
J.D. Folsom	1		1
Brian Hartline	5		5
Joey Haynos		1	1
Lex Hilliard	12	2	14
Nathan Jones	15	4	19	1
Reggie Torbor	8	2	10
Cameron Wake	9	2	11
Erik Walden	7	1	8
Gibril Wilson	3		3

Bill Sheridan likely to become LB coach

2010-01-13T00:17:00.002-05:00

Michael Lombardi is reporting that former Giants' defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan is expected to join the Dolphins' coaching staff as the linebackers coach.

Sheridan was the Giants' linebackers coach for four seasons before being promoted to defensive coordinator last season.

Pasqualoni fired

2010-01-11T18:23:00.002-05:00

Miami continues to shed defensive coaches this month - this time it's the defensive coordinator, Paul Pasqualoni.

While not exactly a surprise, this move certainly wasn't written in stone either. The defense wilted down the stretch, that's for sure. But the defense as a whole performed at a level identical to that in 2008 - 3.0% DVOA in 2008 compared to 3.1% DVOA in 2009. In fact, this year's team actually played better down the stretch than the '08 version according to the numbers. And the reason should be clear. The 'D' in DVOA stands for "defense-adjusted." Well, Miami played the third hardest schedule in the NFL this year (7.9% DVOA) compared to the 29th hardest schedule in 2008 (-5.4% DVOA). That should explain a lot right there.

The defense really didn't play much different. The opponents just got a lot harder.

And there is something to be said for continuity. It's highly disruptive to be cycling so many coaches and coordinators through the organization at this pace. It's a lot easier to get improvement from players young and old when they are given the time to get comfortable in a certain scheme and learn its nuances instead of having to pick up a brand new system every other year.

Hopefully, the new defensive coordinator employs a similar 3-4 scheme. At this point, the names being discussed as possible replacements include Al Groh, Romeo Crennel, and Mike Zimmer.

Ten players signed

2010-01-11T00:07:00.002-05:00

After the season is over, you always see teams sign a handful of players to futures contracts which expand the roster to its larger offseason size in preparation for spring OTAs.

So far this year, Miami has signed ten players.

Six of the players signed were those on Miami's practice squad to end the year: WR Julius Pruit, TE John Nalbone, RB Tristan Davis, S Nate Ness, WR Taurus Johnson, and G Ray Feinga.

Miami also signed three former CFL players: WR Ryan Grice-Mullen, FB Rolly Lumbala, and G Dimitri Tsoumpas.

To cap off the flurry of signings, Miami also added LB Brian Johnston. Johnston was a seventh-round draft pick of the Chiefs in 2008. He appeared in nine games that year, but was out of football this season.

Miami loses two LB coaches

2010-01-10T23:44:00.000-05:00

Miami has lost two of its defensive coaches to the college ranks.

Outside linebackers coach Jim Reid left the Dolphins to become the defensive coordinator at the University of Virginia.

Inside linebackers coach George Edwards left to become the defensive coordinator at the University of Florida.

Immediate speculation in the wake of these two losses has centered around former Virginia head coach Al Groh possibly joining the Dolphins as a linebacker coach. Groh has previously worked under Bill Parcells and is well-versed in the 3-4 defensive scheme.

In other coaching news, the Miami coaching staff has been selected to coach one of the teams in the Senior Bowl.

While this is partly the result of finishing with a poor record, the opportunity to see these college players up close in the Dolphins' system will give the coaching staff a leg up on scouting for the upcoming draft.

The Senior Bowl will take place on January 30.

Week 17 vs. Steelers Prediction

2010-01-02T18:26:00.002-05:00

This is likely the last we will be seeing of the Dolphins until training camp rolls around again, so we had better enjoy this game.

A reader asks:

The last time these two teams faced each other the Steelers won 3-0. Should we expect a similar outcome on Sunday? Which is the better team?

Ah, the famous Mud Bowl. I remember that game quite well as it was some of the most awful, sloppy, meaningless football I've ever seen. And yet it was still a very exciting game to watch because everyone knew the game would come down to a single positive play, but no one knew when it would come and everyone knew there would be only one such play. It was like Russian roulette, but instead of a bullet there was a non-botched field goal. Amazingly, it took almost all sixty minutes in regulation to get to that one play.

So unless there is a torrential downpour in Miami on Sunday and the team absolutely botches its field management like the Steelers did in 2007 (seriously Pittsburgh, you're going to truck in new sod and just lay it down on top of the old crap the night before the game and hope that it doesn't turn into a giant swamp?), this game won't be like that one.

In fact, I'm fairly confident that Miami's defense couldn't hold any team in the league to just three points right now.

The Steelers are flat-out the better team. Sure, Miami's running game is better than theirs. As is their special teams. But Pittsburgh's dug themselves out of a five-game losing streak, their passing game is on fire, and Miami's secondary will be hard-pressed to slow it down enough to give the offense a chance to keep the team in the game.

I'm picking the Steelers to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 10-5.

Although Miami is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, their chances are microscopic. But hey, as long as they aren't officially out, I won't count them out.

Long selected to Pro Bowl; Crowder to IR; practice squad update

2009-12-30T20:56:00.003-05:00

To no one's surprise, Jake Long has been selected to this year's Pro Bowl.

He is Miami's only representative on the roster, but that could change as players get hurt or substitutions have to be made for the Super Bowl participants.

FB Lousaka Polite was probably snubbed, as LeRon McClain was selected over him, but otherwise there was no other clear cut position where Miami should have had another representative.

In other news, Channing Crowder has been placed on Injured Reserve with a foot injury, ending his season. Some people have speculated that he may have suffered a Lisfranc fracture similar to the injury sustained by Ronnie Brown this year. We won't know for sure until the swelling goes down and doctors are able to get a more accurate scan.

Also, the Dolphins adjusted their practice squad last week, cutting G Mark Lewis and signing P Britton Colquitt. But today, the Broncos signed Colquitt to their active roster off the Dolphins' practice squad, leaving an open space to fill.

The move was a bit strange since Brandon Fields has been playing pretty well and there haven't been any reports of a possible injury. Perhaps the team wanted to see how strong Colquitt's kickoff leg is?

Anyway, Miami is now left with an open roster spot on the 53-man roster, as well as one on the practice squad.

Week 16 vs. Texans Prediction

2009-12-26T10:38:00.003-05:00

Like last week, let's get right into this week's prediction post with an email from a reader:

If I remember correctly the Dolphins have a losing record against the Texans. Which is the better offense? Which is the better defense? What do the Dolphins need to do to win?

You're right that the Dolphins have a losing record against the Texans. In fact, Miami has never beaten them in the four times the two teams have been matched up with one another.

Miami will need to get their first win against this franchise if they want to entertain any slim playoff hopes past this weekend.

As far as offenses go, while Miami's offense is decent, Houston's can be quite scary at times - when they aren't turning the ball over. And Houston's offense does turn the ball over a lot. They are 24th in the NFL when it comes to turnovers per drive, at 0.164. Of course, Miami is not that much better, sitting at 0.154 TOs/drive.

Houston's offense is also incredibly one-dimensional. Their passing offense has a ridiculously good 43.7% DVOA, while their rushing offense is an abysmal -12.3% DVOA. But that passing attack is so lethal that it can make up for the rushing deficiencies. So I would say that Houston has the better overall offense, but Miami's ground attack is stronger than Houston's.

As far as defenses go, both teams have a very similar DVOA - Miami at 3.8% and Houston at 5.4%. But if you look at Weighted DVOA, which discounts earlier games as less important to current success, you'll see that Houston's defense is playing slightly better than Miami's - 3.6% for Miami compared to -1.4% for Houston. (Remember, when it comes to defense, negative DVOA is better). Houston's defense has a particular deficiency defending against the pass, while they are decent at stopping the run. The Texans pass defense struggles most noticeably against opposing teams #1 and #2 WRs in addition to tight ends. Surprisingly, they are also the best defense in the league at defending running backs in the passing game.

In the end, I'd give the slightest edge to Houston's defense.

In order to win this game, Miami will have to do two things. 1) Run a pass-oriented offense. They can't let Chad Henne's copious amount of interceptions in recent weeks deter them from going after Houston's glaring weakness on defense. And 2) The offense needs to reverse its habit of turning the ball over so frequently.

I'm torn on how this game will turn out, but I'm ultimately picking the Texans to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 9-5.

Last week's loss to the Titans slashed Miami's playoff chances to 8.9%

Practice squad update: McCaskill out, Feinga in

2009-12-21T21:44:00.002-05:00

Last week, Miami made an alteration to its practice squad, releasing the recently signed T Nevin McCaskill and replacing him with G Ray Feinga.

Feinga (6'4, 337) was an undrafted free agent out of BYU this year. He spent time in the offseason with the Rams and Chargers.

Here's a draft analysis of Feinga from SI:

Feinga has been a solid lineman at BYU and displays skill in pass protection or as a run blocker. He possesses enticing size and will get consideration in the middle rounds from a power running team.

And here's one from NFL.com:

A highly recruited prep star who turned down the likes of Southern California, Notre Dame and Oregon to play at Brigham Young, Feinga leaves BYU as a two-time first-team All-MWC pick at left guard and a potential middle-round pick. Blessed with great size, surprising balance and long arms, Feinga is more consistent in pass protection than as a run blocker, though he lacks the lateral quickness to fit in every NFL offense. Had an arm span of 33 1/2 inches and a hand span of 10 inches at the combine.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

WR Julius Pruit
TE John Nalbone
RB Tristan Davis
LB J.D. Folsom
S Nate Ness
G/C Mark Lewis
WR Taurus Johnson
G Ray Feinga

Week 15 @ Titans Prediction

2009-12-19T15:55:00.003-05:00

Let's get right into talking about the Titans with an email from a reader:

How do you rate the Titans' offense and defense? With Haynesworth with the Redskins will it be easier for the Dolphins offense to move the ball?

Miami and Tennessee are similar in that for both teams, their offenses are their strengths and their defenses are their weakness, although not to quite the same degree.

Tennesse's offense, while not elite, is an above average unit, due primarily to a runner in Chris Johnson who is simply phenomenal. Their passing attack is not nearly as dangerous, although it has been getting better with the insertion of Vince Young back into the lineup. But Young and WR Nate Washington will be playing with injuries, which might slow down the passing game even more. The Titans offense presents itself in such a way that Miami will likely have to take its chances and bring 8 or 9 guys into the box almost at all times in order to contain Johnson and spy Young.

The Titans defense, on the other hand, is bad. Their pass defense is downright awful, while their run defense is merely below average. And missing out on Albert Haynesworth has definitely played a role in this defense's downfall. But Miami's game plan shouldn't be to rely on the run. I think they should once again go into the game planning to use a pass-heavy offense with a complementary ground game. Tennessee is one of the worst teams in the league at defending opposing tight ends, as evidenced by their 31.8% DVOA (31st in the league) in that area. Miami should look to exploit that glaring weakness and get Anthony Fasano and Joey Haynos heavily involved in the offense this week.

Both Miami and Tennessee started off the season very poorly and have only recently begun to play their best football. The Titans have completely erased the stench of their 0-6 start and are a dangerous matchup for the Dolphins. The game may turn into a shootout, but I think Miami will somehow pull it out in the end.

I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 9-4.

Last week's win over the Jaguars boosted Miami's playoff chances to 27%

Week 14 @Jaguars Prediction

2009-12-13T00:08:00.001-05:00

One week Miami loses to a team that is far inferior; the next week they beat a team that was seemingly far superior than they.

It's all culminated in the Dolphins standing at 6-6, with a quarter of the season left to play, and the playoff picture in the AFC a cloudy mess. Both the AFC East division title and a wildcard spot are still very much in play for Miami.

Of course, the margin for error is almost nonexistent. There's a good chance Miami will need to win out in order to advance to the postseason.

And up first in that quest is the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are a strange case because they have a winning record (7-5) but the numbers don't indicate that they are a very good team. Most strikingly, the Jaguars have actually been outscored by 48 points over the course of the season, yet still have a winning record. Their offense is certainly capable, led by MJD, but they will likely be without up-and-coming WR Mike Sims-Walker who is doubtful with an injury.

Also doubtful for the Jaguars is DT John Henderson and CB Rashean Mathis. That will definitely hurt an already below average defense. Miami's offense should not have issues scoring points in this game. So it will likely come down to Miami's defense stepping up and containing MJD and David Garrard.

I'd also like to mention that just as I was about to eat some crow regarding Jake Grove, I must politely renege. One of my main gripes was his inescapable injury history, and it is taking its toll once again. This will be the third straight game that Grove will miss (actually more like three and a half if you count the time he missed in the Panthers game). This team is paying out the wazoo for a guy they had to know would miss significant time with injury troubles. And if they chose to overlook that, then shame on them.

Regardless, I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 8-4.

Last week's win over the Patriots boosted Miami's playoff chances to 22.9%

2009 Pass Defense Review (Part 3)

2009-12-12T19:36:00.002-05:00

Yesterday, I looked at how Miami's special teams coverage players have fared through three quarters of the season. Today, I turn my attention to the pass defense statistics.

Below, I've created a table of every player who has recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense. Take a look:

	Scks	QH	INT	PD
Jason Allen				1
Will Allen		2	2	6
Charlie Anderson	1
Ryan Baker	0.5	1
Yeremiah Bell	1.5	1	1	6
Channing Crowder	1	2	1	2
Tyrone Culver			1	4
Vontae Davis			3	8
Jason Ferguson				1
Nathan Jones			2	8
Kendall Langford	1.5	3
Tony McDaniel	1.5	2		1
Phillip Merling	2.5	4		2
Joey Porter	7	11		1
Sean Smith				11
Paul Soliai				1
Randy Starks	6	13
Jason Taylor	6	6	1	4
Reggie Torbor		2	1	4
Cameron Wake	4.5	8
Gibril Wilson	1	3		6
TOTAL	34	58	10	62

Well, the good news is that Channing Crowder finally got on the board with some plays. Akin Ayodele, however, remains conspicuously absent as he is the only regular defensive player missing from the list.

Joey Porter has stepped it up over the past quarter-season, more than doubling his half-season sack and quarterback hit totals from 2.5 to 7 and 5 to 11, respectively. Much of that has to do with being healthy enough to play, of course.

Randy Starks is continuing his monster season, leading all players with a combined 19 sacks and QHs.

In the secondary, this team is not forcing enough turnovers. Sean Smith, for all his purported ball-hawking skills, has yet to get an interception (or a sack or QH for that matter).

Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 Part 3)

2009-12-11T21:29:00.002-05:00

With 12 games in the books, the Dolphins are 75% of the way through the season. And so it's time once again to take a look at how the special teams coverage guys are stacking up in terms of tackles.

In just four games since the last coverage review I did, Nathan Jones has recorded 7 special teams tackles. He now has a whopping 17 on the season, and a forced fumble on coverage as well. This is pretty incredible since last year he recorded 9 STTs all season, and Miami's top tacklers on coverage in 2008 (Jason Allen and Patrick Cobbs) recorded 16 each on the season. Jones has surpassed those numbers in just 12 games. He's simply a beast covering kicks right now. In fact, he seems to have taken over Jason Allen's role as the top coverage guy.

Lex Hilliard and Tyrone Culver are also making their impacts felt, with 12 and 11 STTs respectively.

Here's how all the players stack up according to special teams tackles:

	Tkl	Ast	Comb	FF
Jason Allen	7	1	8
Charlie Anderson	7	2	9
Akin Ayodele	1		1
Dan Carpenter	1	1	2
Chris Clemons	4	1	5
Patrick Cobbs	1		1
Tyrone Culver	8	3	11
Vontae Davis	4		4
John Denney	6	1	7
Brandon Fields	1		1
J.D. Folsom	1		1
Brian Hartline	4		4
Joey Haynos		1	1
Lex Hilliard	10	2	12
Nathan Jones	13	4	17	1
Reggie Torbor	7	2	9
Cameron Wake	5	2	7
Erik Walden	6	1	7
Gibril Wilson	3		3

Murtha to IR, Oglesby re-signed; practice squad update

2009-12-11T21:05:00.002-05:00

A flurry of roster moves have happened over the past few days.

First, TE David Martin, who was on injured reserve, was released by the team. I'm not really sure of the reasoning behind this move. Perhaps Martin felt he was back to full strength and wanted a chance to sign with some other team.

T Lydon Murtha, who was claimed off Detroit's practice squad in October, has been placed on IR with an ankle injury that he sustained in practice on Wednesday.

Taking his place is CB Evan Oglesby, who was on Miami's roster for four days last month.

The Dolphins also tweaked its practice squad, releasing CB Will Billingsley and signing T Nevin McCaskill.

McCaskill (6'4, 315) is 25 years old. He was an undrafted free agent out of Hampton in 2007. He has spent time with the Bills, Eagles, Jets, and Packers. He was on the Packers' active roster for the final three games in 2008. He can play both guard and tackle.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

WR Julius Pruit
TE John Nalbone
RB Tristan Davis
LB J.D. Folsom
S Nate Ness
G/C Mark Lewis
WR Taurus Johnson
T Nevin McCaskill

Week 13 vs. Patriots Recap

2009-12-08T20:50:00.002-05:00

Wins against the Patriots are always the sweetest aren't they?

Of course, it does sting a little bit knowing that Miami should not have lost to Buffalo the week before, and if they hadn't, the Dolphins would be leading the AFC East right now. Oh well, they made their bed and now they have to sleep in it - which likely means winning out if they want to make the playoffs.

But let's get back to Sunday's excellent win over the Pats:

I, for one, thought the game was over once New England went ahead 14-0 like it was nothing. Kudos to this team for not giving up. Because for a moment there it looked like they might have just been throwing the towel in on the season.
Chad Henne has made a lot of strides since he took over the reigns of this offense, but the one that may be most noticeable has only started to happen over the last three weeks or so, and that is his awareness in the pocket and his avoidance of sacks. This offense can't afford negative plays, so limiting the number of sacks he takes has really helped.
That being said, he needs to work on his accuracy and touch. His sub-60% completion rate is not good enough. And missing those wide open throws to Fasano and Polite could have been killer. He also needs to do a better job of finding throwing lanes to avoid having his passes batted at the line rather than hoping a lane will emerge for him.
See everyone, good things will happen when you feature the pass in your offense. Hopefully we see more of this strategy moving forward.
Channing Crowder finally made an impact play. Of course, it was about the easiest interception he could have had, but still, at this point no one is complaining. Also, Cameron Wake's first step on that play was ridiculous. That boy has some burst.
Jake Long is realllllyyy lucky the refs didn't call his false start on the fourth down play that Miami converted near the end of the fourth quarter.
Sean Smith is really struggling. I've pointed out his embarrassing lack of physicality seemingly every week, and it was on display again, as he whiffed on several tackles, including one on Welker that almost resulted in a first down if not for some help defenders coming to save the day. And of course, the 81-yard TD to Sam Aiken was just horrible. Not only didn't he get his head around to spot the ball, choosing instead to just blindly hold up an arm (while possible jumping negative inches) but then he put no effort into bringing Aiken down once he had the ball. Smith was supposed to have such good ball skills, but he seems unable to get his head turned around to make a play on the ball, so he usually just keeps running downfield and puts a hand up. And for a 6'4 guy to get outjumped is pretty bad, but Smith doesn't seem to want to leave the ground to make a play. He really needs to step his game up - I know he has it in him.
Bess, Camarillo, and Hartline ran some excellent routes in this game. And Hartline is becoming something of a redzone technician - the type of guy Patrick Turner is supposed to be.
If the team is going to keep trotting Pat White out there, let him throw the damn ball!
Congrats to the defense for finally stepping up in the fourth quarter. I think they realized it might be better in some situations like that to only rush 3 or 4 guys and drop the rest in coverage. If nothing else, it prevents the big play and keeps the team alive to fight another down.

Losing to the Bills and then beating the Pats....

2009-12-08T20:47:00.002-05:00

Week 13 vs. Patriots Prediction

2009-12-06T00:01:00.001-05:00

With the Pats losing last Monday to the Saints, the Dolphins really missed out on crucial opportunity to make the stakes for this week's game the division lead when they lost to the Bills. Now, they have to win just to say alive for the wildcard spot.

New England is obviously a much better team than they showed against the Saints, and no one should expect them to play so poorly two weeks in a row.

As usual, New England will score its points, especially against Miami's porous defense. The key will be to get a turnover or two in the midst of the scoring to at least give the offense a chance to catch up.

I just don't think the Dolphins will be able to pull off the upset, and if that's the case, their playoff chances are probably shot.

I'm picking the Patriots to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 8-3.

Miami's playoff chances currently stand at 10.4%

Taurus Johnson added to practice squad

2009-12-03T00:09:00.004-05:00

Rookie WR Taurus Johnson was added to Miami's practice squad on Wednesday, filling the spot vacated by Ryan Baker's promotion to the active roster.

Taurus (6'0, 206) was a four-year player from the University of South Florida. He went undrafted but spent training camp with the Chiefs and was later signed to the Lions' practice squad before being cut.

Here are a couple scouting reports on Johnson.

From SI,

Johnson has shown flashes of ability the past three years, yet he has never taken his game to the next level, even when afforded the opportunity. He offers potential as a fourth or fifth receiver at the next level.

And from NFL.com,

It's very fitting that a player named Taurus plays for the USF Bulls. Johnson has flashed playmaking ability throughout his career, averaging 36 catches for 466 yards and four scores over the past three seasons. Although he has been inconsistent and will not be confused for a track star anytime soon, Johnson's has been QB Matt Groethe's go-to receiver. His size, hands, quick feet and kick return experience make him a potential No. 3 receiver and special teams contributor at the next level.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

CB Will Billingsley
WR Julius Pruit
TE John Nalbone
RB Tristan Davis
LB J.D. Folsom
S Nate Ness
G/C Mark Lewis
WR Taurus Johnson

Week 12 @ Bills recap

2009-11-30T00:19:00.002-05:00

That was an inexcusable loss. Just embarrassing.

Those are the kind of games that good teams just simply don't lose. Good teams don't even let the other team think they have a chance to win. Well, Miami let Buffalo stay in the game when the fourth quarter rolled around, and by that point all bets were off.
Speaking of the fourth quarter, why is this team continually collapsing in that period?
Say it with me, "You run when you win, not win when you run." It's nice that Ricky had another good day running, but the most effective running comes in the second half, when a team is grinding out clock and protecting a lead. It's much less effective in building a lead. Miami needs its offense to get out to multiple score leads, and relying on the run so heavily will rarely achieve that kind of buffer. The receivers may be pretty bad, but that shouldn't shut down the passing game entirely.
Gus Johnson is an exciting announcer. It just sucks when he's excitedly announcing big plays by the other team. It makes them hurt that much more.
The Wildcat with Ricky at the helm isn't doing it for me right now because it lacks the motion man who offers that extra option that defenders must pause to account for. In its current set-up, they all know exactly who is going to have it.
Miami's pass rush was really good, but the coverage behind it was horrible, especially, as usual, the linebackers and safeties covering the tight ends and backs.
The entire defense is going to be hurting without Ferguson. I just don't think Soliai and company can effectively pick up his slack.
The Dolphins likely have to win out in order to make the playoffs now. So essentially the playoffs have just started for Miami. And up first are the Patriots...gulp.

Week 12 @ Bills prediction; Oglesby cut

2009-11-28T17:48:00.002-05:00

Evan Oglesby didn't even last a week with the Dolphins. He was cut in order to make room to promote DE Ryan Baker from the practice squad.

Baker was needed on the roster since Lionel Dotson will not be playing.

Jake Grove will also not be playing because of an ankle injury. And that should surprise no one. Here's what I wrote less than two weeks ago when reviewing the offensive line's performance:

I will say this as well: I absolutely hammered the team's decision to sign Jake Grove this offseason. So far, he's proven me dead wrong. He's been a pleasant surprise. Of course, a lot of that has to do with him bucking a career-long trend of injury woes, so we will have to wait and see how long that continues.

Apparently not long. Grove has never been able to stay healthy and that is one of the major reasons why I disliked his signing so much. Hopefully, this injury is only a one-week deal, but who knows with him.

As for this week's game against the Bills, this is the easiest game Miami will play for the rest of the year. As confident as I was that Miami would beat Tampa Bay, I'm as confident that they will beat the Bills this week. Of course, that doesn't guarantee a blowout (as the Tampa game surely made clear), but it really shouldn't be a game that comes down to the wire.

Miami crushed the Bills in their first meeting this year, and Buffalo has lost even more key players to injury since then. Their offensive line is horrendous, and Miami should be able to pressure the QB all day long. Really, the only scary aspect of the Bills is their special teams.

I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 7-3.

Miami's playoff chances currently stand at 23.7%

Andrew Hartline promoted; practice squad update

2009-11-27T13:42:00.002-05:00

After all the roster moves that happened earlier this week, Miami still had one open spot on the 53-man roster.

They filled it by promoting T Andrew Hartline from the practice squad.

Also, S Nate Ness was re-signed to the practice squad as well as G/C Mark Lewis who had been with the team in training camp and on the practice squad for a short time.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
WR Julius Pruit
TE John Nalbone
RB Tristan Davis
LB J.D. Folsom
S Nate Ness
G/C Mark Lewis

Matt Roth waived; two players added

2009-11-24T19:12:00.002-05:00

In a very surprising move, the Dolphins waived LB Matt Roth on Tuesday. No reason was given. The move is surprising to me because Roth had really stepped up his play all last season as he made the full-time transition to starting outside linebacker and became an elite run stopper. He also finished second on the team in sacks. But then he got hurt this offseason and a huge cloud of suspicion has followed him around ever since, concerning whether he lied to the team or not. But nothing has ever gone public about the perceived standoff between him and the team. It just seems really strange to get rid of a guy who is a young, developing, monster of a run-stopper on the outside. What kind of run-stopping presence does that leave this team with now at the OLB position for both the present and future?

The team also placed NT Jason Ferguson on IR and released S Nate Ness. Ness had been promoted from the practice squad and he may find himself back on it later this week.

So with three open roster spots, the Dolphins signed CB Evan Oglesby and DE Ikaika Alama-Francis.

Oglesby (5'11, 182) is a five-year veteran, coming into the league as an undrafted rookie from Northern Alabama in 2005. He is 27 years old. Oglesby has played in 36 games in his career for the Ravens and Cowboys, primarily in a special teams role.

Alama-Francis (6'5, 290) is in his third year out of Hawaii. He is 24 years old. He originally was a second-round draft pick of the Lions in 2007. He played in 19 games for the Lions with two starts.

These roster moves still leave one open spot on the roster, which will likely be filled in the coming days.

Reader Question: Ted Ginn; Roster updates

2009-11-22T13:42:00.002-05:00

Before I get into a reader question, it should be noted that the Dolphins promoted S Nate Ness from the practice squad prior to the Carolina game. He took the roster spot vacated when Ronnie Brown was placed on IR.

Also, it appears as if Jason Ferguson will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. He hasn't officially been placed on IR yet, but that seems to be the direction the team is leaning.

Now, here's the reader question:

With the new RB the Dolphins signed to the practice squad do you think that it means Ted Ginn will be traded?

The new RB he is speaking of is Tristan Davis - a definite return weapon in college. But the trade dealine for this season has passed already, so no player can be traded until the season is over.

Even so, Davis is just a developmental project at this point. And Ginn has been doing very well on returns so I don't think the front office is looking to upgrade there.

That being said, Ginn is more than just a returner, and as a receiver, well, let's just say he's a good returner. So the team definitely should explore any and all opportunities to trade Ginn this offseason. But they shouldn't simply sell him off for whatever they can get. As we are seeing, he can still bring good value as a kick returner and situation receiver. But if they can get a third round pick or higher, I'd say they should probably pull the trigger.

Ronnie Brown done for the year; Week 11 @ Carolina Prediction

2009-11-19T18:48:00.002-05:00

Well, this sucks.

Ronnie Brown has been placed on Injured Reserve. So he's done for the year. It's believed that his injury is a Lisfranc fracture. It's unknown what kind of timetable there is on his injury, but that will depend on whether Brown opts for surgery or extended rest. It seems likely that he will undergo surgery to correct the problem. He could miss parts of training camp next offseason.

And for those people who continue to say that Brown is just unlucky when it comes to getting hurt, I'm sorry but no. He's injury-prone. And that's a major reason why this team probably shouldn't make any long-term investment in Brown. We all love him, but his age and injury history simply present too much risk and downside to hand him a huge contract extension.

*****

As for tonight's game, even without Brown, I'm picking the Dolphins to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 6-3.

Miami's playoff chances currently stand at 12%

Practice squad update 11/18

2009-11-18T17:11:00.002-05:00

Miami has re-signed LB J.D. Folsom to its practice squad after releasing him before last week's game.

Last week, the team also signed RB Tristan Davis to its practice squad.

Davis (5'10, 212) is an undrafted rookie out of Auburn. He is a speed-back who didn't get a whole lot of carries in college, but he is a weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. He's also very dangerous as a kick and punt returner. The return game is where he made the biggest impact in college.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
WR Julius Pruit
T Andrew Hartline
S Nate Ness
TE John Nalbone
RB Tristan Davis
LB J.D. Folsom

Reader Questions 11/17

2009-11-17T18:33:00.002-05:00

I got some good questions from a reader that I'd like to address here today:

How do you rate the Dolphins offensive line? Is the NT position a need for the 2010 draft? Do you think that Cameron Wake will continue to improve? If Ronnie is out for a while isn't that a major problem for the offense?

Let's take them one-by-one.

1. The offensive line
Just looking at how successful the running game has been overall this season, I'd have to say that the unit has been pretty good. Of course, we've seen the running game stall on more than one occasion, which has led to the offense completely bogging down. So consistency is an issue that must improve. But let's look at the unit's numbers (through Week 9):

4.42 Adjusted Line Yards (4th best in NFL)
Power Success - 81% (1st)
Stuffed - 14% (1st)
Adjusted Sack Rate - 9% (26th in NFL)

Well, those numbers paint a pretty clear picture don't they? Miami's offensive line is an elite juggernaut in the running game. Those Power and Stuffed percentages are pristine, and are huge reasons why this offense is able to sustain long drives without a dynamic passing game. If your running game can always be counted on to convert short yardage situations and likewise never get stuffed behind the line, you have a scary rushing attack.

Now the pass protection is another story. Miami's QBs have been sacked 23 times this season and the adjusted sack rate of 9% is atrocious. The offensive line definitely has played a part in this mess, but I think a lot of blame has to lie with Chad Henne's inexperience and inability to make quick reads and get rid of the ball quickly when the pocket is collapsing. He seems to be getting better in that regard, but it will take some time to develop his pocket awareness.

I will say this as well: I absolutely hammered the team's decision to sign Jake Grove this offseason. So far, he's proven me dead wrong. He's been a pleasant surprise. Of course, a lot of that has to do with him bucking a career-long trend of injury woes, so we will have to wait and see how long that continues. But right now, I'm more than happy to eat crow.

2. Nose Tackle
Although Paul Soliai has definitely made vast improvements in his play this season, the nose tackle position remains a high priority for this year's draft. That's because Miami's 3-4 defense requires a stud at the position and can't get by being simply average. Hopefully, Jason Ferguson will decide to play another year for Miami so that the team is not pressured into reaching too highly in the draft for his replacement. There will be plenty of top prospects at the position, so one or two should inevitably be available when Miami is picking. Of course, there's another scenario that Miami could explore should Ferguson decide to hang up his cleats after this year, and that's free agency. Possible nose tackle options that may be available on the free agent market include Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, Ryan Pickett, and Aubrayo Franklin among others. If Miami could land any of those guys to pair with Soliai, they could save that draft pick for some other position (cough*receiver*cough).

3. Cameron Wake
Wake's already made visible improvements from game to game this season, so I would expect that to continue. The question I have with him now is what is his ceiling? Can he be a future starter at OLB or at least a primary backup? That's hard to answer, because unlike so many first-year players, Wake is already 27 years old. He turns 28 in January. So he still definitely has plenty of good years left, but it will be critical to see how high he can push his abilities.

4. Ronnie Brown
Losing Brown hurts. He's been the team's best player this season. So his loss will obviously affect the offense, but I don't think it will hurt as much as some are fearing. And that's solely due to who his backup is. You see, according to DYAR, Ricky Williams is only trailing Ronnie by a count of 124 to 120. Those numbers are essentially equal and are good for 7th and 8th best in the league. And Ricky is actually beating Ronnie in DVOA (24.3% to 12.7%). So while we may be losing an elite running back for a game or more, we are replacing his carries with another elite back. The big problem comes when you take the leftover carries that Ricky can't take all by himself and spread them among Lex Hilliard and possibly Lousake Polite. The Wildcat will also be hindered since Ricky is not nearly as good a triggerman in the formation as Ronnie is, and someone new will have to take over Ricky's role as the Wildcat coming around on the sweep. So Brown's loss will hurt, but it's not nearly insurmountable.

2009 First Half Review and Awards

2009-11-15T09:37:00.002-05:00

Before the Dolphins embark on the second half schedule of the 2009 season today, I wanted to take one last look back on what has transpired in the first half.

And frankly, almost nothing of what has happened has surprised me.

I've seen some bloggers talk about how Miami's 3-5 record at the halfway point should mark a shift in expectations for the rest of the year - a tempering of playoff expectations if you will. But if you have been a realistic fan and observer of this team, you shouldn't have to change your expectations because this team is pretty much exactly where we expected them to be at this point.

But of course, those same people who call for a lowering of expectations only now, after the fact, are the same ones who were pumping this team up to be another double-digit win squad before the year began. That's because it's easier to ignore all the critical signs about a team and only accept the reality of the situation when the outcomes inevitably match the rational predictions.

And injuries are no excuse. Chad Pennington has never had two healthy or effective seasons in a row. Absolutely no one should have been banking on him playing up to last year's level or remaining healthy for the whole season. And guess what, he did neither. That's just what the tea leaves wrote, and anyone could have seen it coming if they opened their eyes to it. Same thing goes for Channing Crowder, Jason Ferguson, Justin Smiley, etc. These players have all been hampered recently by injuries. An incredible run of injury luck last season was not going to carry forward into this year.

Also, a lot of people simply wrote off the talk of Miami having a brutal schedule this year by saying, "Well, you can't judge a team based off last year's record, blah, blah, blah." But if you use a more predictive tool like DVOA, you'd have gotten the same prediction. And so, of course, Miami has indeed faced a brutal schedule up to this point. In fact, according to DVOA, Miami has played the toughest schedule in the league thus far. Their average opponent DVOA is 12.4%, which means Miami's schedule has been 12.4% harder than the average schedule so far. Compare that to New England, who has the 17th hardest schedule so far at 0.5% DVOA.

Thankfully, the schedule eases up considerably from here on out, with Miami's remaining opponents having an average DVOA of -2.0%. They are going to have to take advantage of that schedule if they are to have any chance of contending for the playoffs once again.

But there have been plenty of positives about this season too. Most notably has been the extensive run of play the rookies and youngsters have been receiving. That's a good sign for the future.

Let's move on to some half-season awards:

Offensive MVP: Ronnie Brown - this one's pretty obvious. The running game is this offense's weapon, and it's lead by Brown's powerful running and expert handling of the Wildcat package. The craziest thing may be that, as good as Brown's been, Ricky Williams has been nearly as good. I'd also give an honorable mention for this award to Justin Smiley who is, without a doubt, one of the premier interior linemen in the NFL. He is a joy to watch play.

Most Improved - Offense: Not really a whole lot to pick from here, but I'd go with either Chad Henne or Donald Thomas.

Most Regressed - Offense: Ted Ginn. Everyone expected some measure of improvement from Ginn this year, but he has regressed as badly as anyone on the team.

Best Rookie - Offense: Brian Hartline

Defensive MVP: Randy Starks. He's the only player putting consistent pressure on the QB, easily leading the team with 12.5 combined sacks+QB hits. He's making big plays for a defense that is sorely lacking in them. Honorable mention goes to Jason Ferguson.

Most Improved - Defense: Randy Starks

Most Regressed - Defense: Joey Porter. Just to show how far he's fallen, Tony Sparano has benched him for this week's game, and not because of injury. Porter's flat-out sucked this year. It's quite a fall from 17.5 sacks last year to this sorry output.

Best Rookie - Defense: Vontae Davis. Some will say Sean Smith, and while I won't argue with it (because I think he's been quite good) something just really bugs me about how scared of contact he is and just how much he shies away from hitting or getting hit. Also, he's yet to pick off a pass, and that was supposed to be his strong point. Davis, on the other hand, in less playing time has made some huge plays and also is not afraid at all to shed blocks and make huge hits near the line of scrimmage.

Week 10 vs. Buccaneers Prediction

2009-11-15T00:31:00.000-05:00

I'm going to keep this prediction post short and sweet because quite frankly, I'm about as sure about this game as I have been about a Dolphins game in some time.

Miami will win this game easily.

Wow. When is the last time anyone could legitimately say that and not be thought foolish?

But it's true. Miami is a pretty good team right now and the Buccaneers are putrid. There really shouldn't be any trouble leaving this week behind with a win.

If Miami should somehow struggle, or even lose, well, the season's pretty much over at that point, I'd say. But I'm not worried about it. I don't view this as a trap game or anything like that. Miami just has to go out there, put in a hard day's work, and take care of its business.

I'm confident they will. I'm picking Miami to win. My season record predicting the Dolphins is 5-3.

After last week's loss, Miami's playoff chances fell to 14%

Folsom cut; Sperry called up

2009-11-15T00:01:00.000-05:00

On Friday, the Dolphins opened up a roster spot by releasing LB J.D. Folsom who they had called up from the practice squad prior to last week's game against New England.

The open spot has been taken by TE Kory Sperry, who the team also called up from its practice squad.

Calling up Sperry may mean that Anthony Fasano's hip injury will sideline him on Sunday. If that is the case, Miami will have to rely on Joey Haynos and Sperry as the only two tight ends.

Pat White story

2009-11-14T08:21:00.002-05:00

File this in the "things most of us already knew about Pat White" folder - he's a good kid.

And the Miami Herald's Jeff Darlington received an email from a Patriots fan who attended last week's game with his son talking about Pat's notable gesture before the game began. Here's the bulk of the email:

Hello,

I am a longtime New England Patriots Season Ticketholder who attended this past Sundays game against the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots held a pregame Veterans Day ceremony honoring veterans from the greater New England area. I am not a veteran but greatly appreciate the men and woman who dedicate their lives to protecting our country.

As the National Anthem came to a close I told my son to watch to see which of the Patriot Players approached the veterans being honored to thank them for their service. Unfortunately, the Patriots disappointed me. Not one of them acknowledged these men and woman. As the veterans left the field one Miami Dolphin, Pat White, jogged over to them and shook every one of their hands. It was the highlight of the game for me to see there is at least one player in the NFL that understands what these people have given up for us.

Even if a lot of the players met some of the service men and women on the field during warmups or whatnot, it's still nice to see a player take the time to personally shake every single one of their hands following the ceremony.

I'm just surprised Pat was the only player on either team who took the time to do it.

2009 Pass Defense Review (First Half)

2009-11-12T23:17:00.002-05:00

Continuing on with my look back at the first half of this season, I want to talk about some of the defense's pass defense stats for individual players.

Below, I've created a table of every player who has recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense. Take a look:

	Scks	QH	INT	PD
Jason Allen				1
Will Allen		2	2	6
Yeremiah Bell	1.5	1		1
Tyrone Culver			1	3
Vontae Davis			2	6
Nathan Jones			1	4
Kendall Langford	1	1
Tony McDaniel				1
Phillip Merling	1.5	3
Joey Porter	2.5	5		1
Sean Smith				8
Paul Soliai				1
Randy Starks	4.5	8
Jason Taylor	5.5	3		2
Reggie Torbor		2	1	2
Cameron Wake	3.5	4
Gibril Wilson	1	3		3
TOTAL	21	32	7	35

What stands out immediately from that table?

Not sure? Look at who is not on that list - Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder.

That fact both astounds me and doesn't surprise me at all, if that's possible. What I mean by that is I know our starting inside linebackers are terrible coverage and blitz players, but to go through an entire half season without registering a single meaningful play in pass defense? Hell, even Reggie Torbor has five total stat-plays, and he's only played a fraction of the snaps as those two.

When the opposing quarterback drops back to pass, there is just a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and that's shown itself in Miami's inability to stop opposing tight ends, running backs, and receivers on underneath routes. This team needs a lot of things, but one of the most important is an inside linebacker who can rush the quarterback.

Another disappointment is Joey Porter's production. Is he simply hurt, or has he slammed into a brick wall in terms of his ability? He does have five quarterback hits in addition to his 2.5 sacks, but that total is equal to Cameron Wake, who has barely played this year. As the year moves forward, the coaches have got to give Wake more playing time. Kendall Langford also needs to step up his pass rushing.

As far as positive surprises go, Jason Taylor is on pace for double-digit sacks after his disaster season of a year ago. But most exciting has been the development of Randy Starks, who leads the team by a wide margin with a combined 12.5 sacks/QHs. He has probably been this team's defensive MVP so far this season. Starks is one of the few free agent additions that has really worked out for the team, and he's still very young so his future is bright.

Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 First Half)

2009-11-12T00:05:00.000-05:00

Instead of posting any recap of the Pats game, I'd rather start taking a few looks back on what the first half of the season has shown us about this Dolphins team.

To start things off, I'm looking at the special teams tackles numbers to get an idea of who the most active special teams players are.

Of course, Patrick Cobbs was expected to be one of the coverage unit's aces, but he unfortunately was lost for the season. Thankfully, his replacement on the roster, Lex Hilliard, has stepped in and played quite admirably in his stead, placing second on the team with nine special teams tackles.

But the biggest surprise is probably the guy leading the team in special teams tackles, Nathan Jones. It's not a surprise that he's a good special teams player, but he finished with 9 STTs last season and has already recorded ten of them this season. Not only is he stepping up big time on defense with Will Allen lost for the year, but he's stepping up big time on kick coverage units as well.

Here's how all the players stack up according to special teams tackles:

	Tkl	Ast	Comb	FF
Jason Allen	5		5
Charlie Anderson	5	1	6
Chris Clemons	2		2
Patrick Cobbs	1		1
Tyrone Culver	5	3	8
Vontae Davis	4		4
John Denney	3	1	4
Brandon Fields	1		1
J.D. Folsom	1		1
Lex Hilliard	8	1	9
Nathan Jones	7	3	10
Reggie Torbor	7	1	8
Cameron Wake	3	1	4
Erik Walden	5	1	6
Gibril Wilson	3		3

Week 9 @ Patriots Prediction

2009-11-08T00:09:00.003-05:00

Forget the Jets. This is the real divisional rivalry game that matters most.

Unfortunately, Miami is entering this game knowing that two of its defensive starters have already been taken out of the game by injury (Crowder and Ferguson). Losing Ferguson is the biggest blow. New England has a pretty good if unspectacular running game, but without Ferguson manning the trenches in the middle, New England will have a much easier time nursing any lead by turning to its ground game.

And it's likely that Miami will have to mount a comeback at some point in this game since the Pats' aerial assault is second only to the Colts, and we all saw how Indy absolutely sliced and diced this secondary up in a matter of seconds.

Not only is Belichick scheming against two rookie corners and a first-year starting QB, but he's had the bye week to make sure everything's accounted for. If Miami can sneak anything past New England's scheme this week, it would be a tremendous surprise.

For my money, the Patriots are simply the best team in the league right now, regardless of their recent cream puff schedule. Too many factors are stacking up against the Dolphins for them to pull out the victory this week.

Of course, nothing ever surprises me about these Pats-Dolphins games, and Miami should know that a win this week is crucial to staying alive in the division. That being said, I'm picking the Pats to win this one. My season record is 4-3.

After last week's win, Miami's playoff chances now stand at 28.6%

I'd also like to take a moment to quickly address a few questions I received in the wake of last week's game:

Why couldn't the Dolphins offense get anything going with the Jets? Is it possible that Ginn could be great at kick off returns or wide receiver? Just not both at the same time?

First off, the Jets defense simply played the perfect scheme against Miami's offense, and we should all look for teams to copy that game-plan in the future until Miami proves it can adapt. The Jets were consistently bringing up to 8 or 9 defenders into the box to stop the run and they just derailed the offense by doing so. They pressured from the outside, giving Henne nowhere the scramble, and Miami's receivers could do nothing against the limited coverages they were seeing. Until these WRs and TEs can start getting open and making some plays, there's no reason why any team should worry about stacking the middle of the field against Miami.

As for Ginn, I've long said that he will not be a great receiver, no matter what his other responsibilities are. Good? Maybe, but even that's in doubt right now. If anything, I think his return skills are unquestioned and he could certainly be great in that arena. Of course, being heavily involved in the offense may negatively impact his success on special teams. Was his limited snap count the reason why he exploded on those two returns against the Jets? I'm not sure. It's easy to see how asking a guy to run 9-route after 9-route is going to wear him down and cause him to lose his burst as the game wears on. If that's the case, then Ginn definitely should see a reduced number of snaps at WR. I certainly don't advocate moving him to returner full-time, as he can definitely still be an asset on offense, but the coaching staff will have to pick and choose its moments more carefully. And if that is the plan moving forward, I think Ginn should be given the punt returning duties as well. Davone Bess does nothing for me in that role.

Kershaw released, Folsom called up; injury update

2009-11-08T00:03:00.002-05:00

On the eve before playing the Patriots, the Dolphins have tweaked their roster.

Out is LB William Kershaw who had just recently been re-signed. Taking his place is practice squad member and Miami's 7th round draft pick this past spring, LB J.D. Folsom.

This move may have been precipitated by the fact that LB Channing Crowder was moved from 'doubtful' to 'out' on this week's injury report. Also downgraded to 'out' is NT Jason Ferguson.

Taking Crowder's place in the lineup will be Reggie Torbor. Paul Soliai will assume most of Ferguson's snaps.

Nalbone signed to practice squad

2009-11-04T00:01:00.001-05:00

I wasn't sure that TE John Nalbone was going to clear waivers after Miami cut him last week.

But he did. And now he's back with the Dolphins on their practice squad. The team released WR James Robinson to make room for him.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
LB J.D. Folsom
WR Julius Pruit
TE Kory Sperry
T Andrew Hartline
S Nate Ness
TE John Nalbone

Hey Nos!

2009-11-03T20:59:00.002-05:00

In honor of Joey Haynos' second career TD, I'm posting the below video - again.

The video and song are so good I may have to start posting it every time he scores.

Nate Jones!

Week 8 @ Jets Recap

2009-11-02T00:47:00.003-05:00

Time to get out the brooms because that was a J-E-T-S Sweep, Sweep, Sweep!!!

Let's get right to the bullets, shall we?

First of all, Miami certainly got outplayed in many (most) areas of this game, but not all of them. So Rex Ryan, you huge steamin pile, stop trying to convince yourself and everyone around you that your team "totally outplayed" the Dolphins today. Did your special teams outplay Miami's? No. Did our quarterback continually throw horrible worm-burners on third downs? No. Did our running backs forget to hold onto the ball? No. Did your offensive line ever have Miami's front seven on its heels? No. So Rex, learn what the word "totally" means and pull your head out of you-know-where while you're at it.
In keeping with the theme of the Jets seemingly living in some alternate reality, it's rare to see a team this out of tune with their actual talent and performance level. You'd think a team that just lost to the same team twice within the span of a month would realize that they are not better than that team. Basically, the Jets players and coaches are acting like most of the fans of the Dolphins I criticize for being irrational homers. The Jets built these Dolphins games up so much, that it is just an absolute pleasure to know that they lost both of them and now will have live with that festering truth for another whole year. And no amount of foolish talk will cover up the fact that these two losses will eat away at the Jets.
Yeremiah Bell is to blame for that TD run by Sanchez. He's the outside contain guy and he never even thought about looking for Sanchez to run. He simply ran right into the backfield which wouldn't have done anything even if it was a handoff.
Ah, Jay Feely. You also did fancy yourself something of a tough guy didn't you? You wanted to be the guy who broke the mold on kickers not being tough enough to run down the field and make a tackle on returns. And I'll give you credit - you are pretty tough and you can make tackles, but the thing is, as the kicker you've got to make those tackles when they come to you as the safety man and not simply run headlong into the pile trying to manufacture 'glory' to stroke your ego. By abandoning your duty as the safety valve and running right into the crowd, you allowed Ted Ginn to slip outside and have a free race to the endzone without you challenging his angle. So thanks for being so irresponsible Jay.
Oh, and Ted Ginn, thank you for not losing your return abilities along with your confidence and good hands.
On a negative note for Miami, I can't recall seeing another secondary player as averse to contact as Sean Smith is. We all knew he wasn't a physical player, but this is getting embarrassing. Whenever the opposing team throws a screen pass or a toss sweep to Smith's side, he either runs himself out of the play to avoid getting blocked, or just gets tossed aside. He puts no effort into beating his blocker. He's also a pretty poor tackler in space it seems. He needs to watch how Vontae Davis and Nathan Jones and Will Allen lay wood on people, in the run game and pass game. As much flak as Ted Ginn gets for avoiding contact, Smith should be getting just as much. Being a corner isn't all about ball skills.
Speaking of the secondary, finally the coaches realized that what Gibril Wilson does best is blitz the QB. He, Bell, and Jones are lethal when rushing the QB.
It was nice to see Matt Roth back on the field if for no other reason than it will lessen the amount of times I have to watch Joey Porter get embarrassed as an edge setter against the run. Seriously, it looks like he's not even trying when a run comes his way (and a lot of them do since opposing teams know he's helpless to stop them). The tackle usually just kicks out, gets his hands on Joey, and that's it - Porter's completely out of the play, with a huge gap between the tackle and guard for the running back to saunter through. With Roth in there, he works to shove the tackle back and closes that lane off quick, then sheds the block and can make a tackle or string the play out until help arrives.
The offensive line was bad in the running game today, which is pretty inexcusable when the Jets are without Kris Jenkins. As far as pass protection goes, they were just OK. Chad Henne really needs to work on making his reads quicker and not taking so many sacks. He also has to be more aware of the pocket. On one sack he just kept shuffling to the left. Jake Long had his guy beat, but Henne just kept shuffling right past Long where the defender had an easy sack.
How about this trio of guys coming up big - Randy Starks, Paul Soliai, and Brandon Fields. Fields' booming leg gave the Dolphins defense a fighting chance in the field position battle all throughout the first half. Starks has been a force as a pass rusher this year, not just in this game. And Soliai is taking his opportunities and proving to this coaching staff that they may not need to look outside the organization anymore for a future nose tackle replacement. I've been impressed with him so far this year.
Oh and one last thing. I've already seen some Jets fans calling Braylon Edwards a "Dolphins killer." First of all, you have to actually beat the Dolphins to be called that. Secondly, maybe if the Jets still had that special teams ace (Jason Trusnik) they traded away for Edwards they wouldn't have been the first team to give up two kick returns of 100 or more yards in one game.

What we'll be seeing today...

2009-11-01T11:28:00.003-05:00

Week 8 @ Jets Prediction

2009-10-31T21:43:00.003-04:00

It's a little strange to be facing the Jets again so soon after the first meeting.

But the good news is that Miami was able to take care of business the last time. Sure, Miami has lost Will Allen and Patrick Cobbs for the season since then, but New York has lost Kris Jenkins which is a much more important loss.

Miami ran the ball down New York's throat a few weeks ago, and now they are without one of the premier nose tackles in the league so the running should come just as easily this game. And despite the game being a home affair for the Jets, Mark Sanchez has shown to have some early issues with cold/windy games.

As long as Chad Henne keeps his wits about him and takes care of the ball, Miami should win this game, so I'm going with the Dolphins. My season record stands at 3-3.

Also, the Dolphins' playoff chances now stand at 13.5%

I'd also like to take a quick moment to answer a reader's question. The question:

Does bringing Henne out of a few series, to run the wildcat, throw off his rhythm and not allow him to get a feel for the game? It didn't seem to have any impact on Pennington at all.

Truthfully, I don't think so. He's never off the field for entire series at a time, and this is a hugely run-heavy offense anyway. So, really, what's the difference between him jogging to the sideline for a play of two instead of handing the ball off a couple times in a row? Good quarterbacks need to be able to come onto the field and make big throws at any time of the game. For instance, no one wonders whether a QB is out of rhythm when he unexpectedly makes his way onto the field following an interception by his team's defense. If the Wildcat is a problem for a QB, then chances are they are simply not focused enough. I don't get that sense from Henne right now.

Nalbone waived

2009-10-31T15:48:00.002-04:00

According to Adam Caplan's Twitter account, he has been told that the Dolphins have waived rookie tight end John Nalbone.

It's uncertain who was brought in to replace Nalbone, but one possibility is that the team activated LB Matt Roth from the NFI list.

I was pretty high on Nalbone coming out of college, albeit a little surprised that Miami took him in the fifth round. I would hope that he clears waivers and finds his way back on Miami's practice squad, but he may get claimed by another team.

Nalbone's ceiling is high (I believe he can be a future starter) and it's no surprise that he required a lot of development time. It would be disappointing to see Miami give up on him so soon and essentially waste a fifth-round pick.

Anthony Fasano and Joey Haynos are now the only tight ends left on the roster. TE Kory Sperry is on the practice squad.

Kershaw brought back; practice squad update

2009-10-30T19:42:00.002-04:00

With Will Allen being placed on season-ending Injured Reserve, the Dolphins signed LB William Kershaw earlier this week.

At the time he was signed, there was speculation that his addition was due in part to an injury suffered by Channing Crowder that might keep him out of this week's game against the Jets. It looks like that speculation was spot on, as Crowder missed all three practices this week and has been listed as doubtful on the injury report.

Kershaw was a part of Miami's practice squad and active roster last season, and he was one of the team's last cuts in training camp this year. He is an asset on special teams, but it's questionable whether he will be active on game day.

In Crowder's absence, Akin Ayodele will assume Crowder's role while Reggie Torbor will move into the starting lineup in Ayodele's position.

Also, there has been some practice squad activity over the past few weeks.

Early in October, the team added DT Derrick Jones to the practice squad and released LB K.C. Asiodu. And earlier this week, the team released Jones, to make room for S Nate Ness. Ness is an undrafted rookie from Arizona.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
LB J.D. Folsom
WR James Robinson
WR Julius Pruitt
TE Kory Sperry
T Andrew Hartline
S Nate Ness

Oh crap...looks like Miami has a new problem

2009-10-29T13:03:00.000-04:00

Week 7 vs. Saints Recap

2009-10-26T00:01:00.001-04:00

Everyone's said it already, but that game was definitely a tale of two halves. Let's just jump right into it:

First of all, this team may not be designed to take such a huge early lead (hence it being so surprising) but it sure as hell is built to ice the game away once a three touchdown lead has been established. Remember, "You run when you win, not win when you run." And that's because when you are three TDs ahead, the only thing you should be thinking about is sapping every second of clock time possible with each and every drive, and that means lots and lots of running. So where the hell did the running attack go in the second half? I realize Miami's lead had been cut to two touchdowns at that point, but the philosophy still holds. I think passing wins games in the NFL, but when you have a two TD lead (and a first-year starting QB and crappy receivers and Sedrick Ellis gone with an injury, etc etc) why are you passing more than running?
Also, Tony Sparano, why the hell did you take that timeout right before halftime which allowed Sean Payton to rethink kicking a field goal and instead make the right decision to go for the TD, which of course Brees converted? I don't care how good you think Miami's defense is, just give them the three points and go into halftime up three scores. You could literally sense the air being let out of Miami after that score. It was like a dark cloud just suddenly appeared right over them.
Two players whose play this game (and pretty much all season) was utterly unacceptable? Gibril Wilson and Ted Ginn. First Wilson. I knew Wilson was a lousy coverage safety, but I thought for sure he was at least a sure tackler. I guess I was wrong. Look, I know Jeremy Shockey is a big dude, but running side by side with him downfield for about 40 yards while you try to hold hands with him rather than tackle him was despicable. And of course, you followed that up by completely blowing a critical tackle on Reggie Bush on third down, letting him get free for the first. And Ted Ginn? Yeah, you drew a lot of oohs and ahhs with your nice TD against the Jets, but what else have you really done this year? Nothing. In fact, your numerous drops in key situations are killing this team. I've really criticized Ginn in the past, calling him out as not being a No. 1 WR, and still everyone wanted to stick up for him and said "Wait, wait, he's going to have that third year breakout season that every WR always has." Well, where are those people now? Ginn's first bobble resulted in the INT that was returned for six. And he followed that up by dropping several more routine balls. This guy shrinks under pressure.
Since we know our safeties are so bad in coverage, why aren't we using them on blitzes more?! At least we know they can do that well, and it seems to work pretty effectively.
Stop trying to paint Will Allen's season ending ACL injury as good news. There's a difference between a silver lining and good news.
There definitely were some good performances by the Dolphins in this game (Ricky Williams, Jason Taylor), but the team as a whole was just completely different in the second half. It played scared. It played like it knew the Saints were the better team. And most importantly, the team strayed from its strengths which of course played directly to the Saints' advantage.

Week 7 vs. Saints Prediction

2009-10-25T00:07:00.003-04:00

I am very happy to have been wrong in my prediction for Miami's last game. Miami's awesome Monday night victory pushed my season record to 2-3.

And now that the bye week is over, Miami faces its toughest challenge yet...by far.

If we thought Indy's offense was potent - well, New Orleans' is better. So even if the Dolphins execute the same offensive game plan as they did against the Colts to perfection, holding the ball for over 40 minutes and making good on scoring opportunities, 20 minutes is more than enough for Drew Brees and company to overcome any deficit no matter the size.

And make no mistake, the Saints will score their points. And Miami will likely score its share as well (though the Saints defense is surprisingly elite so far this year). If Miami is going to have any chance in this game it will come down to their defense finally stepping up and shutting an opposing passing attack down, even if for only a drive or two. I'm not confident they can accomplish that right now. The safeties and linebackers are just begging other teams to throw right at them.

Miami played a nearly perfect offensive game against the Colts and still lost. The margin for error is that small. And now they play an even better team. It's hard to expect perfection again coupled with a better defensive effort. Big special teams plays could seriously help Miami's chances, but they haven't proven themselves capable of those yet either.

I have to pick the Saints to win this week.

After the win over the Jets and last week's bye, Miami's playoff chances have grown to 15.5%

Lydon Murtha signed; Murphy cut

2009-10-20T23:35:00.003-04:00

Well, the Shawn Murphy experiment ended today, when the team cut him in order to make room for T Lydon Murtha, who they signed off of Detroit's practice squad.

This goes down as a pretty significant draft miss by Parcells and Ireland as Murphy cost the team a fourth-round pick. And not only a fourth-round pick, but the team actually traded up in the round just to make sure they got him! So that's two picks gone in return for absolutely nothing. Very disappointing. Maybe he can return on the practice squad and try to redeem his value a little bit.

Murtha (6'7, 315) was a seventh-round draft pick of the Lions in this year's draft out of Nebraska.

He was a two-year starter who saw playing time at both left and right tackle. His college career was derailed at times by multiple injuries. He missed his entire freshmen season with calf, shoulder, and hamstring problems, and then missed a combined eight games over the past two seasons with foot injuries and a staph infection. He is the definition of injury-prone.

He does have the huge size that the front office craves in its tackles, and he has amazing athleticism. He's a pure project player at this point who is going to need time to develop. As with Kory Sheets, I believe the rule is that when a team signs a player from another team's practice squad, that team must then keep that player on its 53-man roster for at least three weeks.

Here is SI's draft analysis of Murtha:

Murtha turned heads with his dramatic workout at the combine, yet his game film tells a different story. He's very raw in many offensive line techniques, and he needs to improve his overall fundamentals. Murtha will likely be over-drafted because of his measurables, yet he is a prospect far from NFL ready.

Week 5 vs. Jets Recap

2009-10-14T00:27:00.000-04:00

Quick hits on the fantastic Monday night game:

I think it's safe to say that win-or-lose, Miami is one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the NFL, and in recent memory.
New minority-owner Marc Anthony did a tremendous job singing the pre-game national anthem. Really good stuff.
Lousaka Polite had a great game throwing huge blocks for Ronnie and Ricky.
That PI call on Will Allen was a disgraceful call.
What's with all of the people getting so outraged over the fact that the referee made the first penalty announcement in Spanish? Talk about xenophobia.
Anyone who continues to call Miami's use of the Wildcat a gimmick, or a joke, is just flat-out ignorant. You can call the Jets' pathetic attempt at it a gimmick, but Miami is clearly on another level with this stuff, and it's simply a huge, regular, and effective part of their offensive game plan. Deal with it.
Chad Henne made a declaration in this game. I have had my doubts about him, and one game doesn't change everything, but it certainly changes some things about how I look at him. His poise is unbelievable. He essentially led this offense on three separate comebacks in the fourth quarter.
Ted Ginn and Anthony Fasano, welcome to the season. Nice of you to finally show up.
Not enough praise can be given to this offensive line and tight ends for the spectacular job they did in protecting Henne and giving him plenty of time to make throws. That being said, Jake Grove got used and abused on more than one occasion by Kris Jenkins - the kind of big NT in the AFC East that he was specifically brought in here to beat.
Of special note - Justin Smiley was a freaking snow plow on that game-winning Wildcat run, pulling from his left guard spot and absolutely exploding open a running lane for Ronnie to follow straight to paydirt.
I know I'm not the only fan who was sweating bullets when out of nowhere, Sparano decides that the game-deciding drive with less than four minutes in the fourth quarter against a divisional rival was the perfect time to put Pat White in the game for his first snaps of the day. I think my heart skipped a beat when he almost tripped over his own feet before that first down run. Very lucky that those plays didn't backfire, but I like the idea of getting him more involved over the next few games.

Cobbs' season over; Sheets signed

2009-10-14T00:05:00.001-04:00

When Patrick Cobbs ran a reverse out of the Wildcat formation late in Monday night's game against the Jets, he finished the play on the ground out of bounds and in obvious pain.

It's now been revealed that he tore his ACL and has been placed on Injured Reserve, ending his season.

Even though Cobbs was the third string running back, his loss is still significant. Cobbs made an impact in almost every phase of the game - particularly as a key contributor to the Wildcat and an all-around special teams ace. Those roles will not be easily filled.

Miami's decision to keep four RBs to start the season will now pay off, as Lex Hilliard moves up the depth chart. In Cobbs' absence, Ted Ginn should begin to see all of the kickoff return duties, which actually should be an upgrade.

I thought that Miami would use Cobbs' open roster spot to active Matt Roth from the NFI list once he's eligible after this week, but the team went ahead and signed RB Kory Sheets off of the 49ers' practice squad. I believe the rule about signing another team's practice squad players is that Miami must now keep Sheets on the 53-man roster for a minimum of three weeks.

Sheets (5'11, 208) was an undrafted free agent out of Purdue this past year. And if you remember, I actually pointed out that he would have been a better option to bring on board for training camp than Anthony Kimble due to his pretty good Speed Score of 104.2, 6th best in this past year's running back draft class.

Sheets is not a bruiser; he's a finesse back who excels as a receiving option. Here is one pre-draft analysis of him:

Sheets is an effective north/south ball handler who can create his own yardage. He has been productive as a running back and pass catcher, and Sheets offers a lot of potential at the next level as a third-down back/situational runner.

Sheets was a pretty good kick returner in college, so perhaps the coaches are looking for him to contribute in that area.

just because...

2009-10-12T18:40:00.002-04:00

Week 5 vs. Jets Prediction

2009-10-12T10:18:00.003-04:00

Let me start off this prediction post by addressing a question I received from a reader about tonight's matchup:

Do you think Wake will have the same success with the Jets that he had with the Bills? Although the Jets look like they have improved overall from last year, how strong is the Jets defense against the run?

It would be a miracle if Wake could produce the same huge game two weeks in a row. For starters, Joey Porter will most likely be back in the starting lineup, which will bump Wake back down the depth chart and limit Wake's opportunities to rush the QB. Secondly, Wake won't have the pleasure of facing an injury-ravaged offensive line (which wasn't spectacular to begin with) like he did versus the Bills. And finally, a lot of Miami's pass rush last week came much easier than normal because they got out to such a big lead so early. Essentially, that allowed the outside linebackers to just tee up and rush the QB for most of the game without fear of having to defend against a draw play or other run play since they knew Buffalo would be forced to pass on most plays from there on out.

I just don't see Miami getting out to such a big lead this week, and so the OLBs won't be placed in as many obvious passing downs.

As far as how the Jets fare against the run, Football Outsiders has their rush defense at -6.5% DVOA (remember, negative is good when it comes to defense), which is 15th best in the league. So the Jets have a truly average rush defense so far this year, falling right in the middle of the pack. They can be run on. It's their pass defense, at -30.3% DVOA (4th in NFL) which scares me.

Miami is going to try to win this game on the ground, as per usual, I would expect. But if they fall behind, they are going to have no choice but to pass the ball, and with Henne under center against this defense, that may be extremely difficult.

As for my prediction, I think Miami improved their outlook tremendously last week, but that performance must be taken with a grain of salt when you see that the Bills are so bad (losing to Cleveland 6-3!). On the other hand, I don't think the Jets are as good as they have appeared so far this year. However, I look back to Miami's two games against the Ravens last year and see how completely Rex Ryan's defense shut down Miami's offense, and that forces me to pick the Jets to win this week, (although I like Miami's chances a little better if Cotchery can't play). For the record, I'm 2-2 at picking the Dolphins games this year.

After last week's win, Miami's playoff chances now stand at 4.5%.

2009 Pass Defense Review (First Quarter)

2009-10-10T21:17:00.002-04:00

Yesterday, I posted a review of Miami's special teams coverage tackles through the first quarter of the season.

Today, I'd like to share with you a review of some individual pass defense statistics. Below, I've created a table of every player who has recorded a sack, quarterback hit, interception, or pass defense.

In today's NFL, games are won and lost primarily by passing and stopping the pass. At 1-3, it's obvious that Miami's defense has not done an adequate job in this respect.

Here are the numbers:

	Scks	QH	INT	PD
Will Allen			2	4
Yeremiah Bell		1		1
Tyrone Culver				2
Vontae Davis			1	2
Nathan Jones				1
Kendall Langford	1	1
Phillip Merling	1	2
Joey Porter	2	2
Sean Smith				5
Randy Starks	1	1
Jason Taylor	3	2		1
Reggie Torbor		1
Cameron Wake	3	2
Gibril Wilson				1
TOTAL	11	12	3	17

Those numbers are pretty middling to say the least, and they look even worse when you consider that 6 of the sacks and 6 of the quarterback hits came in last week's game against Buffalo. That's half of this team's pass rush generated in a single game. Not to mention that all three INTs came in that one game as well.

And when Tryone Culver has more PDs than Yeremiah Bell or Gibril Wilson, you know the starting safeties are making zero plays in coverage.

These numbers absolutely have to improve if Miami is to have any chance at staying alive in this division.

I'll continue to keep track of these numbers and update them again at the midseason point.

Special Teams Coverage Review (2009 First Quarter)

2009-10-09T00:08:00.000-04:00

For the past two years I've been keeping tabs throughout the season on which players are making the most tackles on special teams.

I do this because special teams tackles are rarely reported, and they are a good sign of which players are the most active on special teams.

Jason Allen and Patrick Cobbs were the unit's leaders last season, with late-season addition Erik Walden adding another weapon.

Walden had a big game against the Bills, but it's Lex Hilliard who has taken the early lead in special teams tackles. And that's great to see, since keeping a fourth running back on the roster is a luxury. Knowing that Hilliard can make a big impact on game day as a core special teams player is his ticket to sticking around for a while.

Here's how the players stack up according to special teams tackles:

	Tkl	Ast	Comb	FF
Jason Allen	2		2
Charlie Anderson	1		1
Patrick Cobbs	1		1
Tyrone Culver	1	1	2
Vontae Davis	1		1
John Denney	2	1	3
Brandon Fields	1		1
Lex Hilliard	6		6
Nathan Jones	2	1	3
Reggie Torbor	3		3
Cameron Wake	1		1
Erik Walden	3	1	4
Gibril Wilson	2		2

Week 4 vs. Bills Recap

2009-10-06T16:06:00.002-04:00

I think that's what everyone was looking for - a complete team effort, with no one unit sabotaging the efforts of everyone else.

It might be a little easier to have confidence in this team going forward now.

Let's get to the bulletpoints:

Most obvious: The running game is a beast. Got to give props to the offense line in this regard. Also, Ronnie Brown is currently leading the league in DYAR, with 133. He's second in the league in DVOA (34.6%) behind Marion Barber. Needless to say, that's fantastic. Ricky Williams is also playing out of his mind, with 64 DYAR (5th) and a 20.7% DVOA (9th).
Chad Henne: It didn't really matter who we had back there this game. Pat White and Tyler Thigpen would have won this game as well. That said, the game did show a lot of areas that Henne needs to improve in. He may have a strong arm, but so far, it seems like he has a tendency to overthrow his deep balls. He also doesn't have a good feel for the rush. He took six sacks this game - and quite a few could be blamed on him not feeling the rush and moving around enough to get the pass off quickly. He's got to improve on that pocket awareness and getting the ball out quickly. I think a lot of it stems from his problems making multiple reads downfield at this point. It's taking him too long.
Ted Ginn: Apparently the coaches were trying to send a message to Ginn by essentially benching him for most of the second half. If he can't get things turned out around immediately, this funk might linger for a long time.
The pass rush: Cameron Wake showed up big time with Joey Porter out of the lineup. Jason Taylor also made his presence felt. It was nice to see, but we have to remember they were playing against a crappy Bills offensive line beset by injuries. Let's see if they can repeat their performance against a decent unit.
Secondary: The team needed playmakers in the secondary, and that's exactly what they got with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Kudos to Will Allen as well for his two-pick game.
Gibril Wilson is still missing tackles.
I absolutely love the playcalling to go for it on fourth-and-ones or less.
I care much more about how good this team is at stopping the pass than it is at stopping the run. You win when you can stop the pass. I think the brief sample size of Miami's season to this point will back that up.

Week 4 vs. Bills Prediction

2009-10-03T20:06:00.002-04:00

Unfortunately, my prediction from last week came true, so I'm standing at 2-1 on the year for predicting Miami's games.

This week, Miami faces a much easier matchup than the Chargers, getting the Bills at home.

The Bills are facing a laundry list of injuries, most notably one of their starting tackles, Demetrius Bell, as well as their two starting safeties Donte Whitner and Bryan Scott.

That's good news since Miami may be without Joey Porter and they'll have Chad Henne making his first start.

The thing is, this team has done nothing to convince me that they will all of a sudden change course just because a new QB is under center. In fact, I'm always leery when it comes to QBs making their first starts. Henne is being given a prime opportunity to make a good first impression against a poor Buffalo defense, but will he deliver in his first try? More importantly, will the rest of the team be up to the challenge? The entire team hasn't played a good game together yet. Until they do, I'm not comfortable picking them to win, even though this game looks oh-so-winnable.

So, I'm picking the Bills to win.

After last week's loss, Miami's playoff chances now stand at 0.9%.

K.C. Asiodu added to practice squad

2009-09-30T12:50:00.003-04:00

The team made an adjustment to its practice squad today, releasing LB Danny Lansanah and signing LB K.C. Asiodu.

Asiodu (6'3, 240) was an undrafted free agent out of Central Oklahoma this year who spent training camp with the Rams.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
LB J.D. Folsom
WR James Robinson
WR Julius Pruitt
TE Kory Sperry
T Andrew Hartline
LB K.C. Asiodu

Phins trade for Tyler Thigpen

2009-09-29T19:56:00.002-04:00

Looking to replace Chad Pennington, who was placed on Injured Reserve, the Dolphins traded an undisclosed 2010 draft pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in return for QB Tyler Thigpen.

The success of this trade depends in large part on what round pick the Dolphins gave up to get Thigpen. The Chiefs had been asking for as high as a fourth round pick for him earlier this year, and it would be ridiculous for Miami to pay that much for him. I really hope they simply traded back to the Chiefs the "future considerations" (aka probably a 2010 7th round pick) that the Chiefs gave to Miami in last year's draft.

But let's get to know Tyler Thigpen.

He's a third year veteran out of Coastal Carolina who is 25 years old. He stands 6'1, 224 lbs.

He is essentially a spread QB, much like Pat White. When Thigpen took over in Kansas City last year, the team implemented its "Pistol" offense - essentially a shotgun formation where the QB is in a shorter dropback position. Counting the pistol and shotgun snaps together, Thigpen took an astounding 359 of 420 pass attempts away from center (85.5%). And to little surprise, the Chiefs performed significantly better from these formations than when Thigpen operated from under center.

Thigpen is known to throw a lot of short passes, but he's got a strong arm and he's a good scrambler. He ran 62 times last year for 386 yards and 3 TDs, and a 15.2% DVOA. But he also finished with a below-average passing DVOA of -6.2% and a horrendous completion rate of 54.8%.

Football Outsiders also found a disturbing trend in Thigpen's performance by quarter. His DVOAs for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters were 25.1%, -6.6%, -10.5%, and -25.2% respectively. That means that he regularly started off games extremely hot and proceeded to regress to horrible play by the fourth quarter.

Thigpen isn't going to challenge Henne for the starting QB of the Dolphins. But his skills are so similar to Pat White's that he may end up becoming the backup before season's end since he has more experience. He's still just 25 years old so he has plenty of room to grow and he will need to if he wants to stick around.

For those interested, here are Thigpen's KUBIAK projections for this season (assuming 16 games played):

	Att	Comp	C%	Yds	TD	INT	FUM	NY/P	DVOA	Runs	Yds	TD
Thigpen	457	229	50.2%	2897	18	17	12	5.5	-14.8%	57	294	2

Thank you, Chad; Hello, Chad

2009-09-29T12:23:00.004-04:00

In just a little over one year, Chad Pennington managed to become one of my favorite Dolphins players ever.

Now, it's very likely that his latest shoulder injury (torn capsule) is going to knock him out for the rest of the season. That's sad news for anyone, but even more so for a guy who has triumphantly made his way back from two prior surgeries on the same shoulder already. This has got to be demoralizing for him. Whatever his future may hold with this franchise or any team, I wish him the best of luck.

I think Ethan Skolnick may have summed up Pennington's impact the best:

What he did was bring respectability back to the franchise, and give fans one of the most unexpected, enjoyable seasons in South Florida history. He didn't do it alone, but he had a large part in it. And in my 14 years in this business, I have never covered an athlete who better understood what his responsibilities were, to the organization, the public and the media.

Pennington's a true class act and a great player - the kind of guy it's always easy to root for. Thanks, Chad.

*****

Hello, Chad. Chad Henne, I mean.

Now's the time when we see if this team will be able to return to contention next year, or if more years must be wasted as this franchise continues to search for its franchise quarterback.

Had Pennington's injury not been so severe, the team would have faced a decision as to how to move forward with the choice between Henne and Pennington, but that decision has been made for them. It's Henne's team right now and for the rest of the year - 13 games to put it all on the table.

No one should be anointing Henne as the franchise QB yet because quite honestly he hasn't proven anything. I'm certainly not sold on him. But the potential is definitely there. I do believe that.

As Dave Hyde declared:

Quarterback of the future? We'll see. He's the quarterback of the present.

And that's how we, as fans, must approach this. He's the QB of the present looking for a promotion. Nothing's guaranteed.

For those interested, here are the KUBIAK projections for Henne this season (based on 16 games played):

	Att	Comp	C%	Yds	TD	INT	FUM	NY/P	DVOA	Runs	Yds	TD
Henne	455	280	61.5%	3360	17	13	8	6.2	5.5%	15	61	0

If he could produce at that rate over the course of the rest of the season, I think it would have to be seen as a major success. The numbers aren't spectacular but they would show that he likely isn't going to be a bust, and that's the most important thing to find out now. The significant leaps forward will hopefully happen next offseason. Right now, he just has to show that he's not another John Beck or A.J. Feeley.

By the way, for comparisons sake, a 5.5% DVOA would be akin to the performances put up by Matt Cassel, Joe Flacco, and Sage Rosenfels last season. Not great by any stretch of the imagination, but definitely something to build on.

Week 3 @ Chargers Recap

2009-09-28T00:00:00.007-04:00

I got an email right before the game on Sunday which read:

"If the Dolphins fail to win against the Chargers, at what point do you consider giving Henne a shot?"

Well, it looks like that question has been answered for us.

With Chad Pennington likely to miss at least a game and probably more than one with his shoulder injury, Chad Henne's chance to establish himself as this team's starting quarterback is starting right now. But before I get into a discussion of Henne, let's talk briefly about the game.

Even with all of their significant injuries, the Chargers were still the better team - and it wasn't really close either. That's a bit scary and shows just how much of an aberration last season was and how much farther this team still has to go.
The offense consistently bogs down in the redzone because the threat of a pass to a wide receiver is laughable in those areas. Who on this team is honestly a threat down near the goal line? No one. And so while Ronnie and Ricky might be able to carve out huge chunks of yardage between the twenties against most teams, their job gets a whole lot harder down inside the ten. It also doesn't help that Anthony Fasano has essentially disappeared this year, which is very disappointing after such a fantastic season last year.
The middle of the field is still wide open against this defense.
The run defense did an excellent job bottling up Sproles and preventing him from seeing any kind of daylight.

Now I'm going to veer away from the game talk for a bit because I'd just like to point out how hypocritical a lot of writers and fans are who write about and comment on this team. In the offseason, all I heard from pretty much every Dolphins blogger or commenter was how strong this team was across the board. I was amazed at how easily some pretty obvious areas of concern were simply whitewashed and explained away. (ex. Gibril Wilson might struggle in his switch to FS? Pish posh! He played FS for a team that won the Super Bowl - he must be great!; or, Ted Ginn is in his third year and we all know every WR in his third year suddenly becomes elite, despite the fact that nothing in his statistical profile would support that notion; or CB Eric Green will make a fine CB for this team - all he needed was a new environment and a chance to show what he's really got, etc.)

(Please note the dripping sarcasm in the previous examples)

I strive to be as honest as possible about the team and I'm not afraid to call out problem areas when I see them, even if it's the offseason and I'm simply projecting what is likely to happen. And see, that's the problem. Far too many fans (and writers who are fans) are so clouded by blissful ignorance that they can't accept that something might be an issue until the season rolls around and slaps them in the face with a proclamation of, "HEY, THIS HAS BECOME AN ISSUE!" Anyone can watch a game and see what is happening and then choose to react to something negative after the fact. It takes a tad bit more prescience and willingness to suspend hope in favor of reality in order to get a sense of these things before the season rolls around.

Now I'm not saying that I'm always right about the predictions I do make. But I'm certainly more accurate than the majority of writers and commenters who meet every story with a stamp of approval and who find ways to overvalue every player on the roster. What's the point of even talking about the team during the offseason if everyone's automatic response to any personnel move or bit of news is met with an unthinking, "Yup, that's a good move," or "Wow, according to every player interview I've heard, it seems like the entire team has made great leaps forward in their abilities. I smell Super Bowl!"

The disgusting thing is that the people who actually stuck their necks out and criticized certain moves and players during the offseason were themselves heavily criticized by the head in the sand crowd. Only now, it seems that almost all those people who wouldn't stand to hear any criticism of their darling perfect team back then have already made the abrupt switch in mentality when conveniently confronted with reality. Talk about a lack of conviction!

*****

Also, after this game I read something that almost made me spit out the water I was drinking. The writer (I won't point them out specifically) wondered whether Miami's last two games might show that the NFL is in transition - from a run-oriented league to a pass-oriented one.

Are. You. Kidding. Me?

Actually, I shouldn't be all that surprised, since this is one of the most common (yet ridiculous) notions that a lot of fans have about the game. Too many people believe that the grinding ground games of the 1970s represent the traditional style of the NFL and that a pass-oriented mode of play is some new-fangled idea that is sweeping in a new era of play. That couldn't be farther from the truth. I'll let Football Outsiders explain it best:

Most of the current crop of NFL analysts came of age or actually played the game during the 1970s. They believe that the run-heavy game of that decade is how football is meant to be, and today's pass-first game is an aberration. As we addressed in an essay in last year's book on the history of NFL stats, it was actually the game of the 1970s that was the aberration. The seventies were far more slanted towards the run than any era since the arrival of Paul Brown, Otto Graham, and the Cleveland Browns in 1946. Optimal strategies from 1974 are not optimal strategies for today's game.

The NFL has been a passing league for a long long time. So the answer to that writer is "No." The league is not in a transition away from run-heavy tactics in favor of passing. That transition has already been made. Those teams (like our Dolphins!) who are based on pounding the ball on the ground as often as possible are the ones clinging to a past that doesn't exist anymore. And no disrespect meant, but it's no coincidence that the guy running the franchise (Parcells) is straight out of the era when run dominance was in vogue more than any other time in history. Unfortunately, that style of play may not mesh well in today's game.

Well, I've rambled enough for one post, but check back later when I get a post up about Chad Henne and what the Dolphins should do at QB for the rest of the year.

Week 3 @ Chargers Prediction

2009-09-27T00:00:00.000-04:00

Unfortunately, my prediction turned out to be right last week, as the Dolphins fell to the Colts. So now I'm 1-1 on the season.

This week, Miami has to travel across the country on a short week to play one of the best teams in the league. Miami does get some relief, however, in the form of LaDainian Tomlinson, Nick Hardwick, and Travis Johnson all being ruled out with injuries. San Diego's monster nose tackle Jamal Williams is also out for the year and is being replaced by a practice squad guy.

Miami will have room to run, but in order to win, they'll need a vast improvement out of the defense, especially when it comes to covering targets in the middle of the field.

Against Philip Rivers, I'm not sure the defense can deliver. I'm picking the Chargers to win.

Also, after last week's loss, Miami's playoff odds now stand at 3.7%, a drop of 2.5%.

Reader Question: Looking ahead to 2010 Draft

2009-09-26T00:22:00.002-04:00

Here's a question I received in response to my recap of the Colts game:

From what you posted about the Colts game, are you thinking linebacker with the first or second round pick in the 2010 draft?

Linebacker is clearly a concern for this team when looking into the future, and the team's struggles thus far this season with pass rushing and covering the middle of the field have only made the spotlight brighter.

The bottom line is that aside from Channing Crowder, the starting LB unit is ancient. Akin Ayodele (30 years old), Joey Porter (32), and Jason Taylor (35) are all past their prime and the team will see only diminishing returns from them from here on out. Matt Roth (26) can help this situation by returning to full health by Week 7 when he's eligible to be activated off the NFI list and proving that he's worth keeping around for another contract. But Roth alone is not the answer to Miami's real LB woes concerning pass rush and coverage.

Ayodele and Crowder are both useless as blitzers, and they both struggle in coverage as well. The same can be said for their backup, Reggie Torbor. The team is so desperate for inside linebacker help that they are resorting to switching Charlie Anderson's position! Good luck with that. The team desperately needs an infusion of talented youth on the inside that is athletic enough to both cover well and blitz. And yes, I believe the early rounds of the draft are where they should be looking for this.

Here are the other areas of critical need that must be addressed early in next year's draft:

Nose tackle
Wide receiver
Coverage linebackers

Luckily, it seems as if each of those needs will have a good amount of top prospects to choose from.

Week 2 vs. Colts Recap

2009-09-22T17:07:00.003-04:00

Here are some thoughts about last night's game:

Despite the outcome, it's undeniable that that was a great game to watch. Highly entertaining.
Gibril Wilson looks awful, and he's quickly turning into another major free agent bust. One thing I heard a lot after Miami signed Wilson, just a year after Oakland jettisoned him after signing him to a huge contract, was that Al Davis is just a clueless guy who doesn't know how to value players. And in most cases, that's true. But one area that Al Davis has proven to be quite knowledgeable is the secondary. And if he thought it was worth it to bail on the Gibril Wilson experiment after a single year, then that scares me about what Miami got itself into. Remember, the team handed him a five-year $27.5 million contract this offseason. As it stands now, I can't see him even keeping his starting job this whole season if he keeps playing like he has. The bottom line is that he can't cover - at all. He's like Roy Williams back there, except he's playing free safety instead of strong, which exacerbates the problem that much more. And let's drop the ridiculous logic that, "Well, he played free safety for the Giants team that won the Super Bowl, so he must be good." Yeah, because every player on every Super Bowl team has been a good player.
Miami's coverage issues go further than just Wilson sucking it up. The linebackers absolutely cannot cover tight ends either. The middle of Miami's defense is just screaming to be attacked right now. The only way to counter this would be to substitute a corner like Vontae Davis in for a linebacker and have him cover the tight end, but that will weaken the run defense.
Ted Ginn's stats look a bit better than he actually played. He makes almost all the routine plays, but he has shown no ability whatsoever to make a big play in the passing game when it really matters. On his first missed TD opportunity, he simply didn't realize where he was on the field and ended up letting the pass sail beyond his arms. On the second missed TD, he just had the ball clank right off his two hands. That was devastating. The corner was there with him, but it's not like he had his hands disrupting Ginn's catch. Ginn just flat out missed it.
Lex Hilliard is a beast on special teams coverage.
No one should expect that kind of rushing output to continue week in and week out. That was against a Colts defense that is terrible against the run, never mind that they were without Bob Sanders.
The clock management at the end of the game was horrendous. Even still, this loss is not at all Chad Pennington's fault. He played a solid game. The horrid defensive showing deserves all the blame.
Kudos to the South Florida fans for showing up and making a real home field advantage. I've never seen the stadium that full or loud before.

Week 2 vs. Colts Prediction

2009-09-21T00:15:00.002-04:00

Well, I'm 0-1 to start the season off with my predictions.

I thought Miami would be able to take advantage of Atlanta's weak defense, but they made it look like an elite unit instead.

So, suffice to say, I don't have any confidence that the Dolphins can beat the Colts on Monday night. The only chance they'll have to pull this one out is if they revert to last year's near-turnover free offensive performance. It will also help if Chad Pennington can get the receivers involved out wide and down the field to open some room inside for the running backs.

Prediction: Colts win

Also, in these weekly game prediction posts, I'll put up Football Outsider's playoff odds for Miami. After Week 1, they had a 6.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Andrew Hartline added to practice squad

2009-09-18T00:07:00.003-04:00

The Dolphins made an adjustment to their practice squad by adding rookie T Andrew Hartline and releasing G/C Mark Lewis.

Hartline (6'5, 287) was an undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan this year.

Here's one analysis of what Hartline brings to the table:

Hartline has been a durable and productive college blocker. He lacks the physical skills to start at the next level, yet his mental makeup and understanding of the position plus his versatility could help him find a spot as an inexpensive utility blocker.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
LB J.D. Folsom
WR James Robinson
LB Danny Lansanah
WR Julius Pruitt
TE Kory Sperry
T Andrew Hartline

Reader Question: What happened against ATL?

2009-09-17T13:24:00.002-04:00

To recap that mess of a game on Sunday, I'll just get right to a reader's question:

What happened to the Dolphins offense on Sunday? They were horrible. The defense did its job, just the offense couldn't move the ball hardly at all. They did have a few opportunities to put some points up, just couldn't capitalize. I hope that a better Dolphins team shows up for the Colts game. If the team that played Atlanta shows up its going to be a long day.

Well, you're absolutely right about the Dolphins offense. They played like absolute crap. But the defense made plenty of mistakes as well, so I'm not letting them off the hook.

But let's start with the offense. The name of the game is turnovers. Miami was so successful last year because they turned the ball over at a historically low rate. No one should have thought that kind of production would be the norm going forward. In fact, Miami's playoff game against the Ravens was somewhat of a correcting force in that matter and it certainly brought the team's season-long numbers back into reality. So more turnovers are to be expected. Of course, that many turnovers in a game is more than just a regression to the mean - it's just poor, sloppy play.

The good news is that the guys who committed the turnovers (Pennington and Fasano) don't have a track record of playing sloppy. I don't expect that kind of carelessness from them to become a trend. If it does become a trend, get ready to say hello to a top ten draft pick next year.

The offense was also put in awful field position all day due in large part to horrendous blocking on kick returns. Miami's average starting position was the 22 yard line.

The offensive line also deserves a huge chunk of the blame. They played like crap, pure and simple. I'm not really worried about Jake Long at this point. I am worried about Jake Grove though.

Some people are blaming the use of the Wildcat and Pat White packages as another reason why the offense stalled, but I'm not buying that. We should all know by now that the Wildcat (and I'm assuming the Pat packages) are the home run plays. They're like Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard - going to hit a bomb or strike out trying. And I'm fine with that because this offense is going to have a hard time finding its big plays elsewhere. So if we want the huge plays that come with these packages, we have to be prepared to accept it when they gain little or nothing.

Now, as for the defense, I want to give huge props to the run defense, and Phillip Merling in particular. It's a shame Merling doesn't put on the same display in practices as he does in games, otherwise the coaches would be more comfortable starting him and getting him more game snaps. But he's proven to this point in his career that he plays better than he practices. Hopefully, with more experience and added maturity he can begin to show the coaches more in practice so that they have more confidence in him come game time.

But the problems on defense came from the secondary, particularly the safeties, and particularly Gibril Wilson. I do not trust Wilson as a coverage safety whatsoever. I know how incredible he is in the run game, but he's a free safety now and is being asked to do less of what he's good at and more of what he's bad at, which as we saw against Atlanta is covering tight ends and wide receivers down the field. This defense is going to have quite a hard time getting off the field on third downs when even long third downs are hardly a challenge for the opposing offenses.

Phins remaking "The Notebook"?

2009-09-17T13:09:00.008-04:00

2009 Season and Week 1 Predictions

2009-09-12T20:56:00.003-04:00

With the Dolphins' season beginning tomorrow afternoon, now is a good time to post my predictions for the team's season as well as for their week one game versus the Falcons.

For the season, I'm predicting a 7-9 record and falling short of the playoffs. I think Miami will finish second in the AFC East behind the Patriots.

But a losing season after Miami's magical 2008 campaign doesn't mean this season would have been a lost one. All the young players need to show significant improvement and I think they'll get every opportunity to do so. If they do, Miami should set itself up in prime position to compete in 2010.

There's just too much riding against Miami this year. They have the fourth toughest schedule in the league according to opponents' projected DVOA; their immaculate health from last season will regress to the mean; and Miami's historically low turnover rate will inevitably rise. It may be too much to expect two straight seasons of complete health from Chad Pennington. It's also been shown that teams that win four or fewer games one season and ten or more the next season go on to drop an average of 2.7 games the following year. At this point, I don't see why Miami would be the exception to the rule.

All this being said, there's obviously still a decent chance that Miami could buck the trends two seasons in a row and make the playoffs again. After last year, I won't write anything off. But that doesn't mean I'm going to predict that that is what's going to happen.

As for Miami's first game against the Falcons, I actually think the Phins can and will find some way to pull this game out. Miami's defense is certainly going to face a really tough test against Michael Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Matt Ryan. But Atlanta's defense is so putrid that Pennington should be able to carve it up with ease.

If this game were at home, I'd be much more confident about predicting a win. But I am in fact predicting a win regardless.

Joey Haynos Song

2009-09-10T18:39:00.002-04:00

Found this video on Omar Kelly's blog and thought it was fantastic.

If at first you don't succeed, you're not Joey Haynos.

Drew waived; Garner promoted

2009-09-09T17:27:00.002-04:00

TE Davon Drew, who was picked up on waivers from the Ravens just a few days ago, was waived/injured with ankle issues.

In his place, the team promoted T Nate Garner from the practice squad, giving the team the more conventional nine offensive linemen.

To take Garner's spot on the practice squad, the team signed TE Kory Sperry.

Sperry is a rookie out of Colorado State who spent training camp with the Chargers. Here is SI.com's analysis of him:

Sperry is one of the better pass catchers in this years tight end class. His lack of speed as well as his prior injury will send up red flags gets. Sperry could make an NFL roster as a third tight end for an offense which consistently puts him in motion prior to the snap.

He's clearly a catch-first tight end who needs a lot of work as a blocker and may be better suited as an H-back.

The Dolphins practice squad now looks as such:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
LB J.D. Folsom
G/C Mark Lewis
WR James Robinson
LB Danny Lansanah
WR Julius Pruitt
TE Kory Sperry

Recapping the weekend's roster cuts and moves

2009-09-07T13:14:00.002-04:00

With the league mandating that all teams be down to 53 players by this past Saturday, let's look at who got cut in Miami:

Released

S Courtney Bryan
T Brandon Frye
LB William Kershaw
WR Brandon London
CB Joey Thomas
DE Rodrique Wright
T Nate Garner
CB Will Billingsley
DE Ryan Baker
G Mark Lewis
LB J.D. Folsom
WR James Robinson

In addition, Matt Roth was placed on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury List. This means that Roth will not be eligible to play or practice for the first six weeks of the season.

TE David Martin was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury that will likely require arthroscopic surgery. Many people think releasing Martin was a surprise, but I've been predicting it all offseason.

The team was also awarded TE Davon Drew off waivers from Baltimore. Drew was a fifth-round pick in this year's draft. This was NFL.com's Pick Analysis of Drew after the draft:

The Ravens grab an athletic receiving tight end with good hands and ball skills. Drew has only spent a few seasons at the position, but he has flashed enough skill as a pass catcher that he is viewed a potential H-back as a pro.

The Dolphins also filled up their practice squad with the following eight players:

DE Ryan Baker
CB Will Billingsley
LB J.D. Folsom
T Nate Garner
G/C Mark Lewis
WR James Robinson
LB Danny Lansanah
WR Julius Pruitt

Six of the practice squad players were with the Dolphins during training camp. Lansanah and Pruitt are the new additions.

As far as my roster prediction went, I think I did a pretty good job. I put Matt Roth on it even though I knew he would end up ineligible to play for the first six weeks, which explains why I left off Lex Hilliard. I also incorrectly guessed that Brandon London and Brandon Frye would make the team and that Charlie Anderson would be left off. But I correctly called the David Martin release and got the rest of the roster spot on. Not too bad.